- 1 Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots: the league’s most generous pass defence meets Drake Maye
- 2 Miami Dolphins: 16.3 points a game, but 24.5 over the last two
- 3 New England Patriots: Over in four straight and 6-2 to the Over against AFC East rivals
- 4 Free NFL Prediction: Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
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- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots: the league’s most generous pass defence meets Drake Maye 
Opposing quarterbacks have a 116.8 passer rating against Miami this season, the worst figure any defence in the NFL has allowed, and they complete 76.6% of their throws. On Sunday the Dolphins face Drake Maye, who posted a 133.8 rating across New England’s two wins over them in 2025.
That combination is the starting point for any reading of this AFC East game. The Patriots are 4-3 and lost 30-24 to Chicago last time out, but Maye still went 24 of 31 for 321 yards and two touchdowns in that defeat, with a 117.8 rating.
Miami beat the New York Jets 28-25 last weekend for their first win of the season, moving to 1-5, with Malik Willis completing 14 of 21 passes for 208 yards and two touchdowns without an interception. Before that win, the Dolphins had faced four teams that currently lead their divisions.
Kick-off at Hard Rock Stadium is Sunday 1 November at 4:25pm ET, on CBS. New England are favourites by 6.5 to 7.5 points depending on the book, priced at 1.30 on the moneyline against 3.66 for Miami, and the total is 43.5.
History in South Florida gives the home side some hope. The Patriots are 3-10 both straight up and against the spread in their last 13 visits to Miami, a pattern that stretches back to the Brady and Belichick years. The most recent meeting went the other way, though: New England won it 38-10.
I’m less interested in the side than in the scoring. The last three meetings have all gone Over the total, and both teams arrive on Over runs of their own.
Miami Dolphins: 16.3 points a game, but 24.5 over the last two 
The Dolphins average 16.3 points per game, 30th in the league, and 293.5 yards per game, 27th. Their passing game produces 162.0 yards a game, again 30th.
Miami have gone Over in their last two games and scored 24.5 points per game across them, and the win over the Jets came from a balanced plan: Ollie Gordon carried 25 times for 103 yards while Greg Dulcich caught five passes for 86.
Their running game carries the offence, at 131.5 rushing yards per game, and Gordon has taken on the load with De’Von Achane on injured reserve. Jaylen Wright is questionable, so Gordon could see another 20-plus carries.
Miami concede 26.2 points per game, 25th in the league, and have forced only five takeaways all season, one fumble and four interceptions. A unit that rarely wins the ball back and allows a 116.8 passer rating gives an accurate quarterback very little to fear.
Tight end Cole Turner is also on injured reserve. Willis has looked efficient in a small sample, and the 28 points against New York show this offence can move the ball when the running game sets things up.
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New England Patriots: Over in four straight and 6-2 to the Over against AFC East rivals 
New England have gone Over the total in each of their last four games. Since the start of last season they’re 6-2 to the Over against AFC East opponents, clearing the number by an average of 6.1 points.
Part of that comes from their own scoring. The Patriots average 22.9 points per game, and Maye’s 321 yards against Chicago came without much help from the ground: New England ran 17 times for 70 yards. Rhamondre Stevenson did more damage as a receiver, with five catches for 93 yards.
New England have also given the ball away 14 times this season, eight interceptions and six lost fumbles, and short fields for the opposition push totals up quickly. Maye threw one interception against the Bears.
Defensively the Patriots are solid rather than special, allowing 20.4 points per game, tenth in the league. They gave up 30 to Chicago, a side that averages 34.0 points in its wins this year.
Romeo Doubs and Mack Hollins are both on injured reserve, along with tight end Julian Hill and running backs Myles Montgomery and Reggie Gilliam. That leaves Maye leaning on Stevenson and whoever wins targets in practice this week, which is one reason the spread looks steep to me.
Probable lineup Miami Dolphins: QB Malik Willis, RB Ollie Gordon, TE Greg Dulcich, RB Jaylen Wright (questionable). De’Von Achane (RB) and Cole Turner (TE) on injured reserve.
Probable lineup New England Patriots: QB Drake Maye, RB Rhamondre Stevenson. Romeo Doubs (WR), Mack Hollins (WR), Julian Hill (TE) on injured reserve.
Free NFL Prediction: Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots
Our prediction: Over 43.5 total points (1.85)
Every trend in this fixture points the same way. The last three head-to-head meetings went Over, New England are Over in four straight, the Patriots clear the total against division rivals by more than six points on average, and Miami have scored 24.5 a game across their last two. A Patriots win in the mid-20s and a Dolphins reply around 20 takes care of 43.5.
Maye faces a secondary allowing a 116.8 passer rating and a defence with five takeaways in six games, while Miami’s 131.5 rushing yards per game should keep their own drives alive against a Patriots side that just conceded 30.
The counter-argument is Miami’s 16.3 points per game across the full season. I’d weigh the recent run more heavily, because the Dolphins’ early schedule featured four division leaders, and I’m happy to take the Over at 1.85 rather than lay a touchdown with a road favourite that’s 3-10 on its last 13 trips here.
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