- 1 Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs: first place in the AFC West, and three straight meetings under the total
- 2 Denver Broncos: 270 yards a game, and three plays of 40-plus in Arizona
- 3 Kansas City Chiefs: the league’s leading rusher, and a kicker who has missed four times in two weeks
- 4 Free NFL Prediction: Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs: first place in the AFC West, and three straight meetings under the total 
Kansas City gained 213 total yards in Seattle last Sunday, never reached the red zone and lost 20-3. It was the lowest-scoring game of Patrick Mahomes’ career.
The Chiefs are 5-1 and travel to Empower Field at Mile High on Sunday, November 1, with kickoff at 4:25pm ET on CBS. Denver is 5-2 after three straight wins, and a victory would put the Broncos alone in first place in the AFC West.
Week 1 went badly for Denver. Kansas City won 31-10 at Arrowhead, Kenneth Walker III ran for 173 yards and the Broncos finished with 176 yards of total offense. Sean Payton called that defeat a “slap in the face”.
The market can barely separate the teams this time. DraftKings has the Chiefs at -1.5, with Kansas City’s moneyline at 1.80, Denver’s at 2.05 and the total at 41.5.
That total is where we’re looking. Denver’s games have gone Under five times in seven this season, Kansas City’s four times in six, and the Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between these teams.
Denver Broncos: 270 yards a game, and three plays of 40-plus in Arizona 
Denver averages 270.0 total yards per game, and in its first six games it produced one play of 40 yards or more. In Arizona last Sunday it had three, gained 377 yards and won 30-16.
Bo Nix did most of the damage with his legs. He ran seven times for 73 yards, including a 62-yard touchdown, and went 15-of-29 for 222 yards with a 52-yard touchdown pass. Wil Lutz made all three of his field-goal attempts.
A week earlier the offense managed 168 total yards against Seattle and still won 17-14 in overtime, after Ja’Quan McMillian intercepted Sam Darnold and Lutz hit from 53 yards. Nix said after that game the team was struggling to find explosive plays.
The Broncos score 20.6 points per game and allow 20.1. They’re 3-0 against the spread at home this season, and the defense held Herbert and the Chargers to 17 with five sacks in Week 5.
The injury report is busy. Surtain, Hufanga, Waddle and Zach Allen were listed as questionable early in the week, with one report already ruling Hufanga out with an ankle injury. Waddle (chest) and Allen (hamstring) were both hurt in Arizona.
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Kansas City Chiefs: the league’s leading rusher, and a kicker who has missed four times in two weeks 
Walker leads the NFL in rushing. He ran for 177 yards and two touchdowns in Las Vegas and 128 yards and two more against the Chargers, then carried 14 times for 36 yards in Seattle.
Mahomes, back from the ACL and LCL tears he suffered in December 2025, went 19-of-33 for 165 yards and an interception against the Seahawks. He’d thrown for 272 yards a week earlier in a 22-6 win over the Chargers.
Butker made one of three field goals in Seattle, a week after missing an extra point and a field goal against Los Angeles. Andy Reid said his kicker is “off a bit” and took responsibility for struggles in all three phases.
The defense is the steadier unit. Kansas City allows 17.2 points per game and ranks fifth in both EPA per play and success rate, while Denver’s offense is 23rd in EPA per play and 29th in success rate.
Rice, who left the Las Vegas game with a hamstring injury, is listed as questionable by one report and out by another. Right tackle Jaylon Moore is questionable after a concussion, and Brashard Smith, Josh Simmons and Thornton are on injured reserve.
Probable lineup Denver Broncos: Not announced at time of publication (Bo Nix at quarterback)
Probable lineup Kansas City Chiefs: Not announced at time of publication (Patrick Mahomes at quarterback)
Free NFL Prediction: Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs
Our prediction: Under 41.5 points (1.87)
We’re taking the Under. The last three meetings finished 22-19, 20-13 and 31-10, totals of 41, 33 and 41, all below this line. Kansas City scored three points last week, and Denver’s offense ranks near the bottom of the league in success rate.
Denver’s 30-16 win in Arizona went over 41.5, and Walker’s 76-yard run in Las Vegas showed how quickly one carry can change a total. Those are the risks.
Against that, the Chiefs allow 17.2 points a game and Denver 20.1, and Butker’s misses have taken points off the board two weeks running. We expect a one-score game in the 30s, and the Under at 1.87 is our pick.
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