- 1 Calgary Flames vs Minnesota Wild: three straight home wins over Minnesota, and a goalie at .834
- 2 Calgary Flames: 7.1% shooting, last in the NHL, and Backlund doubtful
- 3 Minnesota Wild: Kaprizov leads the NHL with 11 goals, Wallstedt at .915
- 4 Free NHL Prediction: Calgary Flames vs Minnesota Wild
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Calgary Flames vs Minnesota Wild: three straight home wins over Minnesota, and a goalie at .834 
Calgary has beaten Minnesota in each of the last three meetings at the Saddledome and won five of the last seven overall. It’s the one piece of history that favors the Flames on Thursday, and it’s up against nearly every number from the current season.
The most recent meeting, on 29 January, finished 4-1 to Minnesota, though Calgary’s run of home wins in this matchup is still intact.
The Flames are 2-6-0, with 2.13 goals scored per game (31st in the league) and 4.63 allowed (also 31st). Minnesota arrives at 6-2-2 with the sixth-best goals-against rate in the NHL at 2.5 per game and the fourth-best power play at 29.0%. Puck drop is 9pm ET.
Calgary’s last game was its best of the season. The Flames beat the defending champions, Carolina, 3-2 on Sunday, ending the Hurricanes’ seven-game winning streak with a Yegor Sharangovich goal at 15:32 of the third period. They’ve had three days off since.
The Wild have had one. They lost 4-3 in overtime in Edmonton on Tuesday, the opening game of a five-game road trip, after Evan Bouchard scored on a four-on-three with 1:28 left. That’s the rest gap Calgary will hope to exploit.
Minnesota is priced around 1.49 to win, Calgary around 2.70. The total sits at 5.5, and the Wild have gone under in seven of their 10 games so far.
Calgary Flames: 7.1% shooting, last in the NHL, and Backlund doubtful 
Shot volume isn’t what’s holding Calgary back. The Flames average 30.0 shots per game, sixth in the league. They convert 7.1% of them, the lowest rate in the NHL, and that alone explains most of the 2.13 goals per game.
The scoring is spread thin. Morgan Frost leads the team with three goals and five points, Matt Coronato has two goals and five points, and Joel Farabee has five assists. No Calgary player has more than five points through eight games.
Captain Mikael Backlund missed practice with an upper-body injury and is uncertain for Thursday. If he can’t play, Ben Jones could make his Flames debut. Losing the captain would take a veteran center out of a lineup that’s already struggling to keep the puck out.
The goaltending decision is open. Dustin Wolf has started more often but is 1-4-0 with a 4.85 goals-against average and .834 save percentage. Devin Cooley made 34 saves to beat Carolina and sits at 1-2-0 and .868. Head coach Ryan Huska has asked the team to limit rush chances and get pucks deep.
Discipline is another weakness. Calgary averages 13.6 penalty minutes per game, the most in the league, and that’s a dangerous habit against a Minnesota power play converting 29.0% of the time. The Flames’ penalty kill is at 81.5%, close to league average, but it’s being asked to work far too often.
no renewal
Free for 2 weeks.
Minnesota Wild: Kaprizov leads the NHL with 11 goals, Wallstedt at .915 
Kirill Kaprizov scored his league-leading 11th goal in Edmonton and has 17 points in 10 games. Only one start in Wild history has produced more points through 10 games: his own 21 in 2024-25. Quinn Hughes has 13 points, 11 of them assists.
The top line of Kaprizov, Matt Boldy and Joel Eriksson Ek does a lot of the work. Boldy has five goals and nine points, Eriksson Ek seven points. Before Tuesday, that line had scored 16 of the team’s goals while the rest of the roster had 12. Head coach John Hynes has praised the trio’s defensive work as much as its scoring.
Jesper Wallstedt is the main difference between the two teams. He’s 6-1-2 with a 2.20 goals-against average and a .915 save percentage in nine starts, and he made 28 saves in Edmonton. Calvin Pickard has played once, a loss, at .800.
Minnesota’s defense has slipped lately: the Wild have allowed four or more goals in three of their last four games, and they’re 2-2-2 on the road. The schedule doesn’t help either, with one day of rest against Calgary’s three.
Minnesota allows 26.1 shots per game, 11th in the NHL, which should blunt Calgary’s one real strength. A team shooting 7.1% that’s also facing a .915 goalie needs a lot of volume to score three, and the Wild don’t usually give that up. Minnesota’s own shooting rate is 10.4%, 23rd in the league, so its 3.1 goals a game aren’t the product of hot finishing.
Probable lineup Calgary Flames: Not announced at time of publication (goalie: Dustin Wolf or Devin Cooley)
Probable lineup Minnesota Wild: Not announced at time of publication (projected goalie: Jesper Wallstedt)
Free NHL Prediction: Calgary Flames vs Minnesota Wild
Our prediction: Minnesota Wild to win (1.49)
We’re backing Minnesota. The Wild are better in goal by a wide margin, .915 against .834 or .868, and they score more than a goal per game more than Calgary while allowing about two fewer. Their power play also lines up against the most penalized team in the league.
The rest gap and Calgary’s recent home record against Minnesota are the arguments for the Flames, and we don’t dismiss them. Three days off after a win over the champions is a decent setup. It doesn’t fix a 7.1% shooting rate or a team allowing 4.63 goals a night.
With Backlund doubtful and no clear answer in net, we’d expect Kaprizov’s line and Wallstedt to decide this. Minnesota to win at 1.49.
in your pocket.
Real-time notifications & alerts
_________
About our free predictions
- What we publish on MathOdds are analyses, nothing more. We share a view, a reading of the moment, but never a guarantee. Sport remains what it is: unpredictable. A red card, an injury, a last-minute goal, and the script changes completely.
- Let’s be clear: there is no such thing as a risk-free bet. Even when it looks “obvious”, nothing ever is. And yes, that means you can lose. It’s even inevitable at some point.
- The smartest approach is to stay reasonable. Bet small, set a budget and stick to it. Never use money you need to live on. And above all: don’t chase your losses: that rarely ends well.
- A bet should remain a game, not a job or a source of income. If it starts taking up too much space in your daily life, causes stress or frustration, take a break. And if needed, talk to a support organisation: that’s what they’re there for.
- Ultimately, responsibility lies with you. Reading our content means accepting that risk exists and will never disappear, no matter how good the analysis.
- Essential reminder: gambling is prohibited for minors and must comply with the laws of your country. Need help? Visit begambleaware.org.
No commitment from us
Our predictions carry no contractual value. They have no legal standing. In short: you cannot rely on them to claim anything if a bet doesn’t come through.
Information changes
A prediction is always based on what we know at the time of writing. But between publication and kick-off, a lineup can change, a player picks up an injury, the weather turns, and the analysis can quickly be outdated. We cannot be held responsible for that.
Your responsibility
Before placing a bet, simply check that gambling is legal in your country. If it isn’t, that’s your responsibility, not ours.
Responsible gambling
We can’t say it enough: gamble responsibly. If you’re struggling to stay in control, don’t wait to seek help.
Legal age
MathOdds content is intended for adults only. By browsing here, you confirm you meet the legal age requirement for gambling in your jurisdiction.
About visuals
The images and logos of Calgary Flames and Minnesota Wild on MathOdds are used solely to illustrate our articles. They do not imply any official affiliation with a federation or sports organisation, and we claim no rights over them. Those rights belong to their original owners. If any visual raises a concern, contact us and it will be removed without delay.
Leave a Reply