- 1 Houston Texans vs New York Giants: a 2-4 team laying 10.5 points against the NFC East leaders
- 2 Houston Texans: C.J. Stroud has thrown one interception in six games
- 3 New York Giants: three straight games of 27 points, and a run defence giving up five yards a carry
- 4 Free NFL Prediction: Houston Texans vs New York Giants
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
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Houston Texans vs New York Giants: a 2-4 team laying 10.5 points against the NFC East leaders 
Houston lost their first four games of the season. They’ve won the two since, both away from home: first at Tennessee, where they covered as 6.5-point favourites, then 34-31 against Jacksonville at Wembley, settled by Ka’imi Fairbairn’s 49-yard field goal as time expired.
That run is the reason a 2-4 team is laying 10.5 points on Sunday against a New York side sitting at 3-2-1 and top of the NFC East. The market has decided that Houston’s first month was misleading, and that the Giants’ record flatters a roster now on its third starting quarterback of the season.
Jaxson Dart is on injured reserve. Jameis Winston replaced him, and J.J. McCarthy, acquired from Minnesota in September, took over last week in a 34-27 home defeat to New Orleans. The Giants trailed 34-10 before McCarthy led a fourth-quarter rally, finishing 11 of 21 for 243 yards with a touchdown and an interception.
Kickoff is at 1:00pm ET, and it’s the Texans’ first home game in three weeks. Both teams go into a bye in Week 8, so neither has a reason to hold anything back. History sits with the visitors: Houston are 1-5 all-time against the Giants, and their only win came 16-14 in 2002, the franchise’s first season.
The spread is where I think this game gets interesting. The Giants are 4-2 against the spread and have scored at least 27 points in each of their last three games. They’ve also allowed 24 or more in each of those three, which is why the total has settled between 42.5 and 43.5 depending on the book.
Ten experts polled by the Giants’ own beat writers all picked Houston, and none of their projected margins went beyond 13 points. Most of them landed on a one-score game, which already tells us something about how far 10.5 points stretches.
Houston Texans: C.J. Stroud has thrown one interception in six games 
Stroud’s season line reads 143 of 219 for 1,714 yards, nine touchdowns and one interception. Only Matthew Stafford had more passing yards going into the week, and that single interception, taken by Travis Hunter in the end zone in London, was the first he’d thrown all season.
London earned him AFC Offensive Player of the Week honours: 24 of 34, 312 yards, three touchdowns. Foster Moreau caught two of them, from six yards and one yard, and Jaylin Noel added a 13-yarder in the third quarter that put Houston 24-14 up.
The receiving group changed on October 11, when Marvin Harrison Jr. arrived in a trade from Arizona. He caught three passes for 34 yards on his debut. Jayden Higgins is on injured reserve, and Tank Dell is listed as questionable, so Harrison’s snap count should only grow from here.
Houston’s defence is better against the run than the record suggests. Opponents average 3.43 yards per carry, third-best in the league, and the Texans have 18 sacks. Through the air they’re softer, allowing 246 passing yards per game and an opponent passer rating of 96.6.
The last time Houston played at home, Dallas won 34-30 and CeeDee Lamb finished with 17 receptions, including the game-winning touchdown. Jalen Pitre is doubtful and Reed Blankenship questionable this week, so the secondary that let that happen could be thinner still on Sunday.
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New York Giants: three straight games of 27 points, and a run defence giving up five yards a carry 
John Harbaugh’s team leaks on the ground. The Giants allow 135.5 rushing yards per game, 29th in the league, and 5.05 yards per carry, with only Carolina worse. That’s the clearest route for Houston, even if Woody Marks only managed 56 yards on 15 carries in London.
Against the pass they’re much tighter. New York allow 190.2 passing yards per game, fifth-fewest in the NFL, and they’ve forced nine turnovers, six of them interceptions. The pass rush is the weak link, with eight sacks all season despite Abdul Carter and Kayvon Thibodeaux on the edges, and Brian Burns is on injured reserve.
Offensively, the scoring has survived the quarterback changes. Tyrone Tracy Jr. scored twice against New Orleans, once on the ground and once on a 17-yard catch, and Isaiah Likely, who followed Harbaugh from Baltimore, caught McCarthy’s 24-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter. Malik Nabers is still the first read in this passing game.
McCarthy brings something Winston didn’t: speed. He’s a genuine runner whose accuracy comes and goes, and that matched what we saw against the Saints, where 21 attempts produced 243 yards through a mix of big gains and misses. Winston had thrown five interceptions in five games before losing the job.
The injury list is long. Jermaine Eluemunor, Tremaine Edmunds, Greg Newsome II, Tyler Nubin, Colton Hood, Theo Johnson and Darnell Mooney are all questionable, and the cornerback room already has four players on injured reserve, Paulson Adebo among them.
Probable lineup Houston Texans: QB C.J. Stroud; RB Woody Marks; WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Jaylin Noel; TE Foster Moreau; LT Aireontae Ersery (Tank Dell questionable, Jalen Pitre doubtful)
Probable lineup New York Giants: QB J.J. McCarthy; RB Tyrone Tracy Jr., Cam Skattebo; WR Malik Nabers, Malachi Fields; TE Isaiah Likely; OL Andrew Thomas, Jon Runyan Jr., Bryan Hudson, Francis Mauigoa, Jermaine Eluemunor (questionable)
Free NFL Prediction: Houston Texans vs New York Giants
Our prediction: New York Giants +10.5 (1.87)
Houston’s two wins came by a field goal at Wembley and a cover at Tennessee, and in their last home game they gave up 34 points to Dallas. Nothing in that profile suggests a team that beats a side going 4-2 against the spread by two scores.
The Giants’ run defence is a real weakness, and Houston could lean on it to shorten the game. But a double-digit margin needs a secondary that may be without Pitre to keep Nabers and Likely quiet, against an offence that has reached 27 points three weeks running.
I expect Houston to win, probably by around a touchdown. The moneyline at 1.18 is too short to be worth backing, so the value sits with the visitors and the points: Giants +10.5, at 1.87.
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