- 1 Barcelona vs Aston Villa: a perfect European record walks into a leaking Barça back line
- 2 Barcelona: 40 league goals, but five of the last six games with a goal conceded
- 3 Aston Villa: 12 Champions League goals in three games and Jackson leading the line
- 4 Free Champions League Prediction: Barcelona vs Aston Villa
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Barcelona vs Aston Villa: a perfect European record walks into a leaking Barça back line 
Nicolas Jackson scored on six minutes and again on the hour against Manchester City on 24 October, and Aston Villa won 2-1 at Villa Park. Those two goals took him to seven for the season in all competitions, four in the Premier League and three in the Champions League, and no Villa player has more.
Villa take that form to Barcelona on Tuesday 3 November, kick-off 20:00 UK time, for the fourth round of the league phase. Unai Emery’s side are second in the 36-team table with nine points from nine and a goal difference of +9. They won 3-2 at Club Brugge on the opening night, beat Fenerbahçe 6-0 at Villa Park on 14 October and saw off Viking 3-1 a week later.
Barcelona have six points and sit eighth. Hansi Flick’s side beat Feyenoord 5-1 and won 4-1 at Galatasaray, but lost 4-2 in Paris on 20 October. Five days later Real Madrid won 2-1 at Barcelona, Kylian Mbappé scoring the late winner after Raphinha had equalised, and the league leaders had their first La Liga defeat of the season.
They’re still top, on 27 points from ten games, with 40 goals scored and 11 conceded. Alavés visit on Saturday, and that match is the last chance for Flick to settle a defence that’s been stretched by injuries all month.
The four previous meetings between these clubs came in 1978 and 1983. Barcelona won two, Villa won one and one was drawn, and Villa’s only win was the 3-0 extra-time victory at Villa Park that won them the 1982-83 Super Cup. They’ve never won in Barcelona, losing 2-1 in the 1978 UEFA Cup quarter-final and 1-0 in the first leg of that Super Cup.
Bet365 makes Barcelona 1.25 to win. We aren’t arguing with the favourite, but the price on goals at both ends is the more interesting line.
Barcelona: 40 league goals, but five of the last six games with a goal conceded 
Barcelona’s attack has carried them through the autumn. Raphinha has 14 goals in all competitions, 12 of them in La Liga, and Lamine Yamal has eight. Fermín López has four, and the goals at Galatasaray on 13 October came from João Cancelo, Fermín, Anthony Gordon and Karim Adeyemi after the hosts had led through Batrakov.
The defence tells a different story. Barcelona have conceded in five of their last six matches: 3-1 at Sevilla, 4-1 at Galatasaray, 5-2 at Betis, 4-2 at PSG and 2-1 at home to Real Madrid. The only clean sheet in that run was a 3-0 home win over Getafe on 10 October.
Injuries explain part of it. Jules Koundé has an ankle problem and was ruled out of the Alavés game. Andreas Christensen has a muscle injury with a possible return around 8 November, Eric García is also out with a muscle problem and Xavi Espart was hurt in the Clásico. Roony Bardghji is out with a cruciate ligament injury, and Dani Olmo has been reported as a groin doubt.
Flick’s attack is close to full strength, which is why Barcelona are such short favourites. They’ve scored at least three goals in eight of their ten league games, and they’ve gone past four on six occasions in all competitions.
The question is who plays in front of the goalkeeper. With Koundé, Christensen and García all unavailable, Barcelona’s back four on Tuesday is likely to include at least one player out of position or short of match practice, against a Villa side that’s scored three or more in every European game this season.
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Aston Villa: 12 Champions League goals in three games and Jackson leading the line 
Villa have scored 12 times in the Champions League and conceded three. Only Paris Saint-Germain match both their nine points and their goal difference of +9, and the 6-0 win over Fenerbahçe on 14 October was Villa’s biggest European win of the season.
The domestic form is less even, with 11 Premier League points from eight games. The trend is rising, though: a 1-0 win at Newcastle on 17 October and the 2-1 win over City a week later came either side of the Viking game, and Villa went seven matches without defeat before Wednesday.
That run ended at Bournemouth in the Carabao Cup on 28 October. Emery made nine changes, Amine Adli scored after seven minutes and Villa lost 3-0, but the rotation meant most of the first-choice side was rested before Fulham’s visit this weekend and the trip to Spain.
Emery has his own absences. Amadou Onana tore a cruciate ligament at the World Cup and is out long term. Matteo Ruggeri, signed from Atlético on 19 August, has a thigh injury that will keep him out for more than a month, and Aaron Wan-Bissaka’s hamstring problem isn’t expected to clear until mid-November. Cissé and Manzambi are doubts.
Behind Jackson, Ross Barkley has four goals in all competitions. Barcelona have been opened up repeatedly this month: PSG scored four, Betis two and Real Madrid two.
Probable lineup Barcelona: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Aston Villa: Not announced at time of publication
Free Champions League Prediction: Barcelona vs Aston Villa
Our prediction: Both teams to score (1.50)
Barcelona have conceded in five of their last six matches and will be without three senior defenders on Tuesday. Villa have scored in all three Champions League games, 12 goals in total, and Jackson has seven goals this season. Those two numbers point to Villa finding the net at least once.
Barcelona’s half of the bet is safer still. They’ve scored in every competitive game this season, 40 times in ten league matches, and Raphinha and Yamal have 22 goals between them. Villa have conceded only three in Europe, but two of those came at Brugge, the one away game they’ve played in the competition.
A Barcelona win at 1.25 doesn’t clear our minimum price, and the visitors’ form makes that price look too short anyway. Both teams to score at 1.50 covers the likeliest shape of the game: a home side that creates plenty and a visiting attack facing a weakened defence.
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