- 1 Rot-Weiss Essen vs RB Leipzig: five straight away defeats for Leipzig, and a Hafenstrasse that hasn’t seen Essen lose
- 2 Rot-Weiss Essen: third in the 3. Liga, unbeaten at home and scoring every time
- 3 RB Leipzig: 20 league goals, but 10 conceded in their last five matches
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Rot-Weiss Essen vs RB Leipzig
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Rot-Weiss Essen vs RB Leipzig: five straight away defeats for Leipzig, and a Hafenstrasse that hasn’t seen Essen lose 
RB Leipzig have lost their last five away matches. The two most recent were heavy ones: 6-1 at Bayern Munich on 17 October and 4-1 at Real Madrid in the Champions League four days later. On Tuesday they go to Rot-Weiss Essen, who haven’t lost at home in any competition this season.
Kick-off is 17:00 UK time on Tuesday 27 October at the Stadion an der Hafenstrasse, which holds around 20,000. It’s the second round of the DFB-Pokal, so a draw after 90 minutes goes to extra time and penalties.
The clubs have met once before, at the same ground in the first round in August 2024. Ramien Safi put Essen ahead after two minutes, and Leipzig came back to win 4-1 through Benjamin Sesko, Lois Openda, Antonio Nusa and Xavi Simons.
The gap in level is obvious. Leipzig are fifth in the Bundesliga with 12 points from seven games and 20 goals scored, while Essen play in the 3. Liga. They’re doing well there, though: Uwe Koschinat’s side are third with 21 points from 11 matches.
Essen also knocked out a Bundesliga club in the first round this season, beating FC St. Pauli 2-0 at the Hafenstrasse, with Marek Janssen and Semir Telalovic scoring. Their home record across league and cup is six wins and one draw.
Bookmakers make Leipzig 1.18 to 1.22 to win in 90 minutes, with the draw at 7.50 and Essen at 11.00. Both teams to score is priced at 1.77, and Leipzig’s recent defending is the main reason I think that price is too long.
Rot-Weiss Essen: third in the 3. Liga, unbeaten at home and scoring every time 
Koschinat’s side beat Jahn Regensburg 1-0 at home on Friday, four days after a 1-0 defeat at Ingolstadt. Before that they beat Fortuna Koln 2-0 at the Hafenstrasse and drew 3-3 at Preussen Munster, where Janssen, Rios Alonso and Telalovic, with a penalty, got the goals.
Janssen and Telalovic are the two names that matter most. Both scored against St. Pauli in August and both scored in Munster, and they’re expected to lead the line again on Tuesday.
Essen have scored in all of their home league games this season. That record is the base of the argument here: a side that’s used to scoring in front of its own crowd, against a Leipzig defence that’s been opened up away from home.
There are absences. Tony Menzel suffered a serious ankle ligament injury and isn’t expected back until December, and Max Geschwill was reported to have knee problems in September, with no update on his status since. Jakob Golz is expected in goal.
Essen have 19 goals in 11 league games and have conceded 13. Their 1-1 draw with Hansa Rostock on 20 September is the only home game they haven’t won this season, and they’ve kept the visitors to three goals across those seven matches at the Hafenstrasse.
no renewal
Free for 2 weeks.
RB Leipzig: 20 league goals, but 10 conceded in their last five matches 
Martin Demichelis’s side swing between extremes. At home they beat Eintracht Frankfurt 6-0 on 10 October, PSV 1-0 in the Champions League and Elversberg 4-0 on Saturday. Away, they lost 6-1 in Munich and 4-1 in Madrid.
Across those five games Leipzig scored 13 and conceded 10, and every goal against came on the road. Andrija Maksimovic scored their only goal at Bayern, and Tidiam Gomis scored the one in Madrid.
Saturday’s win over Elversberg brought Gomis another goal, plus two from Romulo and one from Christoph Baumgartner. Demichelis also started Orjan Nyland in goal instead of Maarten Vandevoordt, which suggests more rotation is likely in Essen.
Assan Ouedraogo is out until the end of December with a shoulder injury, Marc Guiu has a muscle problem, and Christopher Nkunku is doubtful with an adductor issue. David Raum, Nusa and Romulo remain available.
Leipzig reached this round with a 6-0 win at Eintracht Trier in August. Their league record is four wins and three defeats, with 20 goals scored and 11 conceded, and six of those 11 came in the single afternoon at the Allianz Arena.
Probable lineup Rot-Weiss Essen: Not announced at time of publication (Golz in goal, Janssen and Telalovic up front)
Probable lineup RB Leipzig: Not announced at time of publication (rotation expected, Nyland in contention to start in goal)
Free Football Prediction: Rot-Weiss Essen vs RB Leipzig
Our prediction: Both teams to score @ 1.77
Leipzig should win, and the price on them reflects that. The question is whether Essen can score, and their home record says they usually do: they’ve scored in every home league game, they put two past St. Pauli in August, and they scored against Leipzig inside two minutes the last time the sides met here.
Leipzig have conceded 10 goals in their last two away games. A rotated side, possibly with a change in goal and without Ouedraogo, isn’t the most secure line-up to send to a ground where the hosts haven’t lost all season.
The risk is that Leipzig control the ball so completely that Essen hardly get forward, as Frankfurt and Elversberg found in Leipzig. The handicap at 1.50 is the alternative for anyone expecting a rout, but Leipzig haven’t produced that kind of performance away from home this season. I’d still back Essen to find one goal at the Hafenstrasse, and both teams to score at 1.77 is the pick.
in your pocket.
Real-time notifications & alerts
_________
About our free predictions
- What we publish on MathOdds are analyses, nothing more. We share a view, a reading of the moment, but never a guarantee. Sport remains what it is: unpredictable. A red card, an injury, a last-minute goal, and the script changes completely.
- Let’s be clear: there is no such thing as a risk-free bet. Even when it looks “obvious”, nothing ever is. And yes, that means you can lose. It’s even inevitable at some point.
- The smartest approach is to stay reasonable. Bet small, set a budget and stick to it. Never use money you need to live on. And above all: don’t chase your losses: that rarely ends well.
- A bet should remain a game, not a job or a source of income. If it starts taking up too much space in your daily life, causes stress or frustration, take a break. And if needed, talk to a support organisation: that’s what they’re there for.
- Ultimately, responsibility lies with you. Reading our content means accepting that risk exists and will never disappear, no matter how good the analysis.
- Essential reminder: gambling is prohibited for minors and must comply with the laws of your country. Need help? Visit begambleaware.org.
No commitment from us
Our predictions carry no contractual value. They have no legal standing. In short: you cannot rely on them to claim anything if a bet doesn’t come through.
Information changes
A prediction is always based on what we know at the time of writing. But between publication and kick-off, a lineup can change, a player picks up an injury, the weather turns, and the analysis can quickly be outdated. We cannot be held responsible for that.
Your responsibility
Before placing a bet, simply check that gambling is legal in your country. If it isn’t, that’s your responsibility, not ours.
Responsible gambling
We can’t say it enough: gamble responsibly. If you’re struggling to stay in control, don’t wait to seek help.
Legal age
MathOdds content is intended for adults only. By browsing here, you confirm you meet the legal age requirement for gambling in your jurisdiction.
About visuals
The images and logos of Rot-Weiss Essen and RB Leipzig on MathOdds are used solely to illustrate our articles. They do not imply any official affiliation with a federation or sports organisation, and we claim no rights over them. Those rights belong to their original owners. If any visual raises a concern, contact us and it will be removed without delay.
Leave a Reply