- 1 Monza vs Napoli: a promoted side that always scores against a defence that keeps leaking
- 2 Monza: goals in every game, and 18 conceded
- 3 Napoli: three goals conceded in each of their last two home games
- 4 Free Serie A Prediction: Monza vs Napoli
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Monza vs Napoli: a promoted side that always scores against a defence that keeps leaking 
Gustavo Varela went into Friday’s game in Turin as joint top scorer in Serie A with seven goals, and scored again two minutes after half-time. Bought from Benfica in the summer, he’s the main reason newly promoted Monza have one of the more productive attacks in the bottom half of the table.
Monza have scored in all eight of their league games, 15 goals in total. They’ve also conceded 18, which is why they have only seven points and sit in the bottom half. Friday’s 3-2 defeat at Torino followed a 4-0 home win over Cagliari four days earlier.
Napoli come to the U-Power Stadium on Wednesday 28 October, kick-off 19:45 UK time, after a 3-3 draw with Roma on Saturday. They led 2-0 and 3-2 at the Maradona and were pegged back both times, with Roma’s equaliser arriving on 89 minutes.
Massimiliano Allegri’s side have 11 points from eight games and have conceded 10 league goals. In the Champions League they let in three against Bodø/Glimt on 20 October and three at Villarreal a week earlier.
The schedule is heavy. Wednesday’s match is part of a run of seven games in 21 days for Napoli, with Juventus away on 1 November and Porto in the Champions League after that. Monza played on Friday and get one more day of rest.
Napoli are favourites at around 1.96, with Monza at 4.02 and the draw at 3.92. We’re looking at the goals market instead, because both sides’ numbers point the same way.
Monza: goals in every game, and 18 conceded 
Ivan Juric took charge on 29 June after Monza went up through the Serie B play-offs. The club signed 13 players in the summer, and Varela, Robinson, Mangas and Kouadio have all scored in the league.
The 4-0 win over Cagliari on 19 October was the best of their season. Kouadio opened the scoring on 40 minutes, Varela scored twice and Robinson added another, and it was Monza’s first clean sheet in Serie A this season.
Home form has been solid. Monza have won two of their three league games at the U-Power Stadium, against Sassuolo and Cagliari, and lost 3-2 to Udinese, scoring eight goals and conceding four across the three.
The defence is the weak point. Monza conceded three at Lazio, three at Lecce, three at Torino and four at Inter, and they’ve let in at least three goals in five of their eight league matches.
There’s an extra storyline in the squad. Ngonge and Folorunsho both joined on loan from Napoli in the summer, and Ngonge’s cross led to the stoppage-time own goal in Turin. Zeballos, Pessina, Ziolkowski, Touré and Maye are all out injured.
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Napoli: three goals conceded in each of their last two home games 
Napoli beat Bodø/Glimt 4-3 and drew 3-3 with Roma, both at home within five days. Scott McTominay scored twice in each match, including a diving header and a low finish into the far corner against Roma, and he’s now Napoli’s main source of goals.
The defence has gone the other way. Buongiorno is out until January after knee surgery, Rrahmani missed Saturday’s game with flu, and Badiashile limped off against Roma with a problem in his right thigh, replaced by Beukema. That leaves Allegri short of centre-backs for Wednesday.
Allegri was also sent off from the touchline for dissent against Roma. Whether he’s on the bench in Monza depends on the disciplinary decision due before the game.
Away from home Napoli have one league win in four. They won 2-0 at Genoa on the opening day, lost 3-2 at Inter, drew 1-1 at Fiorentina and lost 1-0 at Venezia on 17 October, scoring five and conceding five.
The squad still has quality going forward. De Bruyne, Højlund, Politano and Lang all started against Roma, and Napoli have scored in seven of their eight league games. Alisson Santos, Favasuli and Neres remain on the injury list.
Probable lineup Monza: Törnqvist; Goglichidze, Lucchesi, Carboni; Birindelli, Ondoa, Akinsanmiro, Mangas; Mota, Robinson; Varela
Probable lineup Napoli: Meret; Di Lorenzo, Marín, Beukema, Olivera; Anguissa, De Bruyne, McTominay; Politano, Højlund, Lang
Free Serie A Prediction: Monza vs Napoli
Our prediction: Both teams to score – Yes (1.65)
We’re backing goals at both ends. Monza have scored in every one of their eight league games, and Napoli have scored in seven of theirs. Napoli conceded three in each of their last two home matches, and they travel without Buongiorno and possibly without Badiashile and Rrahmani.
Monza’s own defence gives Napoli every chance to score. They’ve conceded three or more in five of eight league games, and Napoli’s attack with McTominay, De Bruyne and Højlund has produced seven goals in the last two matches alone.
The head-to-head adds some support. Monza scored twice in each of their first two home league meetings with Napoli, beating them 2-0 in May 2023 and losing 4-2 in April 2024. At 1.65, both teams to score is our pick.
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