- 1 Houston Rockets vs Oklahoma City Thunder: a short-handed unbeaten team against a tired one
- 2 Houston Rockets: 50.2% shooting, 114 or more every night, and no rest this week
- 3 Oklahoma City Thunder: Ajay Mitchell’s 30 and a defense holding teams near 100
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: Houston Rockets vs Oklahoma City Thunder
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Houston Rockets vs Oklahoma City Thunder: a short-handed unbeaten team against a tired one 
Jalen Williams has a fractured fibula and a dislocated left ankle. Cason Wallace has a torn labrum in his left shoulder. Both need surgery, and both could miss the rest of the season. Oklahoma City learned all of that within a few days and still beat Phoenix 125-114 on Monday to move to 4-0.
The Thunder travel to Houston on Saturday 31 October, tip-off at 8:30pm ET, to play another team still without a loss. The Rockets are 4-0 for the first time since 2017-18, the season they won a franchise-record 65 games and reached the Western Conference finals.
The calendar matters as much as the injury report here. Houston plays in Milwaukee on Wednesday, in Dallas on Friday and at home to Oklahoma City on Saturday: three games in four nights, with this one on the second night of a back-to-back. The Thunder play in Dallas on Wednesday and then get two days off.
Oklahoma City’s absences go beyond Williams and Wallace. Chet Holmgren sat out Monday with patellar tendinitis in his right knee, Alex Caruso sprained his right ankle late in the second quarter of the same game, and Nikola Topic and Thomas Sorber are also out.
We still think the Thunder are the better side for this particular night. Their defense has held three of four opponents to 104 points or fewer, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 27.2 points. A Rockets team on its third game in four nights is the kind of opponent that suits a defense built to grind.
Houston Rockets: 50.2% shooting, 114 or more every night, and no rest this week 
Houston opened with an 18-point win over Dallas, then won 114-110 in San Antonio, 121-114 in Atlanta and 120-110 against Atlanta at home on Monday. The Rockets have scored at least 114 in every game and reached 120 in three of the four, shooting 50.2% from the field.
Kevin Durant is averaging 24 points on 56.1% shooting. Alperen Sengun is putting up 23 points, nine rebounds and 6.3 assists, and Amen Thompson averages 10.3 rebounds. Fred VanVleet is running the offense at eight assists a game, though he sat out the first Atlanta game with right knee load management.
That Saturday win in Atlanta showed the depth Houston has. Seven players scored in double figures, Reed Sheppard had 19 points starting in VanVleet’s place, Tari Eason added 19, and Thompson finished with 17 points and 11 rebounds. The team had arrived in Atlanta after 5am local time that morning.
Steven Adams is out and Marcus Smart has been listed as questionable. With Holmgren sidelined, the Thunder’s main size on Saturday may be Isaiah Hartenstein, who had 15 points and 13 rebounds against Phoenix, and that’s a matchup Sengun and Thompson can attack on the glass.
Houston’s defense is allowing around 111 points a game. We’ll weigh the schedule more heavily than any of those numbers: the Rockets will play Friday night in Dallas, fly home and tip off against Oklahoma City less than 24 hours later.
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Oklahoma City Thunder: Ajay Mitchell’s 30 and a defense holding teams near 100 
Ajay Mitchell scored a career-high 30 points against Phoenix, 18 of them before halftime. He said afterwards that with Williams and Wallace out he knew he had to be more aggressive, and he’s averaging 16 points in just under 25 minutes a night. He was listed as a game-time decision with an ankle problem for Wednesday in Dallas.
Gilgeous-Alexander added 26 against the Suns and is averaging 27.2 points with 3.8 assists. Jared McCain scored 18 starting in Wallace’s spot, and Hartenstein had his 15 and 13. Oklahoma City led 67-53 at halftime and pushed the lead to 17 in the third quarter.
The defense is the reason this team keeps winning while its roster thins out. The Thunder held Denver to 84 points and the Clippers to 101, and three of their four opponents have been held to 104 or fewer. Devin Booker went 1 of 7 for three points on Monday.
The offense is less convincing. Oklahoma City averages 111.3 points on 45% shooting, and Williams had been contributing 13.7 points per game before the injury. The Thunder beat the Clippers 108-101 on Sunday and Phoenix on Monday, back-to-back, so they’ve already shown they can win on short rest with this group.
Wednesday’s game in Dallas is listed at Oklahoma City -5.5 with a total of 230.5. After that, the Thunder get Thursday and Friday off before Houston. We expect Mitchell, McCain and Hartenstein to carry heavier minutes again, with Gilgeous-Alexander taking the bulk of the late-game possessions.
Probable lineup Houston Rockets: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Oklahoma City Thunder: Not announced at time of publication
Free NBA Prediction: Houston Rockets vs Oklahoma City Thunder
Our prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder to win (moneyline)
We’re taking Oklahoma City. The Thunder arrive on two days’ rest, while Houston plays its third game in four nights and its second in under 24 hours. A defense that has held three of four opponents to 104 or fewer is a hard thing to face on tired legs.
We know what’s missing from the Thunder roster. Williams, Wallace, Topic and Sorber are out, Holmgren and Caruso are both nursing injuries, and that’s a lot of rotation minutes gone. They still beat the Clippers and Phoenix on consecutive nights with most of that list already sidelined.
Houston’s offense is shooting 50.2% and has topped 114 in every game, so this isn’t a fade of a weak team. It’s a bet on rest, on Gilgeous-Alexander’s 27.2 points a night, and on a defense that hasn’t allowed more than 114 points in any game this season.
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