- 1 Vegas Golden Knights vs Ottawa Senators: three straight defeats for Vegas, 4.9 penalties a night from Ottawa
- 2 Vegas Golden Knights: 3.5 goals a game, and 14 conceded in three
- 3 Ottawa Senators: Batherson’s 11 points in 10, and no Ullmark or Chabot
- 4 Free NHL Prediction: Vegas Golden Knights vs Ottawa Senators
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Vegas Golden Knights vs Ottawa Senators: three straight defeats for Vegas, 4.9 penalties a night from Ottawa 
Vegas lost 6-2 to Tampa Bay and 6-2 in St. Louis in the space of three days, then went down 2-1 in overtime in Columbus on Saturday. That’s three defeats in a row for last season’s Stanley Cup finalists, and they come home to T-Mobile Arena on Tuesday 27 October to face the Ottawa Senators, with puck drop at 10:00pm ET.
The record still looks healthy at 8-4-1, and Vegas are 5-2-0 at home. They’ve scored 46 goals, sixth in the league at 3.5 per game. The trouble has been at the other end: 12 goals against in the first two games of this losing run.
Ottawa arrive at 8-4-0 with 16 points, second in the Atlantic Division. They’ve been almost as unpredictable as their hosts this past week, beating Florida 5-1, losing 6-2 at home to San Jose and then beating the Rangers 7-4 on Saturday.
This is the first meeting of the season between the two teams. Neither has a settled defensive look right now. Ottawa have Linus Ullmark and Thomas Chabot out for one to two weeks, and Vegas are still without Mitch Marner, who’s away for personal reasons.
Sportsbooks hadn’t posted a line for this game by Monday morning, so the numbers below are what we’re working from rather than a market price. We aren’t picking a side on the moneyline. We think the goals are the better angle, and the recent scorelines of both teams point the same way.
Vegas Golden Knights: 3.5 goals a game, and 14 conceded in three 
Mark Stone has eight goals and seven assists, and Jack Eichel has five goals and eight assists over the last 10 games. Those two have kept the offense near the top of the league even through the slump, and Vegas have averaged 3.5 goals in that 10-game span.
Vegas allowed 2.9 goals per game across their last 10, and that figure jumped during the road trip. Tampa Bay and St. Louis both scored six, and Columbus needed overtime to win a game in which Vegas scored only once.
Four names sit on the Vegas injury list. Marner is out for personal reasons, defenseman Parker Wotherspoon is on injured reserve with an upper-body problem, and Victor Olofsson and Kai Uchacz are both listed out. Marner is the biggest name on that list, and he was already unavailable before Saturday’s game in Columbus.
Carter Hart is listed in goal for Tuesday. Behind a defense that has given up 14 goals across three games, his workload will be heavy against a team that has scored seven in its latest outing.
The home record is the one thing in Vegas’s favour. They’re 5-2-0 at T-Mobile Arena, and at least two of the three recent defeats came on the road, in St. Louis and Columbus. Vegas reached the Stanley Cup Final in June and lost it in six games to Carolina.
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Ottawa Senators: Batherson’s 11 points in 10, and no Ullmark or Chabot 
Drake Batherson has six goals and five assists in Ottawa’s last 10 games. Claude Giroux has two goals and six assists. The Senators have averaged 2.9 goals and allowed 2.7 over those 10, going 6-4-0.
The penalty count is the number we’d watch in Las Vegas. Ottawa have taken 59 penalties, 4.9 per game, the second-highest total in the league. Most of those hand a power play to a Vegas team that averages 3.5 goals a game.
Ottawa’s absences are concentrated at the back. Ullmark, the No. 1 goalie, has a lower-body injury, and Chabot is out with an upper-body problem. Both are expected to miss one to two weeks. William Eklund is gone for 10 to 12 weeks after ankle surgery.
Samuel Ersson is listed to start in Ullmark’s place. He was in net for a week in which Ottawa won 5-1, lost 6-2 and won 7-4, and the 6-2 defeat came at home to San Jose.
Ottawa are 3-2-0 on the road, so this trip west starts from a winning record away from home. Last season ended in a first-round sweep by Carolina, and after 12 games this season they sit second in the Atlantic, level on 16 points with Toronto.
Probable lineup Vegas Golden Knights: Carter Hart in goal; Eichel, Stone up front (Marner, Olofsson out)
Probable lineup Ottawa Senators: Samuel Ersson in goal; Batherson, Giroux up front (Ullmark, Chabot, Eklund out)
Free NHL Prediction: Vegas Golden Knights vs Ottawa Senators
Our prediction: Over 6.5 goals
Ottawa’s last three games produced six, eight and 11 goals. Vegas’s produced eight, eight and three, an average of 6.3 across the run. Both teams are missing a first-choice piece in their defensive structure, and Ottawa are without their starting goalie.
The Columbus game is the one result that argues for Under, a 2-1 overtime finish in which Vegas managed a single goal in more than 60 minutes. We’d set it against the 12 goals Vegas gave up in the two games before it, and the 4.9 penalties a game that Ottawa will bring into a building where Vegas are 5-2-0.
The total hadn’t been released when we filed, so check that the line is 6.5 before betting. If it opens at 6.5 or lower, Over is our pick. If it opens at 7, we’d still lean Over, but the margin gets thinner.
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