- 1 Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings: 74 points allowed in six games, and a Ford Field offense scoring 30.7
- 2 Detroit Lions: Goff with 14 touchdowns and no interceptions, and the league’s worst pass defense
- 3 Minnesota Vikings: 6-0 with the best defense in football and an offense ranked 29th in yards
- 4 Free NFL Prediction: Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
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Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings: 74 points allowed in six games, and a Ford Field offense scoring 30.7 
The last time these teams met, on Christmas Day, Minnesota forced six Detroit turnovers and won 23-10. A month and a half earlier, on 2 November 2025, the Vikings had also won at Ford Field, 27-24. They’ve taken the last two meetings and lead the all-time series 82-45 with two ties.
Minnesota return to Detroit as the only unbeaten team left in the NFL. The Vikings are 6-0 after a 16-10 win over Indianapolis in Week 7, and they’ve allowed 74 points all season. The next stingiest defense, Kansas City, has allowed 103.
Detroit are 4-2, two games back in the NFC North, after Jake Bates kicked the winning field goal in a 20-17 win over Green Bay. Kickoff is 1pm ET on Sunday 1 November, indoors at Ford Field, on FOX.
The Lions are three-point favorites, and the moneyline has them at about 1.60. Minnesota are 2-0 as underdogs this season and 3-0 against the spread on the road.
The strongest unit on each side meets the other: the Lions score 30.7 points per game, second in the league, and the Vikings hold opponents to 12.3.
Rather than a side, I’m backing the total: Minnesota have gone under in five straight games and haven’t played a single game with more than 39 combined points, yet the line is set at 46.5.
Detroit Lions: Goff with 14 touchdowns and no interceptions, and the league’s worst pass defense 
Jared Goff has thrown for 1,788 yards, 14 touchdowns and zero interceptions through six games. Detroit average 282.3 passing yards per game, the most in the NFL, and 397.3 total yards, second.
Jahmyr Gibbs has 620 rushing yards on 134 carries, 4.6 a carry, plus 270 receiving yards and nine total touchdowns. Amon-Ra St. Brown has 46 catches for 525 yards and five scores. Detroit convert 70.37% of red-zone trips into touchdowns, fourth in the league.
Defense is the weak side: the Lions allow 291.8 passing yards per game, the worst figure in the NFL. Brian Branch returned in Week 7 and intercepted a pass, which helps, but Kerby Joseph is still on the PUP list, Devin White and Ben Bartch are on injured reserve, and cornerback Ennis Rakestraw Jr. is questionable after leaving the Green Bay game with an ankle injury.
Detroit’s games have gone over five times in six, the trend working against this pick, built on a team that scores and concedes freely.
The Packers game points the other way: Detroit scored 20 points and needed a late kick to win. Pass-rush pressure matters here as well: the Lions have 21 sacks, tied for the league lead.
The betting record is poor for a favorite. Detroit are 1-4-1 against the spread overall, 0-2-1 at home and 1-3-1 when favored.
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Minnesota Vikings: 6-0 with the best defense in football and an offense ranked 29th in yards 
Minnesota rank first in points allowed, first in EPA per play allowed, first in success rate and second in yards per play allowed. Opponents throw for 155.0 yards per game against them, second fewest in the league.
The Vikings also take the ball away, with seven interceptions, 21 sacks (tied for first with Detroit) and a +7 turnover margin, the best in the NFL. Against a Goff who hasn’t thrown an interception all season, that edge will be tested.
The offense is the reason their games stay low. Minnesota average 20.8 points per game (23rd), 281.7 yards per game (29th) and 4.7 yards per play (27th). Kyler Murray has 812 passing yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions, completing 66.4% of his attempts.
Justin Jefferson has 23 catches for 302 yards and three touchdowns. His record against Detroit is the one number that could change the shape of the game: 82 receptions for 1,285 yards in 12 career meetings.
Aaron Jones is day-to-day after aggravating a left knee MCL issue against the Colts, where he left after eight carries. Imaging reportedly showed no significant new damage. He has 436 rushing yards on 105 carries. If he sits, Jordan Mason, who ran 15 times for 68 yards in Week 7 after returning from a thumb injury, takes the lead role.
T.J. Hockenson caught the only Minnesota touchdown against Indianapolis. A 16-10 win is the Vikings’ formula this season: a low-scoring game that the defense closes out.
Probable lineup Detroit Lions: QB Jared Goff, RB Jahmyr Gibbs, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, S Brian Branch. CB Ennis Rakestraw Jr. questionable; S Kerby Joseph (PUP), LB Devin White and OL Ben Bartch (IR) out. Full depth chart not announced at time of publication.
Probable lineup Minnesota Vikings: QB Kyler Murray, RB Aaron Jones (questionable) or Jordan Mason, WR Justin Jefferson, TE T.J. Hockenson. Full depth chart not announced at time of publication.
Free NFL Prediction: Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings
Our prediction: Under 46.5 points at 1.91
Minnesota have gone under in five straight games, and none of their six games has gone above 39 combined points. They’ve allowed 74 points in six games, and their offense ranks 29th in yards, so they won’t push the pace from their side.
The risk is Detroit’s offense: 30.7 points per game, an over record of 5-1 and a pass defense so weak that even Murray could find room. A 27-21 type game would beat this ticket.
The Vikings should still dictate the tempo: their defense leads the league in EPA per play allowed, their turnover margin is +7, and in the last meeting they forced six turnovers. Even the Lions’ 20-17 win over Green Bay last week stayed well under this number. Under 46.5 at 1.91 is the play.
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