- 1 Union Bordeaux-Begles vs Aviron Bayonnais: second in the table, three from three at home
- 2 Union Bordeaux-Begles: 240 points scored and back-to-back away wins
- 3 Aviron Bayonnais: 245 points conceded, the most in the Top 14
- 4 Free Rugby Prediction: Union Bordeaux-Begles vs Aviron Bayonnais
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Union Bordeaux-Begles vs Aviron Bayonnais: second in the table, three from three at home 
Union Bordeaux-Begles put 51 points on Lyon at Chaban-Delmas this season, and Lyon are fifth in the Top 14. That’s the standard UBB have set at home: three league games, three wins, against Racing 92, Stade Français and Lyon.
Aviron Bayonnais are the next visitors, on Saturday 31 October at 15:35 UK time in round 8. UBB are second on 23 points, five behind leaders Toulouse. Bayonne are sixth on 18, with four wins and three defeats, level on points with La Rochelle, Lyon and Montpellier.
UBB went to Marcel-Deflandre last Sunday and won 25-19 at La Rochelle. They led 19-7 at half-time through a converted Carlü Sadie try and Hugo Reus’s penalties, then held on as La Rochelle scored twice after the break. Louis Bielle-Biarrey kicked the ball into touch to end it.
Bayonne’s weekend went the other way: they led Lyon 21-12 at half-time at Jean-Dauger and lost 31-27, with Iosefo Masi’s try in the 76th minute settling it. Joris Segonds, who had just put them back in front with a penalty, then missed touch with a kick moments later, and he called it Bayonne’s worst match of the season.
With the bookmakers pricing Bayonne at 5.00, I’d go further than a home win here: UBB’s scoring at Chaban has been heavy enough to back a big margin against a side that has shipped 245 points in seven games.
Union Bordeaux-Begles: 240 points scored and back-to-back away wins 
UBB have scored 240 league points, second only to Pau’s 259, and conceded 170. Five wins from seven, plus three bonus points, have them on 23, a point clear of Pau in third.
The La Rochelle win was their second away from home in a row. They’d won 23-22 at Clermont before the Champions Cup break. At La Rochelle it was their defence, more than their attack, that took the points.
At La Rochelle, Reus did most of the scoring from the tee and missed one penalty in the second half. A first-quarter try of his was chalked off for a forward pass. Temo Matiu was sin-binned for a high tackle on Levani Botia, and La Rochelle scored through Andy Timo during that spell to make it a six-point game.
Racing, Stade Français and Lyon all left Chaban beaten, and the 51-28 win over Lyon came against a side that’s now fifth and has the fourth-best attack in the division. Lyon scored 28 that night and still lost by 23.
Maxime Lucu, Salesi Rayasi, Romain Gardrat and Bielle-Biarrey were all involved at La Rochelle, so the core of the side is fit. With Toulouse playing at Pau on Sunday, a bonus-point win would put pressure on the leaders before they kick off.
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Aviron Bayonnais: 245 points conceded, the most in the Top 14 
No club has conceded more than Bayonne this season. They’ve let in 245 points in seven games, and they’ve scored 217, which leaves them at minus 28 despite four wins.
The away record is one win and two defeats. They won 20-17 at Racing 92 and lost at Pau and Toulouse, currently third and first.
Against Lyon they scored three tries in the first 32 minutes. Guillaume Cramont went over twice and Léo Coly once, and Segonds converted all three. Esteban Capilla was carded in the 26th minute, and Bayonne still went in nine points up.
After the break they scored only two Segonds penalties while Lyon ran in three tries. Manu Tuilagi and Matthieu Uhila started that game, and Uhila was replaced on 62 minutes, with Lyon already ahead on the scoreboard.
Before the Lyon game Bayonne had won two of their previous three league matches, so this is a side that has been picking up results despite the defensive numbers. Segonds kicked 12 points against Lyon from three conversions and two penalties, and he’ll keep them in range of anyone if the penalty count goes their way. UBB’s discipline was loose enough at La Rochelle to concede a yellow card and a try during the sin-bin period.
Bayonne have the players to score at Chaban. The 245 conceded is the number that worries me, especially against a home side that put 51 on Lyon there.
Probable lineup Union Bordeaux-Begles: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Aviron Bayonnais: Not announced at time of publication
Free Rugby Prediction: Union Bordeaux-Begles vs Aviron Bayonnais
Our prediction: Union Bordeaux-Begles to win with the attacking bonus point
UBB have won all three home games, one of them by 23 points over a Lyon side that’s fifth. Bayonne have conceded 35 points a game on average, and they’ve lost two of their three away trips. Their one away win came by three points at a Racing side now thirteenth.
The attacking bonus needs UBB to score three more tries than Bayonne. That’s a real ask against a side with Cramont and Coly among its try-scorers and a habit of scoring early. UBB’s attack at home, and the way Bayonne fell away after half-time in their last game, make it the pick with value.
Bayonne’s second-half collapse against Lyon was a 19-6 swing in 40 minutes at their own ground. At Chaban, against the second-best side in France, I expect a similar fade, and UBB have the finishers to turn it into four or five tries.
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