- 1 Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax: a 17-year wait at Het Kasteel and a defence that keeps opening up
- 2 Sparta Rotterdam: 13 goals conceded in four games and one striker carrying the attack
- 3 Ajax: ten goals in two league away trips despite seven players on the treatment table
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax: a 17-year wait at Het Kasteel and a defence that keeps opening up 
Sparta Rotterdam haven’t beaten Ajax since 2009. Across the 18 meetings in the recent record, Ajax have won 15 and Sparta have drawn the other three, which means the home crowd at Het Kasteel on Sunday will be watching a fixture their side has gone a generation without winning.
The context makes that run harder to break. Sparta sit 13th in the Eredivisie with nine points from nine games, two wins, three draws and four defeats, and a goal difference of minus six. Ajax are fourth on 18 points with a goal difference of plus 15, one point behind PSV in third and five behind Feyenoord, who lead the table on 23.
Kick-off is at 15:45 UK time on Sunday 25 October, the first day back on GMT after the clocks change, and Danny Makkelie has the whistle for this round ten fixture. It’s the second of three games in eight days for both clubs: Ajax played in the Conference League on Thursday, and Sparta have a KNVB Cup tie against Fortuna Sittard on Wednesday.
The recent meetings in Rotterdam haven’t followed the one-sided pattern of the overall record. The last three visits to Het Kasteel finished 2-2 in March 2024, 0-2 in December 2024 and 3-3 in October 2025, so Sparta have scored five times in their last three home games against Ajax. The most recent meeting of all went the other way, a 4-0 Ajax win in Amsterdam on 14 March 2026.
The bookmakers have Ajax at 1.53, the draw at 4.40 and Sparta at 4.80. Those prices reflect a gap in form as much as a gap in the table, because Sparta have conceded 13 goals in their last four league matches while Ajax scored ten in their last two league trips away from home.
Sparta Rotterdam: 13 goals conceded in four games and one striker carrying the attack 
Rogier Meijer’s side finally won last weekend, beating Willem II 3-2 at home, and that result ended a run of five league games without a victory. The sequence before it explains why Sparta are where they are: a 2-1 defeat at Excelsior, a 2-2 draw with PEC Zwolle, a 4-1 loss at PSV, a 4-0 home defeat to Heerenveen and a 3-3 draw at Go Ahead Eagles.
Add the Willem II game and the numbers become stark. Sparta have conceded 13 goals across their last four league matches, and the 0-4 against Heerenveen on 19 September came at Het Kasteel, where they need to be at their most solid. Willem II, the side they beat last week, are bottom of the table with two points.
The scoring load falls almost entirely on Milan Zonneveld. He has six league goals this season, and nobody else in the squad has more than two, with defenders Lushendry Martes and Marvin Young next on the list. When Zonneveld is marked out of a game, Sparta don’t have an obvious second route to goal.
There is some stability to work with. Meijer has kept 82% of his starting XI over the last six matches and named the same side in the last two, so the players know each other’s movements even if the results haven’t followed. Shunsuke Mito is the main absentee, with Eiting out with a knee problem and Van Bergen unavailable.
Young has started each of the last four meetings with Ajax, and he’ll likely anchor a back five built to absorb pressure. I’d expect Sparta to sit deep and hope that Zonneveld can turn one of a handful of chances into a goal, which is roughly how they earned the 3-3 here a year ago.
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Ajax: ten goals in two league away trips despite seven players on the treatment table 
Ajax arrive in Rotterdam three days after beating Atalanta 2-0 in the Conference League, a game they won with two goals in the final five minutes. Tolu Arokodare scored on 87 minutes and then set up Abdellah Ouazane for the second, a late burst that repaired some of the damage from the 2-1 defeat at Hajduk Split a week earlier.
Their league form away from Amsterdam has been far stronger than their form at home. Michel’s side won 5-1 at Fortuna Sittard on 12 September and 5-2 at Groningen on 18 October, while at the Johan Cruijff ArenA they lost 3-1 to PSV, drew 2-2 with Excelsior and drew 1-1 with NEC. That split matters on Sunday, because the open spaces they’ve exploited on their travels are exactly what a stretched Sparta defence tends to concede.
Julian Brandt leads the scoring with six league goals. Behind him the goals are shared around: Davy Klaassen and Jorthy Mokio have three goals and an assist each, Oscar Gloukh has four assists and a goal, and Arokodare has started to contribute after his decisive night against Atalanta.
The injury list is long. Kasper Dolberg damaged his knee in training with Denmark during the international break, Blind has a back problem, Caio Henrique is out with a thigh injury and Steven Berghuis, Oliver Edvardsen, Gaaei and Simon Adingra are also unavailable. Michel has kept only 65% of his starting XI over the last six matches, partly through rotation and partly because the squad has thinned out.
Klaassen has started all four of the last recorded meetings with Sparta, and he’s likely to sit alongside Amrabat in midfield again. With Thursday’s European game still in the legs, some rotation is possible, but the attacking unit of Brandt, Gloukh and Arokodare has been the one that delivered both of those away wins.
Probable lineup Sparta Rotterdam: Brouwer; Martes, Young, Verschuren, Martins Indi, Kuipers; Van Cruijsen, Toornstra, Hatenboer, Babadi; Zonneveld
Probable lineup Ajax: Ter Stegen; Rosa, Kehrer, Baas, Wijndal; Klaassen, Amrabat; Tsygankov, Brandt, Gloukh; Arokodare
Free Football Prediction: Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax
Our prediction: Ajax to win (1.53)
The case against this pick is the recent history at Het Kasteel, where Sparta have drawn two of the last three games against Ajax and scored five goals in those three meetings. I take that seriously, but those draws came against Ajax sides that weren’t scoring five away from home, and against a Sparta team that wasn’t conceding at the rate this one is.
Sparta have let in 13 goals in four league games, they lean on a single striker for most of their goals, and their last two home league games before Willem II ended 2-2 and 0-4. Ajax, meanwhile, have scored ten goals in their last two league away games and come into Sunday with the confidence of a late European win.
The fixture list also favours the visitors in a quieter way: Sparta have a cup tie on Wednesday and may not throw everything at a game they’re expected to lose, while Ajax need the points to keep pace with PSV. I’d back Ajax to win at 1.53, with more than one goal in it the likeliest shape.
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