- 1 San Jose Sharks vs Vancouver Canucks: 20 shots a night for Vancouver, 33.8 against
- 2 San Jose Sharks: Celebrini’s 15 points in 10 games, and four wins away from home
- 3 Vancouver Canucks: 47 goals allowed in ten games and a 64.4% penalty kill
- 4 Free NHL Prediction: San Jose Sharks vs Vancouver Canucks
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
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- 10 Legal age
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San Jose Sharks vs Vancouver Canucks: 20 shots a night for Vancouver, 33.8 against 
Vancouver has averaged 20.0 shots on goal over its last ten games and allowed 33.8. No other figure in this preview comes close to explaining a 3-10-1 record as well as that one.
The Canucks did end a five-game losing streak on Tuesday, winning 6-5 in overtime in Anaheim. It was their first win since early October, and they needed six goals because Leevi Merilainen allowed five on 23 shots.
The Sharks coms in at 6-6-1, fourth in the Pacific, after a 2-0 home loss to Buffalo on Tuesday in which the Sharks were outshot 40-23. The game starts at 10:00pm ET on Thursday 29 October.
The prices reflect the gap in the standings: the Sharks are at 1.55 and the Canucks at 2.60, with the total at 6.5. We think the home side is the right favourite, and the shot numbers explain why.
Both teams played on Tuesday and had Wednesday off, so rest isn’t a factor. Vancouver plays only this game in California before hosting Toronto on Saturday.
The recent head-to-head also leans San Jose. The Sharks won three of the four meetings before Vancouver’s 4-3 shootout win on 11 April, including 6-3 and 5-2 results in Vancouver last season, though the Canucks lead the last ten meetings 6-4.
San Jose Sharks: Celebrini’s 15 points in 10 games, and four wins away from home 
Macklin Celebrini has five goals and 15 points in his ten appearances, the best rate on the roster by a distance. Tyler Toffoli has four goals, three of them on the power play, and nine points, and Ivar Stenberg also has nine.
The odd thing about San Jose’s season is where the points have come from. The Sharks are 4-3-1 on the road, with wins in St. Louis, Nashville, Montreal and Ottawa, and 2-3-0 at home, where they’ve lost to Edmonton, Boston and Buffalo.
That 6-2 win in Ottawa on 22 October was their most complete game. San Jose scored six on 28 shots. Their three other road wins, in St. Louis, Nashville and Montreal, all needed overtime or a shootout. Will Smith has four goals on the season.
Tuesday was a step back. Buffalo had 40 shots and San Jose didn’t score. The Sharks also lost Alexander Wennberg and Igor Chernyshov, both placed on injured reserve with upper-body injuries on 27 October.
In goal, Alex Nedeljkovic has three wins and a .903 save percentage, and Yaroslav Askarov has three wins with an .883. Over its last ten games San Jose has scored 2.8 goals per game and allowed 3.3. That’s ordinary, but it’s 1.4 goals per game better defensively than Vancouver over the same span.
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Vancouver Canucks: 47 goals allowed in ten games and a 64.4% penalty kill 
The Canucks have allowed 47 goals in their last ten games, an average of 4.7. Their season mark is 4.62 goals against per game, and the penalty kill has stopped 64.4% of opposing power plays.
The losses have come in every shape. Carolina beat them 7-2 and 6-3, the Rangers won 6-2, Detroit 5-2 in Vancouver. Even the close ones, 3-2 at the Islanders and 3-2 in overtime in Florida, came with Vancouver outshot 38-26 and 39-18.
Elias Pettersson leads the team with four goals and nine assists, and all four of his goals have come on the power play. Jonathan Lekkerimaki has four goals and five assists, Brock Boeser nine points and Paul Cotter four goals.
The road trip has been punishing. Before Tuesday, Vancouver had lost at Tampa Bay, Florida, the Islanders, the Rangers, New Jersey and Carolina, and it was outshot in every one of those games.
Goaltending has offered little cover. Kevin Lankinen is 1-7-0 with a 6.17 goals-against average and an .812 save percentage. Merilainen had been the better option at .912 before Tuesday, when he stopped 18 of 23.
Thatcher Demko is out with a hip problem and is hoping to return before Christmas. Akil Thomas and Mackenzie MacEachern are also on injured reserve. Vancouver is 2-5-1 on the road, and Tuesday’s win in Anaheim was its first away from home since before 8 October.
Probable lineup San Jose Sharks: Nedeljkovic or Askarov (G); Celebrini, Toffoli, Smith, Stenberg, Misa, Graf; Orlov, Nurse, Dickinson, Trouba (from the last game, not confirmed)
Probable lineup Vancouver Canucks: Merilainen or Lankinen (G); Pettersson, Boeser, Lekkerimaki, DeBrusk, Chytil, Rossi; Hronek, Buium, Willander (from the last game, not confirmed)
Free NHL Prediction: San Jose Sharks vs Vancouver Canucks
Our prediction: San Jose Sharks to win (moneyline) at 1.55
We’re taking the Sharks because Vancouver’s shot share is the worst number on the board. Getting outshot 33.8 to 20.0 over ten games, with an .812 save percentage from one goalie and five goals allowed by the other on Tuesday, isn’t a profile that wins on the road often.
San Jose’s 2-3-0 home record is the honest objection. But Toffoli has three power-play goals, Celebrini is producing at 1.5 points a game, and Vancouver’s penalty kill stops 64.4% of chances.
Vancouver’s win in Anaheim came with six goals on 33 shots, a total it has reached once in its last ten games. At 1.55 we’d back San Jose to win this one in regulation or after.
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