- 1 Phoenix Suns vs Golden State Warriors: a three-man injury list against an 83-point opener
- 2 Phoenix Suns: no Mark Williams, and 18.8% from three in Portland
- 3 Golden State Warriors: Curry at 23.5 points and a rookie with 13 rebounds
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: Phoenix Suns vs Golden State Warriors
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Phoenix Suns vs Golden State Warriors: a three-man injury list against an 83-point opener 
Golden State will play in Phoenix on Saturday without Jimmy Butler, Moses Moody or Kristaps Porzingis. Butler is still recovering from a torn ACL, and the Warriors arrive less than 24 hours after a 111-108 home loss to Memphis at Chase Center.
Phoenix has its own problem to explain. The Suns opened their season in Portland on Wednesday, fell behind during a 21-0 run, made 18.8% of their threes and scored 83 points while allowing 124. Saturday is their home opener at Mortgage Matchup Center, tip-off 10pm ET.
Both teams are winless. Golden State is 0-2 after a 127-105 defeat against the Lakers on opening night and Friday’s loss to the Grizzlies, while Phoenix is 0-1.
The rest gap favors the home team. The Suns haven’t played since Wednesday, and the Warriors are on the second night of a back-to-back after flying in from San Francisco.
Last season’s meetings went both ways. Golden State won the regular-season series 3-1, then Phoenix beat the Warriors in the play-in tournament in April to take the final playoff spot in the Western Conference.
The market can’t agree on how wide the gap is. The spread ranges from Phoenix -5.5 to -9.5 depending on the book, the Suns’ moneyline from 1.26 to 1.48, and the total from 219.5 to 226.5. We’d take the bigger number with the visitors.
Phoenix Suns: no Mark Williams, and 18.8% from three in Portland 
Mark Williams is out for an extended period after left shoulder surgery, and Oso Ighodaro is doubtful with a right oblique strain. That leaves the center minutes to Khaman Maluach and Duop Reath.
Devin Booker scored 23 points with four rebounds in Portland. Dillon Brooks added 10 and Jalen Green was the only other Sun in double figures, which is thin support for an offense that shot 35.7% from the field.
Luke Kennard is the player Phoenix wants back. He’s questionable with left knee tendinopathy after missing the opener, but he practiced with the team this week, and his shooting is the obvious fix for a 19% night from deep.
Head coach Jordan Ott pointed after the opener to missed shots that turned into transition baskets, and to foul trouble. Portland scored 124 on 47.9% shooting and hit 40.4% of its threes.
The defensive identity from last season is still a reason for optimism in Phoenix. The Suns ranked third in the league in opponent turnovers at 16.3 per game, though they were 29th in points in the paint at 43.1.
The recent head-to-head record at this arena doesn’t help them. Golden State has won 12 of its last 13 games here against Suns teams with a losing record, and Phoenix has lost its last five games against Western Conference opponents.
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Golden State Warriors: Curry at 23.5 points and a rookie with 13 rebounds 
Stephen Curry is averaging 23.5 points through two games, and he scored 24 with four assists against Memphis on Friday. The Warriors lost that game by three, after a 22-point defeat in Los Angeles to open the season.
Yaxel Lendeborg, the 11th pick in the 2026 draft out of Michigan and the Las Vegas Summer League MVP, had 18 points, 13 rebounds and six assists against the Grizzlies. He also picked up a technical foul after a run-in with Luka Doncic on opening night, and Draymond Green defended him publicly.
Brandin Podziemski scored 18 on Friday but is questionable with a back problem. Charles Bassey is also questionable, and with Porzingis out, the Warriors are short on size against a Phoenix team that will play big with Maluach.
The defense has been the weak spot. Golden State is allowing 119 points per game on 51.5% shooting, and opponents are making 38.8% of their threes, while the Warriors themselves are at 28.6% from deep.
We expect that 28.6% to climb. The Warriors finished second in the NBA in threes made last season at 15.7 per game, and Steve Kerr’s offense still runs through Curry and Green.
Ty Jerome scored 28 and Cameron Boozer added 25 points and 13 rebounds for Memphis on Friday. Golden State gave up 111 to that group and still had the game within three at the finish, which is the margin we care about for this pick.
Probable lineup Phoenix Suns: Devin Booker, Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, Khaman Maluach, fifth starter to be confirmed
Probable lineup Golden State Warriors: Stephen Curry, Brandin Podziemski (questionable), Yaxel Lendeborg, Draymond Green, fifth starter to be confirmed
Free NBA Prediction: Phoenix Suns vs Golden State Warriors
Our prediction: Golden State Warriors +9.5 (1.91)
We’re taking the points with Golden State. Phoenix scored 83 in its only game, shot 18.8% from three and is missing its starting center, and a team in that state shouldn’t be laying close to ten points to anyone with Curry on the floor.
The fatigue argument is real, and it’s the main thing against us. The Warriors played Friday night, and Phoenix is fresh after three days off, but Golden State still lost to Memphis by only three on Friday with Curry, Lendeborg and Podziemski all scoring 18 or more.
The Warriors have won 12 of their last 13 games in this arena against losing Suns teams. At +9.5 we’d back them; if your book only offers +5.5, we’d pass rather than chase the smaller number.
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