- 1 Dallas Cowboys vs Arizona Cardinals: four straight Arizona wins in the series and two of the league’s leakiest defences
- 2 Dallas Cowboys: sixth in offensive efficiency, last in defensive efficiency
- 3 Arizona Cardinals: Brissett and McBride against a pass defence ranked 30th
- 4 Free NFL Prediction: Dallas Cowboys vs Arizona Cardinals
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Dallas Cowboys vs Arizona Cardinals: four straight Arizona wins in the series and two of the league’s leakiest defences 
Arizona have beaten Dallas in each of the last four meetings and in eight of the last nine. The most recent came at AT&T Stadium last November, a 27-17 win as 3.5-point underdogs, and the Cardinals are 8-2 against the spread across the last ten games in this fixture.
That record sits awkwardly next to this season’s tables. Dallas are 3-4 and arrive off a 38-21 win in Philadelphia on Monday night, while Arizona are 2-5 and have scored just two offensive touchdowns in their last two games.
The Cowboys’ win at the Eagles was built on the ground. Javonte Williams ran for a career-high 155 yards, Dallas piled up 204 rushing yards as a team, and CeeDee Lamb added five catches for 74 yards and two touchdowns.
Kick-off is Sunday 1 November at 1:00pm ET at AT&T Stadium, live on Fox. Dallas are six-point favourites, priced at 1.35 on the moneyline with Arizona at 3.30, and the total is set high at 54.5.
That total is the number I want to explain. Both defences rank in the bottom four in the league in opponent EPA per play and in opponent yards per play, and the reasons behind those rankings say a lot about how Sunday is likely to unfold.
Dallas also haven’t won two games in a row since Weeks 11 to 13 of last season, and they lost 24-16 at home to Tampa Bay on 8 October as 9.5-point favourites, against a quarterback making his second career start.
Dallas Cowboys: sixth in offensive efficiency, last in defensive efficiency 
Dallas rank sixth in the NFL in offensive EPA per play and second in scoring efficiency at 53.1%. They convert better than half of their third downs, and Dak Prescott has been sacked only seven times all season.
Williams leads the league with eight rushing touchdowns, and Lamb sits second in both receiving yards, with 651, and receiving touchdowns, with six. With a clean pocket and a running game that just produced 204 yards in Philadelphia, the Cowboys can attack in more than one way.
Defensively, Dallas are last in the league in EPA allowed per play, and they’ve conceded a touchdown on the opponent’s opening drive in four straight weeks.
The Over is 5-2 in Cowboys games this season, and Dallas are 4-3 against the spread, so they’ve been competitive in most weeks while rarely keeping a game tight at the back.
Linebacker Dee Winters, tackle Drew Shelton and returner KaVontae Turpin are all questionable. Safety P.J. Locke and linebacker Marist Liufau are on the designated-to-return list, which leaves the secondary a little short of experienced cover.
no renewal
Free for 2 weeks.
Arizona Cardinals: Brissett and McBride against a pass defence ranked 30th 
Jacoby Brissett has thrown for 1,600 yards and ten touchdowns this season. His most reliable target remains Trey McBride, who caught ten passes for 111 yards against Denver last week, and that reliance has grown since Marvin Harrison Jr. was traded to Houston earlier this month.
Arizona’s offence ranks 19th in EPA per play and converts 38% of third downs. Getting into the red zone hasn’t been the issue so much as finishing there: the Cardinals are last in the league in red-zone touchdown efficiency at 42.9%.
Away from home they’ve been far more dangerous than the record suggests. Arizona have covered three of their four road games, including outright wins at the Chargers and at the Rams as big underdogs. Against the Rams on 18 October they won 18-16 as 13.5-point underdogs, through Chad Ryland’s 43-yard field goal as time expired.
Their defence gives the Cowboys plenty to aim at. The Cardinals rank 27th in EPA allowed per play and 30th against the pass, which matters against a quarterback with Lamb to throw to and a line that has allowed only seven sacks.
Wide receiver Jalen Brooks is out for the season with a wrist injury, while Andrew Wingard, Max Melton, Walter Nolen III, Jon Gaines II and quarterback Carson Beck are all questionable. Running back Jeremiyah Love is expected back at practice this week.
Probable lineup Dallas Cowboys: QB Dak Prescott, RB Javonte Williams, WR CeeDee Lamb, WR KaVontae Turpin (questionable), LB Dee Winters (questionable).
Probable lineup Arizona Cardinals: QB Jacoby Brissett, TE Trey McBride, RB Jeremiyah Love (expected back at practice). Jalen Brooks (WR) out for the season.
Free NFL Prediction: Dallas Cowboys vs Arizona Cardinals
Our prediction: Over 54.5 total points (1.93)
Two defences in the league’s bottom four, one ranked last in EPA allowed per play and the other 30th against the pass, meet two offences that have each shown they can move the ball. Dallas scored 38 in Philadelphia with a balanced attack, and they’ve conceded an opening-drive touchdown four weeks running, so this game could be level at 7-7 before either side has settled.
The Over is 5-2 in Cowboys games already, and a 34-24 type of result, which fits Dallas’s scoring rate and Arizona’s ability to move the ball on bad defences, lands comfortably above 54.5. I’d expect Brissett to find McBride often against a secondary missing Locke.
The honest concern is Arizona’s red-zone finishing at 42.9% and an Under record of 6-3-1 in the last ten meetings. Field goals instead of touchdowns would hurt this pick, but the quality of the two defences has changed since those older games, and I’m happy with the Over at 1.93.
in your pocket.
Real-time notifications & alerts
_________
About our free predictions
- What we publish on MathOdds are analyses, nothing more. We share a view, a reading of the moment, but never a guarantee. Sport remains what it is: unpredictable. A red card, an injury, a last-minute goal, and the script changes completely.
- Let’s be clear: there is no such thing as a risk-free bet. Even when it looks “obvious”, nothing ever is. And yes, that means you can lose. It’s even inevitable at some point.
- The smartest approach is to stay reasonable. Bet small, set a budget and stick to it. Never use money you need to live on. And above all: don’t chase your losses: that rarely ends well.
- A bet should remain a game, not a job or a source of income. If it starts taking up too much space in your daily life, causes stress or frustration, take a break. And if needed, talk to a support organisation: that’s what they’re there for.
- Ultimately, responsibility lies with you. Reading our content means accepting that risk exists and will never disappear, no matter how good the analysis.
- Essential reminder: gambling is prohibited for minors and must comply with the laws of your country. Need help? Visit begambleaware.org.
No commitment from us
Our predictions carry no contractual value. They have no legal standing. In short: you cannot rely on them to claim anything if a bet doesn’t come through.
Information changes
A prediction is always based on what we know at the time of writing. But between publication and kick-off, a lineup can change, a player picks up an injury, the weather turns, and the analysis can quickly be outdated. We cannot be held responsible for that.
Your responsibility
Before placing a bet, simply check that gambling is legal in your country. If it isn’t, that’s your responsibility, not ours.
Responsible gambling
We can’t say it enough: gamble responsibly. If you’re struggling to stay in control, don’t wait to seek help.
Legal age
MathOdds content is intended for adults only. By browsing here, you confirm you meet the legal age requirement for gambling in your jurisdiction.
About visuals
The images and logos of Dallas Cowboys and Arizona Cardinals on MathOdds are used solely to illustrate our articles. They do not imply any official affiliation with a federation or sports organisation, and we claim no rights over them. Those rights belong to their original owners. If any visual raises a concern, contact us and it will be removed without delay.
Leave a Reply