- 1 SV Elversberg vs Mainz 05: level on ten points, and two sides whose games rarely stay quiet
- 2 SV Elversberg: eight goals in three home games, and a squad running short
- 3 Mainz 05: three away wins from three, and no league win at home
- 4 Free Bundesliga Prediction: SV Elversberg vs Mainz 05
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
SV Elversberg vs Mainz 05: level on ten points, and two sides whose games rarely stay quiet 
RB Leipzig beat Elversberg 4-0 on Saturday, and all four goals came after a goalless first half. Gomis scored on 48 minutes, Rômulo on 66 and again in stoppage time, and Baumgartner on 84.
It was the heaviest defeat of Elversberg’s first Bundesliga season, but it didn’t cost them much ground. They’re eighth with ten points from seven games, level with Mainz, who sit seventh on goal difference after losing 3-2 at home to Werder Bremen on the same afternoon.
The two meet at the Ursapharm-Arena an der Kaiserlinde on Friday 30 October, kick-off 19:30 UK time, in the opening game of Bundesliga matchday 8. Both played second-round DFB-Pokal ties on Tuesday, Elversberg at home to Darmstadt and Mainz at Bochum, so each side gets three days to recover before Friday.
The figures that frame this one are the goal totals. Mainz games have produced 29 goals in seven league fixtures, and Elversberg’s three home league games finished 3-2, 1-2 and 4-3, so each of them had at least three goals with both teams scoring.
The clubs have only met twice in competitive football, both times in the first round of the DFB-Pokal at Elversberg. Mainz won on penalties after a 2-2 draw in August 2021, then 1-0 in August 2023 through an Ajorque penalty on 73 minutes.
SV Elversberg: eight goals in three home games, and a squad running short 
Vincent Wagner’s side have been a different team at the Kaiserlinde. They beat Bayer Leverkusen 3-2 on 29 August, lost 2-1 to Bayern Munich on 13 September and beat Augsburg 4-3 on 17 October, scoring eight and conceding seven across those three games.
Away from home the record reads one win, one draw and two defeats, with four goals scored and eight conceded. The win was a 4-3 at Borussia Mönchengladbach on 5 September, and since then they’ve drawn 0-0 at Schalke and lost at Union Berlin and in Leipzig.
Krattenmacher leads their league scoring with three goals, ahead of Mokwa and Petkov on two each. Schmahl scored against Augsburg, and Petkov and Mokwa started together up front again on Saturday.
The injury list is long for a promoted squad. Tom Zimmerschied and Luis Seifert have ankle problems, Noah Darvich missed Leipzig with a muscle injury and Cole Campbell is listed with an ankle problem. Gyamerah went off after 59 minutes in Leipzig with what looked like a muscle injury in his right leg.
Francis Onyeka, who scored twice late on in the first-round cup win at Duisburg, is a doubt with a foot problem, and Felix Keidel started in Leipzig despite a calf issue. Tuesday’s cup tie with Darmstadt puts another 90 minutes, possibly more, into legs that are already stretched.
There’s been one win in their last five league games. That win was the 4-3 against Augsburg on this ground, and I’d weigh their home form far more heavily than the trip to Leipzig.
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Mainz 05: three away wins from three, and no league win at home 
Urs Fischer’s side have a strange split. At home they’ve drawn 0-0 with Paderborn and lost to Eintracht Frankfurt, Leverkusen and Bremen. Away they’ve won all three league games, 5-0 at Hamburg, 4-3 at Gladbach and 1-0 at Schalke, scoring ten and conceding three.
The win at Schalke on 17 October was settled by Tietz, and it was a club-record fifth straight away league win, a run that started last season.
Tietz is the main threat. He scored four in the 9-0 cup win at Krieschow in August, and he had four league goals before the trip to Gelsenkirchen. Caci and Lee Jae-Sung both scored against Bremen, and Becker had two league goals and three assists at that same stage.
The defence is where the doubts start. Bremen scored three times at Mainz on Saturday, two of them Füllkrug penalties inside 25 minutes, and Mainz have conceded 13 in seven league games. The 4-3 home defeat to Leverkusen on 10 October was another afternoon on which three goals of their own weren’t enough.
Robin Zentner is out with a hand injury, so Schwolow stays in goal. Dominik Kohr, Otto Ruoppi, Mvumpa and Silas are also missing, and Fischer set up in a 3-5-2 against Bremen with da Costa, Posch and Potulski at the back.
The cup tie in Bochum adds a further variable. Rotation is expected from both coaches after Tuesday, and Mainz host Bayern Munich on 7 November, the same day Elversberg go to Dortmund.
Probable lineup SV Elversberg: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Mainz 05: Not announced at time of publication
Free Bundesliga Prediction: SV Elversberg vs Mainz 05
Our prediction: Over 2.5 goals (1.50)
Mainz are favourites at 2.05, and their away record supports that, but I’d rather take over 2.5 goals at 1.50. Five of Mainz’s seven league games have gone over the line, and all three of Elversberg’s home games have produced at least three goals.
Both defences are short of bodies. Elversberg could be without Gyamerah, Zimmerschied and Seifert, while Mainz will have played a cup tie at Bochum on Tuesday and have conceded three or more in two of their last three league games.
The two cup meetings were tight, a 2-2 after extra time in 2021 and a 1-0 in 2023, and tired legs after a midweek tie can slow a game down. Neither side has shown much interest in slowing down this season, and I’d expect at least three goals on Friday night.
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