- 1 Chelsea vs Manchester United: eight games without a win for Carrick’s side
- 2 Chelsea: 17 league goals, but eight conceded from set pieces and a 21-year-old in goal
- 3 Manchester United: seven goals conceded in two games and a long injury list
- 4 Free Premier League Prediction: Chelsea vs Manchester United
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Chelsea vs Manchester United: eight games without a win for Carrick’s side 
Manchester United have gone eight matches in all competitions without a win. The latest was a 3-0 home defeat to Bournemouth on Sunday, four days after a 4-1 loss to Como in the Champions League, which makes seven goals conceded in two games.
Michael Carrick was expected to stay in charge at least until the November international break. The Bournemouth result has put that timetable under strain, and Saturday’s trip to Stamford Bridge, kick-off 12:30 UK time on 31 October, comes at a bad moment for him.
Chelsea have their own bruise to treat. Xabi Alonso’s side lost 2-0 at home to Tottenham on 24 October, the first time since December 1986 that Spurs had won at Stamford Bridge while keeping Chelsea off the scoresheet, and Cole Palmer was sent off for a second booking after stamping on Conor Gallagher.
The table still favours the hosts. Chelsea have 13 points from eight games and had beaten Bournemouth 5-1 and Everton 2-0 before Spurs arrived. United have seven points from eight and haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their last five league matches.
Prediction markets have Chelsea at around 1.89, with the draw at 4.00. Given what United have produced over the last month, I think the home price is fair value rather than a trap.
Recent meetings give United a little to cling to. They won 1-0 at Stamford Bridge on 18 April 2026, and the last five league games between the clubs are split two wins apiece with one draw.
Chelsea: 17 league goals, but eight conceded from set pieces and a 21-year-old in goal 
Chelsea have scored 17 league goals this season, and the 5-1 against Bournemouth on 10 October showed how quickly they can put a game away. Morgan Rogers has four goals and 14 chances created, and Pedro Neto has three goals and ten shots on target.
The defence is a different matter. Chelsea have conceded 15 in eight league games, eight of them from set pieces, which is double any other side in the division. The opener against Spurs came from a Mateus Fernandes corner that Mike Penders punched into his own net on 77 minutes.
Penders is in the side because Emiliano Martínez is out with a head injury. He made his first league start against Spurs, and the way that corner was handled will be on United’s analysis reel this week.
Palmer’s red card carries a one-match ban, and it falls on Wednesday’s Carabao Cup tie at Liverpool, so he’s available on Saturday. Joao Pedro is a doubt after tests on fluid in his knee, while Reece James (knee), Jamie Gittens (ankle) and Emmanuel Emegha (hamstring) are all out.
The bigger worry for Alonso is the schedule. Chelsea go to Anfield on Wednesday night, and heavy minutes there would cut into their recovery before a lunchtime kick-off. It’s the one reason I’d hesitate, and it isn’t enough to change my view.
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Manchester United: seven goals conceded in two games and a long injury list 
United’s league form before Sunday followed a pattern: draws at Everton (2-2), Fulham (1-1) and Leeds (1-1), a 1-1 at home to Tottenham, and a 1-0 home defeat to Manchester City. They weren’t losing often, but they weren’t winning either, and the Bournemouth game broke even that.
Bruno Fernandes spent the whole of the 3-0 defeat on the bench. He has created 16 chances this season, the most in the squad, and he should be back in the starting line-up at Stamford Bridge.
Bryan Mbeumo carries the goal threat, with four goals from 24 shots. Behind him the options are thin. Benjamin Sesko (shin), Patrick Dorgu (hamstring), Manuel Ugarte (knee) and Luke Shaw are all out, Kobbie Mainoo isn’t expected back until 8 November, and Marcus Rashford is managing a hip problem.
Lisandro Martínez is fit again and came off the bench on Sunday, which gives Carrick a choice at centre-back alongside Harry Maguire and Leny Yoro. Whoever plays, the defence has conceded in each of United’s last five league games.
United don’t play again in the league until Aston Villa visit on 8 November, so they have no midweek fixture to manage. That gives Carrick a full week on the training ground, which is more than Alonso has, though seven goals conceded in four days suggest the issues go beyond fatigue.
Probable lineup Chelsea: Penders; Colwill, Lacroix, Acheampong; Hato, Henderson, Caicedo, Quenda; Neto, Palmer; Rogers
Probable lineup Manchester United: Lammens; Dalot, Yoro, Maguire, Heaven; Baleba, Santos; Amad, Fernandes, Mount; Mbeumo
Free Premier League Prediction: Chelsea vs Manchester United
Our prediction: Chelsea to win (1.89)
Chelsea scored in three of their last five league games and put five past Bournemouth this month, the same Bournemouth side that won 3-0 at Old Trafford on Sunday. United haven’t won in eight and have conceded seven in their last two matches.
Backing Chelsea at 1.89 means trusting a home side that has just lost to Spurs. I accept that. The defeat came from an own goal and a red card, and the expected goals finished 0.74 to 0.43 in Spurs’ favour, which describes a tight game rather than a team in decline.
The Anfield trip on Wednesday is the variable to watch. If Alonso rotates there, Chelsea should arrive in better shape than a United side whose manager is fighting for his job, and I’d expect the hosts to win by at least a goal.
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