- 1 Washington Capitals vs Buffalo Sabres: Alex Tuch against his old team, with Buffalo last in the Atlantic
- 2 Washington Capitals: 4-2 at home and a goaltender listed day to day
- 3 Buffalo Sabres: Tage Thompson and Jack Quinn at five goals, with Alex Lyon out
- 4 Free NHL Prediction: Washington Capitals vs Buffalo Sabres
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Washington Capitals vs Buffalo Sabres: Alex Tuch against his old team, with Buffalo last in the Atlantic 
Buffalo sits last of eight in the Atlantic Division with a 4-4-2 record. The Sabres have 10 points from ten games, the same total as Washington, who are fifth in the Metropolitan at 5-4-0.
The two teams meet on Saturday at Capital One Arena, puck drop 7pm ET, in the first of three meetings this season. The others come on November 19 and March 18.
The storyline is Alex Tuch. Buffalo sent him to Washington in a sign-and-trade in June, and he already has five goals in nine games for the Capitals, as many as anyone on either roster.
Both teams lost their last game. Washington was beaten 5-2 at home by Los Angeles on Tuesday after leading 2-0, and Buffalo lost 3-1 to Philadelphia on Wednesday. Neither team has played since, so both come in rested.
Recent form is identical. Each team is 2-3 over its last five games, though Buffalo’s five include two overtime results and a shootout.
The moneyline has Washington between 1.73 and 1.80 and Buffalo between 1.95 and 2.14, with the total at 6.5. We think the gap should be wider, because the home record is the clearest difference between these teams.
Washington Capitals: 4-2 at home and a goaltender listed day to day 
Washington is 4-2 on home ice. The wins include a 4-2 result against New Jersey on October 17 and a 5-4 win over Montreal on October 14, and the Capitals are 4-2 this season when they start as the moneyline favorite.
Tuesday’s loss is the cautionary tale. Ryan Leonard scored midway through the first period and Cole Hutson added a power-play goal for a 2-0 lead, then Artemi Panarin tied it with two seconds left in the period and the Kings scored three unanswered in the third.
Leonard leads the team with eight points, four goals and four assists, and Hutson has two goals from the blue line. Tom Wilson has two goals in nine games. Alex Ovechkin has one.
Logan Thompson started against the Kings and allowed five goals. He’s now listed day to day with a lower-body injury, and his status is the first thing we’d check before puck drop.
The injury list goes deeper on defense. Rasmus Sandin is out with a right knee injury and Vincent Desharnais with an abdominal problem, while Pierre-Luc Dubois and Justin Sourdif have been dealing with illness.
Washington’s games have gone over 6.5 goals five times this season. The Capitals have allowed 20 goals in their last five games, an average of 4.0.
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Buffalo Sabres: Tage Thompson and Jack Quinn at five goals, with Alex Lyon out 
Tage Thompson has five goals in ten games and Jack Quinn has five goals and five assists, a team-high 10 points on 28 shots. That’s where Buffalo’s offense starts and, in Wednesday’s 3-1 loss to Philadelphia, where it stopped.
The Sabres got two regulars back for that game. Rasmus Dahlin returned on defense, and Jason Zucker made his season debut.
Goaltending is the gap. Alex Lyon is out with an upper-body injury and isn’t expected back before October 30, so Buffalo makes this trip without him.
The Sabres’ run of close games tells two stories. They beat Florida 5-3 on October 12 and won 5-4 in overtime in Toronto on October 15, but they also lost 4-3 in a shootout and 4-3 in overtime in Montreal, a week apart.
Six of Buffalo’s games have gone over 6.5 goals. Jiri Kulich, Justin Danforth, Sam Carrick and Mattias Grzelcyk have all been on the injury report, and their availability for Saturday hasn’t been confirmed.
Buffalo has been an underdog six times this season and won twice. In the two games where the Sabres were priced at around 2.06 or longer, they lost both.
Probable lineup Washington Capitals: Not announced at time of publication (Logan Thompson day to day in goal)
Probable lineup Buffalo Sabres: Not announced at time of publication (Alex Lyon out in goal)
Free NHL Prediction: Washington Capitals vs Buffalo Sabres
Our prediction: Washington Capitals to win (moneyline, 1.78)
We’re backing Washington at home. The Capitals are 4-2 at Capital One Arena and 4-2 as a favorite, while Buffalo has lost both games it played at a price near Saturday’s number.
The doubts are in goal. Thompson is day to day and allowed five against the Kings, and Washington blew a 2-0 lead in that game. Buffalo’s goaltending is in worse shape with Lyon out until the end of the month, which is why we still side with the home team.
Tuch has five goals in nine games against a roster he knows well, Leonard has eight points, and Buffalo scored once against Philadelphia on Wednesday. At 1.78, Washington is our pick.
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