- 1 Charlotte Hornets vs Atlanta Hawks: a home opener without Knueppel or White, against a team that scored 132 in Orlando
- 2 Charlotte Hornets: six opening-night wins in a row and a starting five that’s barely met
- 3 Atlanta Hawks: Alexander-Walker’s 31 and five scorers in double figures
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: Charlotte Hornets vs Atlanta Hawks
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Charlotte Hornets vs Atlanta Hawks: a home opener without Knueppel or White, against a team that scored 132 in Orlando 
Kon Knueppel won’t play in the Hornets’ home opener on Friday. The hamstring strain that kept him out of the preseason and the season opener has ruled him out again, and Coby White, Grant Williams and Kylan Boswell are on the same list. Charles Lee will send out a rotation built almost entirely from players who arrived this summer.
That rotation won its first game anyway. Charlotte beat Brooklyn 110-103 at Barclays Center on Wednesday, the franchise’s sixth straight opening-night win, with Grayson Allen scoring 21 off the bench and Naz Reid putting up 20 points and 11 rebounds on debut.
Atlanta also arrives at 1-0. The Hawks won 132-125 in Orlando, led by 31 points from Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and they come to Spectrum Center as 2.5-point favourites for a 7pm ET tip-off. The moneyline sits around 1.70 for Atlanta and 2.20 for Charlotte, and the total opened at 226.5 before drifting down to 225.5.
Last season’s series went to Charlotte, three wins to one. The Hornets won 133-126 on 19 December, 126-119 on 8 February and 110-107 four days later, with Atlanta’s only win a 113-110 game in November. Charlotte has also covered as an underdog of 3.5 in six of the last seven meetings.
Both teams played on Wednesday and neither is on a back-to-back. The difference between them on Friday is less about rest than about who is available, and Atlanta’s injuries (rookie centre Henri Veesaar for the season, Mouhamed Gueye until November) affect the bench far less than Charlotte’s affect the starting group.
Charlotte Hornets: six opening-night wins in a row and a starting five that’s barely met 
To understand this roster it helps to start with what left. LaMelo Ball went to Minnesota in June in a deal that brought Reid and a 2033 first-round pick back, Miles Bridges went to Phoenix, and Dennis Schroder arrived from Cleveland in August for Tre Mann. Allen and Royce O’Neale came over from the Suns.
Lee started Schroder, Sion James, Brandon Miller, Reid and Moussa Diabate in Brooklyn. Schroder scored 19 with six assists, eight of his points in the fourth quarter, and Diabate added 17 points, eight rebounds and five steals on 7-of-11. The Hornets led 102-92 with about five minutes left and held on.
Miller’s night was less tidy. He scored 18 but shot 7-of-21 and 3-of-14 from three, with 12 of his points in the first quarter. As a team Charlotte made 15 of 48 threes, a 31% rate that a better defence than Brooklyn’s will punish.
The absences go deeper than one game. Knueppel averaged 18.5 points as a rookie last season, White has a calf strain with no timeline, and Williams is out with a hamstring. Lee has a group that works hard defensively, as Diabate’s five steals show, but it’s short on shot creation beyond Schroder and Miller.
There’s a betting trend in Charlotte’s favour: the Hornets were 49-32-1 against the spread last season and are 5-1 ATS in their last six as a home underdog. The Under has also landed in four of their last four games.
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Atlanta Hawks: Alexander-Walker’s 31 and five scorers in double figures 
Quin Snyder kept his starting five intact for the opener. CJ McCollum, Alexander-Walker, Dyson Daniels, Jalen Johnson and Onyeka Okongwu started in Orlando, with summer addition Lu Dort coming off the bench, and the continuity showed.
Alexander-Walker scored 31 on 8-of-15 shooting, with five threes, and hit the three with 1:27 left that sealed the win. Johnson and Daniels added 20 each, McCollum scored 19 on 7-of-9, and Aaron Wiggins put up 16 off the bench. The Hawks shot 49% and won the second quarter 44-29 to lead 72-62 at halftime.
Atlanta also attacked the basket well. They took 36 free throws, scored 60 points in the paint and turned Orlando’s 20 turnovers into 24 points. That’s the profile of a team running familiar sets, with the same five starters as last season.
The concerns are at the back of the roster. Rookie Kingston Flemings, the No. 8 pick, went scoreless in 15 minutes, Dort struggled on debut, and Veesaar’s torn ACL thins the frontcourt behind Okongwu. Atlanta also gave up 125 points to a Magic team that was without several rotation players.
The Hawks finished last season 46-36 and have covered four straight as road favourites. The Over has landed in four of their last five games.
Probable lineup Charlotte Hornets: Dennis Schroder, Sion James, Brandon Miller, Naz Reid, Moussa Diabate
Probable lineup Atlanta Hawks: CJ McCollum, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Dyson Daniels, Jalen Johnson, Onyeka Okongwu
Free NBA Prediction: Charlotte Hornets vs Atlanta Hawks
Our prediction: Atlanta Hawks -2.5 at 1.89
The Hornets’ 3-1 record against Atlanta last season was built with Ball, Knueppel and Bridges available. None of the three plays on Friday, and the replacement group shot 31% from three against a Brooklyn team that had just lost its opener at home.
Atlanta brings a settled starting five, five players in double figures from its opener and an offence that got to the line 36 times in Orlando. The Hornets’ home-underdog record is the honest argument for the other side, and Diabate’s activity can make the game uncomfortable for a while.
I’ll go with the Hawks -2.5 at 1.89. The spread only asks Atlanta to win by three, and the gap in available shot creators between these two rosters points to a margin larger than that.
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