- 1 Milwaukee Bucks vs Indiana Pacers: a winless defense against a team on its second night in two days
- 2 Milwaukee Bucks: 62 rebounds in Philadelphia, 22 turnovers and an 11-point loss
- 3 Indiana Pacers: Haliburton is back, the three-point shooting isn’t
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks vs Indiana Pacers
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Milwaukee Bucks vs Indiana Pacers: a winless defense against a team on its second night in two days 
Giannis Antetokounmpo scored 31 points the last time Indiana visited Milwaukee, a 134-123 Bucks win on 15 March that finished off a 4-0 season sweep. He plays for Miami now, traded with Bobby Portis in June, and the Bucks team hosting the Pacers at Fiserv Forum on Monday 26 October (8:00pm ET) hasn’t won a game yet.
Milwaukee is 0-3 under new head coach Taylor Jenkins, and the defense is the reason. The Bucks gave up 128 points in Washington on opening night, 132 at home to Chicago on Friday and 127 in Philadelphia on Saturday. They allowed 121.3 a game in the preseason as well, so this isn’t a three-game blip.
Indiana gets here on the tightest schedule possible: the Pacers play in Brooklyn at 6:00pm ET on Sunday and then travel to Wisconsin for the second game of a back-to-back. They split their first two games: a 123-120 comeback win in New Orleans after trailing by 10, then a 121-105 home loss to Dallas in which they were down 34 at halftime.
Indiana has lost five straight to the Bucks, including its last four trips to Milwaukee, and its all-time road record in this matchup is 35-75. Most of that damage came with Antetokounmpo on the floor, which is why I don’t put much weight on it.
What matters more is how both teams have lost. Milwaukee turns the ball over and can’t get stops. Indiana gave it away 21 times against Dallas and missed 25 of 32 threes, and one of those two sets of problems looks a lot easier to fix in 24 hours than the other.
Milwaukee Bucks: 62 rebounds in Philadelphia, 22 turnovers and an 11-point loss 
Saturday’s game in Philadelphia showed both sides of this roster. Milwaukee grabbed 62 rebounds, 17 of them offensive, and scored 20 second-chance points against a 76ers team playing without LeBron James. The Bucks still lost 127-116, because they turned the ball over 22 times and made 11 of 34 threes.
Jaime Jaquez Jr. led them with 21 points, and Kyle Kuzma added 14 points and 12 rebounds. Tyler Herro, the centerpiece of the return from Miami, managed 13 a night after scoring a game-high 34 against Chicago on 5-of-10 shooting from three.
The Chicago loss worries me more than the Philadelphia one. Milwaukee led by 15 after the first quarter on Friday, then allowed 115 points over the last three and lost 132-125 at home. It was the second night of a back-to-back, the same spot Indiana is in on Monday, but the Bucks shot 50% and made 19 of 46 threes and still couldn’t hold on.
On opening night Washington closed with a 21-4 run in the fourth quarter to win 128-116, with Anthony Davis scoring 34 and grabbing 12 rebounds and Trae Young handing out 13 assists. The Wizards missed 18 of their first 22 threes that night and still put up 77 points after halftime.
Jenkins has a roster built around the three-point line. About half of Milwaukee’s preseason shots came from deep, and the Bucks have taken 41, 46 and 34 threes in their three regular-season games. When those fall they can stay level with most of the East, and when they don’t, the defense behind them hasn’t kept a single game within reach.
Milwaukee does have the rest advantage, having last played on Saturday, while Indiana will have finished in Brooklyn roughly 26 hours before tip-off. Kel’el Ware and Kasparas Jakucionis, both part of the Antetokounmpo trade, give Jenkins fresh bodies to throw at the Pacers’ starters if their legs go in the second half.
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Indiana Pacers: Haliburton is back, the three-point shooting isn’t 
Tyrese Haliburton had 23 points and 12 assists in the win in New Orleans, then 18 points, seven assists and six rebounds against Dallas, and he’s averaging 20.5 points and 9.5 assists through two games.
Pascal Siakam has carried the scoring with 26.5 points a game, 30 of them in the opener. Andrew Nembhard is at 17.0 points and 7.0 assists, and Ivica Zubac has given Rick Carlisle 12.5 points and 13.0 rebounds a night, which matters against a Bucks team that just won the glass 62-40 in Philadelphia.
The Dallas game was a mess from the start. Indiana trailed by 34 at halftime, committed 21 turnovers that became 31 Mavericks points, and made seven of 32 threes. Siakam scored 23 but had five of those turnovers himself.
Across two games the Pacers are shooting 25.8% from three and averaging 17.0 turnovers. Those are bad numbers, but the 48.3% they’re shooting overall says the offense is getting good looks inside the arc. Last season Indiana ranked 27th in offensive efficiency without Haliburton, and that isn’t the team on the floor now.
Johnny Furphy is out after ACL surgery, T.J. McConnell has a hamstring strain, Ben Sheppard has a torn meniscus and Aaron Nesmith has already missed a game with a hamstring problem. McConnell’s absence hurts most on a back-to-back, since he’s usually the first guard Carlisle turns to when Haliburton sits.
The Pacers lost 33 of their 41 road games last season, though their only road game so far this season, in New Orleans, ended in a win. Carlisle, in his 10th season in charge, is 30 wins from passing Rick Adelman for 10th place on the NBA’s all-time coaching list.
Probable lineup Milwaukee Bucks: Not announced at time of publication (Tyler Herro, Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Kyle Kuzma have carried the scoring)
Probable lineup Indiana Pacers: Tyrese Haliburton, Andrew Nembhard, Pascal Siakam, Ivica Zubac (all four have started both games), fifth starter not announced at time of publication
Free NBA Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks vs Indiana Pacers
Our prediction: Indiana Pacers to win (moneyline)
I’m backing Indiana despite the back-to-back. Milwaukee has allowed at least 127 points in every game, and the Pacers’ top four of Siakam, Haliburton, Nembhard and Zubac is averaging a combined 76.5 points, so Indiana shouldn’t need a big shooting night to get into the 120s.
The Bucks’ one clear strength is the offensive glass, and Zubac’s 13 rebounds a game is the best answer the Pacers have for it. Milwaukee’s turnovers, 22 of them in Philadelphia, also feed a team that wants Haliburton running in transition.
The schedule is the case against: Indiana will have played in Brooklyn the night before, and the Bucks will be rested. I still trust the better backcourt over a team that hasn’t stopped anyone in three games. Prices weren’t posted at the time of writing, and I’d only take this at 1.45 or above.
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