- 1 Swansea City vs Blackburn Rovers: second place after a 5-0 hiding, and a visitor with 13 points from six
- 2 Swansea City: three goals conceded at home all season, then five in one afternoon
- 3 Blackburn Rovers: Gudjohnsen’s scoring rate and no Sam Morsy
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Swansea City vs Blackburn Rovers
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
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Swansea City vs Blackburn Rovers: second place after a 5-0 hiding, and a visitor with 13 points from six 
Swansea City lost 5-0 at Loftus Road last Saturday, their heaviest defeat since 2002. Three of the goals went in during the first 15 minutes, against a defence that had conceded eight times in its first 11 league games.
That result followed a 1-0 home defeat to West Ham, so Vitor Matos goes into Saturday’s game at the Swansea.com Stadium on two straight league losses. Kick-off is 15:00 UK time on Saturday 31 October.
Swansea are still second, on 23 points from 12 games, two behind leaders Middlesbrough. Seven wins, two draws and three defeats have built that total, and a goal difference of +3 shows how narrow most of those wins were.
Blackburn Rovers are tenth on 18 points, five behind their hosts. Tony Mowbray’s side have taken 13 points from their last six league games, and a win in South Wales would put them within two points of Swansea.
Blackburn have scored first in seven of their 12 league games, Swansea in only four.
The fixture has been kind to Swansea. They’ve beaten Blackburn in the last three league meetings, and since 2012 they’ve won seven of nine league games against them at home, with one draw and one defeat.
Swansea are 1.70 to win, the draw is 3.40 and Blackburn 4.50. Under 2.5 goals is 1.91, and both teams to score is 1.80. I’m more interested in the goals line than the result.
Swansea City: three goals conceded at home all season, then five in one afternoon 
Swansea had conceded only eight league goals before kick-off at Loftus Road. Richard Kone’s early hat-trick broke a defence that had been the base of their season, and QPR added two more without reply.
Before the West Ham game, Matos’s side had won four league matches in a row: 3-1 against Burnley, 2-1 at Lincoln City, 2-1 against Norwich City and 1-0 at Millwall. Every one of those wins came by one or two goals.
At home, Swansea have conceded three goals in six league games, the joint-fourth best defensive record in the division. They’ve scored seven in those six games, so ten goals in total across their home fixtures.
Of their seven league wins, only one has come against a side currently in the top half, Stoke City on the opening weekend. That’s the one number I’d hold against a team sitting second.
Josh Key is expected to miss out again, while Ronald and Moussa Yeo are both touch and go after being left out of the squad last week. Jay Fulton, Eom Ji-sung and Jan Vipotnik are pushing for recalls, and Jenson Seelt could return in central defence.
Swansea have scored 16 league goals and conceded 13, and they’ve kept five clean sheets in 12 games. Vipotnik is expected to lead the line, with Eom and Widell wide and Stamenic sitting in front of the back four.
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Blackburn Rovers: Gudjohnsen’s scoring rate and no Sam Morsy 
Andri Gudjohnsen and Middlesbrough’s Will Lankshear are the only two strikers in the Championship scoring more than once every 90 minutes this season. Blackburn’s attack runs through him, and he’s expected to start again.
Mowbray’s side beat Millwall 3-1, drew 2-2 at Portsmouth, beat Cardiff 2-1 and won 1-0 at Bristol City before losing 3-2 at West Brom. They followed that with a 2-0 home win over Wrexham last weekend.
The away record is more modest: six points from six games. Both away defeats, at Preston North End and West Brom, were by a single goal.
Sam Morsy serves a one-match ban after collecting his fifth booking of the season, and Jake Garrett is expected to replace him alongside Baradji in midfield. Adam Forshaw, Ryoya Morishita and Yuki Ohashi are all injured.
Blackburn have scored 19 league goals and conceded 16, both higher than Swansea’s numbers. Their goal difference is the same, +3, despite the five-point gap in the table.
Mowbray is likely to keep the front four that beat Wrexham, with Fevrier, Cantwell and Afolayan behind Gudjohnsen and Toth in goal.
Over the last 20 matches Blackburn have won seven, drawn seven and lost six. Away from home in that period it’s five wins, six draws and nine defeats.
Probable lineup Swansea City: Vigouroux; Lissah, Seelt, Cabango, Tymon; Stamenic; Eom, Just, Eustaquio, Widell; Vipotnik
Probable lineup Blackburn Rovers: Toth; Alebiosu, Carter, McLoughlin, Pickering; Garrett, Baradji; Fevrier, Cantwell, Afolayan; Gudjohnsen
Free Football Prediction: Swansea City vs Blackburn Rovers
Our prediction: Under 2.5 goals (odds 1.91)
Swansea’s six home league games have produced ten goals between them, and Matos will be more concerned with keeping a clean sheet after the QPR result than with chasing the game.
Blackburn have Gudjohnsen, and he can score here. But without Morsy in midfield and with six points from six away trips, they’ve been a side that keeps away games tight rather than one that opens them up, with both of their away defeats settled by one goal.
The last three league meetings all went Swansea’s way. Even so, at 1.70 the home win is short for a side coming off 5-0 and 1-0 defeats, and the goals line carries less risk.
I’d back under 2.5 goals at 1.91. A 1-0 or a 1-1 fits what both sides have produced in these settings this season.
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