- 1 Atalanta vs Parma: Serie A’s lowest-scoring side visits a home record of 11 goals in five games
- 2 Atalanta: unbeaten at home since September, but leaking goals on every ground
- 3 Parma: one point from Gilardino’s four games, and no away win in Serie A this season
- 4 Free Serie A Prediction: Atalanta vs Parma
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Atalanta vs Parma: Serie A’s lowest-scoring side visits a home record of 11 goals in five games 
Parma have scored five league goals in nine games this season, fewer than any other side in Serie A. Away from home the figure is two goals in four matches, and all four of those trips ended in defeat.
Their next one is to Bergamo, on Monday 2 November, kick-off 19:45 UK time at the New Balance Arena. It closes matchday ten, and it pits that attack against an Atalanta side that has scored 11 times in five home league games.
Parma are near the bottom with five points, one win, two draws and six defeats, and 15 goals conceded. Alberto Gilardino replaced the sacked Carlos Cuesta, and since his first game, a 3-0 defeat at Inter on 10 October, Parma have taken one point from four league matches.
Atalanta’s season hasn’t gone to plan under Maurizio Sarri either. His side had ten points from eight league games before Thursday night’s trip to Fiorentina, with three wins, a draw and four defeats, which left them in the bottom half of the table. The result in Florence wasn’t known when this preview was written.
The fixture list adds one more complication for the hosts. This is their third game in eight days, and a Conference League match follows on Thursday, so some rotation is likely. Even so, the gap between how these two sides perform at home and away is wide enough that I don’t think it changes the outcome.
Atalanta: unbeaten at home since September, but leaking goals on every ground 
Atalanta’s five home league games have produced three wins, a draw and one defeat. They beat Sassuolo 2-1 and Bologna 1-0 in August, lost 2-1 to Cagliari on 12 September, then beat Venezia 3-1 on 12 October.
The most recent home game shows both sides of this team. Frosinone scored four times in Bergamo last Sunday and the game finished 4-4, with Nikola Krstovic scoring twice, Ederson converting a penalty and Elmas adding the other.
Away from home the story is very different. Atalanta lost at Roma, Juventus and AC Milan in the league and 2-0 at Ajax in the Conference League, four straight away defeats before the trip to Florence, and they conceded 14 goals in their last six league games.
Krstovic arrives in the best form of anyone in either squad, with seven goal involvements in his last three league games, and he’s the club’s top league scorer, so Sarri is likely to keep him in the side even with a European game to come.
Sarri’s injury list runs to four certain absentees: Kolasinac, Hien, Kossounou and Bellanova are all out, which leaves the defence short, while Kessie, Sulemana and Raspadori were doubtful before the Fiorentina game. Scalvini is close to a return, which would give Sarri at least one recognised centre-back back in the squad.
Defensive absences matter less against a side that doesn’t score. Parma’s attack has produced one goal in its last four league games, and it’s hard to see the injuries in Atalanta’s back line costing them much here.
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Parma: one point from Gilardino’s four games, and no away win in Serie A this season 
Gilardino’s arrival hasn’t changed much. His four league games in charge have brought a 3-0 defeat at Inter, a 3-0 home loss to Torino on 19 October, a 2-1 defeat at Lazio on 24 October and a goalless draw with Udinese on Wednesday.
The Udinese draw was Parma’s first clean sheet under the new coach, and it came at home. Away from the Tardini they’ve lost at Juventus 2-0, at Como 2-1, at Inter 3-0 and at Lazio 2-1.
David Romero and Simone Lontani have two league goals each, and between them they account for four of Parma’s five. The fifth came from Almqvist, who had a calf problem before the Udinese game, while Nicolussi Caviglia was also listed as injured and Elphege was ill.
Gilardino has set Parma up in a 3-4-2-1, with Corvi in goal, a back three of Diego Carlos, Troilo and Drobnic, and Lontani and Toure behind Romero. It’s a shape built to keep games tight, and against Udinese it did, but it has given them very little going forward.
Parma can take something from the head-to-head, which isn’t as one-sided as the table might suggest. They won 3-2 in Bergamo in May 2025 and drew 1-1 at home in August that year. The most recent meeting, though, was a 4-0 Atalanta win in Bergamo on 25 January.
Across 19 meetings in all competitions Atalanta have won 11, with three draws and five Parma wins.
Probable lineup Atalanta: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Parma: Not announced at time of publication
Free Serie A Prediction: Atalanta vs Parma
Our prediction: Atalanta to win @ 1.48
Parma have scored five goals in nine league games and two in four away matches, all of which they lost. Atalanta have scored 11 in five at home and lost only once there, to Cagliari in September.
The risks for the hosts are fatigue and rotation, with Fiorentina on Thursday and a Conference League game to follow, plus a defence missing Kolasinac, Hien and Kossounou. Those absences would worry me against a side that creates chances, and Parma haven’t shown they can.
The 4-0 win in January is the most recent meeting in Bergamo, and nothing Parma have done this season suggests they’ve closed that gap. Atalanta to win at 1.48.
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