- 1 Utah Jazz vs New Orleans Pelicans: the league’s worst defense from last season hosts a 120-point offense
- 2 Utah Jazz: Keyonte George on 7-of-12, and 18 turnovers around him
- 3 New Orleans Pelicans: 34 of 37 at the line and a fourth-quarter lead that slipped
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: Utah Jazz vs New Orleans Pelicans
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Utah Jazz vs New Orleans Pelicans: the league’s worst defense from last season hosts a 120-point offense 
Utah allowed 126.0 points per game last season, the most in the NBA, and let opponents shoot 49.4% from the field. Twenty-eight of the Jazz’s 41 home games went over the total in 2025-26, against 13 that stayed under.
The first game of this season didn’t change the picture much. Memphis scored 123 on Wednesday, grabbed 55 rebounds and forced 18 Utah turnovers in a 20-point win, with Ty Jerome putting up 45 of those points.
New Orleans arrives off a 123-120 loss in Indiana. The Pelicans led in the fourth quarter before Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam closed it out, and Dejounte Murray (23 points) and Zion Williamson (22) both cleared 20.
Tip-off at the Delta Center is 9:30pm ET. The spread has moved toward New Orleans during the week: Utah opened as a 5.5-point favorite and is now -2.5, while the total sits at 238.5.
We’re less interested in who wins than in how many points get scored. The Jazz were 30th in points allowed and 30th in assists allowed last season, the Pelicans gave up 120.0 per game, 24th, and the over has landed in six of the last seven meetings between them.
Both teams finished near the bottom of the West a year ago. Utah went 22-60 and New Orleans 26-56, and both start this season 0-1.
Utah Jazz: Keyonte George on 7-of-12, and 18 turnovers around him 
Keyonte George scored 22 on 7-of-12 shooting in 29 minutes against Memphis, with 5 assists. He signed a five-year, $157.5 million extension in September, and Utah’s offense goes through him and No. 2 pick Darryn Peterson.
The rest of the box score was less tidy. The Jazz shot 46.7% from the field and 11-of-32 from three, but they turned it over 18 times and pulled down only 38 rebounds, five of them offensive.
The frontcourt is bigger than last season’s. Lauri Markkanen, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Jaxson Hayes give Utah size across the front line, and that’s the group that has to slow Williamson’s drives to the rim. Tony Bradley’s status in the second unit is still uncertain.
Last season’s offense wasn’t the problem. Utah averaged 117.6 points and ranked second in the league in assists with 29.6 per game, numbers that came alongside the worst defensive record in the NBA.
The Jazz went 22-19 against the spread at home last season, and the over is 8-1 in their last nine games as a home favorite. They’re favored again on Friday.
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New Orleans Pelicans: 34 of 37 at the line and a fourth-quarter lead that slipped 
The Pelicans went to the free-throw line 37 times in Indiana and made 34. That’s what kept them in a game where they shot 38-of-89 from the field and let the Pacers hit 52.2%.
Murray was the most efficient scorer, 9-of-18 for 23 points with 7 assists in 34 minutes. Williamson added 22, and Yves Missi had 14 rebounds as New Orleans won the glass 49-43, with 14 offensive boards.
Herb Jones played limited minutes in the opener. He’s New Orleans’ best perimeter defender, and if his workload stays down, George and Peterson will see easier matchups than the Pelicans would like.
Jusuf Nurkic is out, which thins the center rotation behind Missi. The Pelicans forced 13 turnovers and had 11 steals against Indiana, and they still reached 120 points on a night when they shot 42.7%.
On the road last season, New Orleans went 19-22 against the spread with 20 overs and 21 unders. The over has hit in each of the Pelicans’ last four games, including Wednesday’s 243-point finish in Indiana.
Probable lineup Utah Jazz: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup New Orleans Pelicans: Not announced at time of publication
Free NBA Prediction: Utah Jazz vs New Orleans Pelicans
Our prediction: Over 238.5 points (1.91)
We’re taking the over. Utah’s defense was the worst in the league last season and started this one by conceding 123, and New Orleans scored 120 in its opener while shooting only 42.7%.
The line is high, and it’s the honest risk here: two openers that finished at 226 and 243 combined points. We think the Pelicans’ free-throw volume and Utah’s turnover habit push this one toward the upper end, and the head-to-head trend points the same way.
Six of the last seven meetings went over, and the over is 8-1 in Utah’s last nine as a home favorite. With Herb Jones limited and Nurkic out, neither team has the defensive pieces to drag the pace down.
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