Nashville Predators vs Washington Capitals – Free NHL Prediction

Nashville Predators vs Washington Capitals: a road team on no rest against a power play converting a third of its chances

Washington beat Philadelphia 5-2 at home on Wednesday night, and less than 24 hours later the Capitals drop the puck in Nashville. Thursday 29 October, 8:00pm ET, is the second half of a back-to-back for Washington, and the travel goes in one direction only.

The Capitals are 7-4-0 and fourth in the Metropolitan Division. Almost all of that has been built in their own building: they’re 6-2-0 at home and 1-2-0 on the road, with the two losses coming at Carolina (4-2) and Tampa Bay (3-1).

Nashville sits at 4-3-5, fifth in the Central. That record hides an odd detail. Five of the Predators’ 12 games have gone past regulation and ended in a loss, three of them in a shootout, the latest a 4-3 shootout defeat to the Islanders on Tuesday.

We see a home team that has been closer than its record suggests, facing a road team that’s tired and short of depth on defense. Washington are without Vincent Desharnais (abdomen, injured reserve since 23 October) and Rasmus Sandin (knee, long-term injured reserve), and centre Patrick Thomas has been on injured reserve since 19 September.

The market barely separates them. The Capitals are priced at 1.88 and the Predators at 1.94, with the total set at 6.5. Head-to-head history leans low: nine of the last ten meetings went under, and Washington won six of those ten.

Nashville Predators: a 33.3% power play and three shootout losses in October

Nashville’s power play is the reason we’re willing to back them. Through 11 games it had produced 12 goals at a 33.3% conversion rate, and it went 4 for 7 in the 6-2 win over Colorado on 25 October.

Steven Stamkos is the finisher on that unit. He had seven goals and seven assists through 11 games, three of the goals on the power play, and he’d scored on 7 of his 23 shots. Ryan O’Reilly scored twice against Colorado and sits at six goals and six assists.

Roman Josi has one goal but 11 assists from the blue line, and Filip Forsberg has 11 points. The top of the roster is producing. Five-on-five scoring has been patchier, and it disappeared in a 6-0 loss at Boston on 22 October.

The results since then have been tighter than the standings show. Nashville lost 3-2 in overtime at Pittsburgh on 24 October, beat Colorado by four the next night and then needed a shootout to lose to the Islanders on Tuesday. They had one day off before this game; Washington has none.

Juuse Saros is 3-2-3 with a 2.82 goals-against average and a .908 save percentage. Justus Annunen has struggled in his two games (4.00 GAA, .846), so Nashville’s chances rest on Saros getting the start. Defenseman Trudeau has been on injured reserve since 9 October.

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Washington Capitals: 6-2-0 at home, 1-2-0 away, and a goalie question on the back-to-back

Washington has gone 6-4 over its last ten, and seven of those ten games went over the total. The Capitals score: 3.4 goals a game over that stretch, with five or more in three of their last six.

Alex Tuch leads the way with seven goals in his first ten games, four of them game-winners, on 27 shots. Dylan Strome has nine points, six of them assists, and Jordan Kyrou has eight. Ryan Leonard has four goals and four assists.

The defense is less convincing. Washington has allowed 3.2 goals per game across the same ten games, and the loss of Desharnais and Sandin has stretched the blue line. Jakob Chychrun’s seven points from defense have covered some of that at the other end.

Logan Thompson started on Wednesday and stopped 23 of 25 shots against the Flyers. With a back-to-back on the schedule, we’d expect Charlie Lindgren in Nashville, though that hadn’t been confirmed at the time of writing. Lindgren is 2-1-0 with a 2.98 GAA and an .886 save percentage, and he allowed three goals on 21 shots against Buffalo and four on 29 against Montreal in his last two starts.

The road record is the other concern. Washington’s only away win came early, and they scored three goals combined in the losses at Carolina and Tampa Bay. In Raleigh they were outshot 34-22.

Probable lineup Nashville Predators: Saros (G); Forsberg, O’Reilly, Stamkos, Marchessault, Kerfoot, Drury; Josi, Skjei, Lyubushkin, Perbix (from the last game, not confirmed)
Probable lineup Washington Capitals: Lindgren or Thompson (G); Ovechkin, Strome, Tuch, Wilson, Kyrou, Leonard, Dubois; Chychrun, Roy, Fehervary (from the last game, not confirmed)

Free NHL Prediction: Nashville Predators vs Washington Capitals

Our prediction: Nashville Predators to win (moneyline) at 1.94

We’re taking Nashville at a near coin-flip price because the schedule tilts this game. Washington played at home last night, travels today and has won once on the road all season, while the Predators come in on a day’s rest.

The special-teams gap points the same way. Nashville converts a third of its power plays, and a Capitals blue line missing Desharnais and Sandin, likely with Lindgren in net, gives them the type of game where one or two power-play goals decide it.

Washington’s offense is the real risk to this pick, and Tuch’s four game-winners show they can steal a close one. But five Nashville losses after regulation tell us the margins have been thin, and at 1.94 we’d rather back the rested home team.

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