- 1 Troyes vs Le Mans: 17th against 15th, with two points between them
- 2 Troyes: five goals in eight games and four blanks in their last six
- 3 Le Mans: one win, four draws and a goal that survived a technology row
- 4 Free Ligue 1 Prediction: Troyes vs Le Mans
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
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Troyes vs Le Mans: 17th against 15th, with two points between them 
Two points separate Troyes in 17th and Le Mans in 15th before Saturday’s game at the Stade de l’Aube, kick-off 19:45 UK time on 31 October. Troyes have five points from eight matches and sit in the last automatic relegation place, while Le Mans have seven.
These clubs know each other well from Ligue 2. The last meeting, in January 2026, ended in a 2-0 win for Le Mans in Troyes, and the game before that, in October 2025, finished 2-2 at Le Mans. Across seven meetings in all competitions, Le Mans have won three, Troyes two, and two have been drawn.
Troyes’ season has followed a steep curve. They took four points from their first two matches, including a 2-1 win at Lorient, then lost five in a row and conceded 15 goals in that run, six of them at home to Strasbourg.
Last weekend’s 0-0 at Toulouse ended the losing streak, and it was only their second clean sheet of the season. Stéphane Dumont’s side have scored five goals in eight league games.
Le Mans have won once in eight but drawn four times, and their goal difference of minus five is six better than Troyes’. They’ve also scored 11 league goals, more than twice as many as their hosts, which is the gap I’d focus on before anything else.
Troyes: five goals in eight games and four blanks in their last six 
Scoring is the issue for Troyes. Five goals in eight games works out at 0.6 per match, and they’ve failed to score in five of those eight, including last weekend’s trip to Toulouse. Their goal difference of minus 11 comes almost entirely from the losing run, in which they conceded at least two goals every time.
The defence did steady itself at Toulouse, in a game that had been pushed back to Sunday. That point was their first since the second weekend of the season.
Home form hasn’t been a refuge. Troyes have lost to Strasbourg, Marseille and Lens at the Stade de l’Aube, conceding 11 goals in those three games, and their only home point came in a 0-0 draw with Paris FC.
The squad is short at the back. Anis Ouzenadji and Yacouba Kone are out with knee injuries, and defenders Yvann Titi and Ismael Boura are doubtful, so Dumont may again have to patch his back four together.
The likely XI is a 4-3-3, with Konate in goal and Maronnier, Monfray, Diaz and Gozzi across the back. Mille, Dermane and Diop should form the midfield, with Nkada, Ripart and Ifnaoui in attack.
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Le Mans: one win, four draws and a goal that survived a technology row 
Le Mans left Auxerre with a 1-1 draw last weekend after one of the stranger goals of the season. Lucas Buades headed towards goal, the ball went in off Danny Namaso, and the referee’s watch signalled that it had crossed the line, even though replays suggested otherwise.
The federation’s refereeing directorate confirmed on Wednesday that Willy Delajod was right to award it. Cameron Archer equalised for Auxerre, and the point lifted Le Mans out of the relegation zone.
Patrick Videira’s side have been competitive in most of their games. They drew 2-2 with Brest and Lens, lost 3-2 at Rennes and beat Lorient 2-1, and their heaviest defeats came against PSG, 3-1 away, and Toulouse, 3-0 at home. They’ve scored in seven of their eight league games, and that Toulouse defeat is the only one where they didn’t.
Their away results have been steadier than their home ones. Le Mans lost at Rennes and PSG but drew at Nice and Auxerre, and a draw on Saturday would be their third in five away league games.
Absences are building up. Djibril Sidibe and Bourabaa are out, while Yasser Larouci has a groin problem and Voyer and Colas are also doubts.
Videira’s probable side has Kocik in goal behind a back three of Bamba, Yohou and Raul Torrente, with Bretelle and Lauray in midfield. Buades and Calodat support a front three of Rabillard, Mafouta and Diallo. Le Mans have conceded 16 league goals, exactly as many as Troyes, so the gap between the sides is almost all at the other end of the pitch.
Probable lineup Troyes: Konate; Maronnier, Monfray, Diaz, Gozzi; Mille, Dermane, Diop; Nkada, Ripart, Ifnaoui
Probable lineup Le Mans: Kocik; Bamba, Yohou, Raul Torrente; Bretelle, Lauray; Buades, Calodat; Rabillard, Mafouta, Diallo
Free Ligue 1 Prediction: Troyes vs Le Mans
Our prediction: Le Mans or draw (double chance)
The market makes Troyes favourites at 2.25, with Le Mans at 2.90 and the draw at 3.30. I’d read it the other way round: Le Mans have scored more than twice as many goals, lost fewer games and won the last meeting 2-0 in Troyes.
Troyes have taken one point from their last six league games and failed to score in four of them. Le Mans have drawn half of their eight matches, so even a poor day for the visitors tends to end level rather than in defeat.
Home advantage and the clean sheet at Toulouse are the reasons to hesitate. But Troyes haven’t won at the Stade de l’Aube this season, with three defeats and a draw from four home games, and that’s enough for me to back Le Mans not to lose.
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