- 1 Indiana Pacers vs Dallas Mavericks: Haliburton is back, and Dallas went 0 for 14 from three in one quarter
- 2 Indiana Pacers: five players with 16 or more, Siakam with 12 in the fourth
- 3 Dallas Mavericks: Flagg scored 32, the rest of the offense disappeared for a quarter
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: Indiana Pacers vs Dallas Mavericks
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Indiana Pacers vs Dallas Mavericks: Haliburton is back, and Dallas went 0 for 14 from three in one quarter 
Tyrese Haliburton’s first NBA game in 478 days finished with 23 points, 12 assists and a win. The Pacers came from 10 down at halftime in New Orleans on Wednesday, beat the Pelicans 123-120, and Haliburton scored on consecutive possessions to put them ahead 121-118 in the final minute.
Dallas spent the same night in Houston and was down 32 at the break. The Mavericks went 4 of 19 from the field in the second quarter and missed all 14 of their three-point attempts in that period. The Rockets won 128-110.
The two teams meet on Friday at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, tip-off 7pm ET. Indiana is 1-0, Dallas 0-1, and both are coming off seasons they’d rather forget: the Pacers finished 19-63 and 14th in the East, the Mavericks 26-56 and 12th in the West.
Neither side gets extra rest. Both played on Wednesday night and both have one day off before Friday, so the schedule doesn’t tilt this one in either direction.
The prices favor Indiana clearly. The Pacers sit around 1.56 to win, Dallas around 2.70. A projection we reviewed has the Pacers winning 120-110, a 10-point margin.
We think the gap is justified, and it rests on more than one result. Indiana’s top six all contributed in New Orleans. Dallas had one player carrying the scoring and a long stretch where nothing at all went in.
Indiana Pacers: five players with 16 or more, Siakam with 12 in the fourth 
Pascal Siakam led Indiana with 30 points and scored 12 of them in the fourth quarter. Obi Toppin added 20, Andrew Nembhard had 18, and Ivica Zubac finished with 16 points and 14 rebounds. Five Pacers scored at least 16.
Zubac matters more than the box score suggests. He played only five games for Indiana last season after arriving by trade, so Wednesday was close to a first proper look at him alongside Haliburton. He also blocked a Zion Williamson attempt in the first half.
The comeback came from Haliburton. With New Orleans up 101-93, he scored eight of Indiana’s ten points in a 90-second spell. A 15-3 run followed and the Pacers led 108-104. Williamson tied it at 116, then Haliburton took over again.
The second quarter is the warning sign. Indiana led 38-31 after 12 minutes on 59% shooting, then scored 18 points to New Orleans’ 35 and shot 33% in the second period. Last season’s offense ranked 28th in the league, and quarters like that one are how it got there.
Johnny Furphy is out with a knee injury. Jarace Walker, T.J. McConnell and Aaron Nesmith were all listed as game-time decisions before the opener. Walker averaged 14.4 points and 6.8 rebounds over his last 22 games of 2025-26, so his availability would add depth to a rotation that already looked deeper than Dallas’s.
no renewal
Free for 2 weeks.
Dallas Mavericks: Flagg scored 32, the rest of the offense disappeared for a quarter 
Cooper Flagg’s 32 points in Houston were the most ever scored by a teenager in a season opener. It was the one positive in an 18-point defeat, and it wasn’t enough to keep the game competitive after halftime.
Kyrie Irving played his first regular-season game since tearing his ACL and scored 15 points in 24 minutes. Marcus Sasser came off the bench for 17 and hit four threes in his Dallas debut. Beyond those three, the scoring thinned out quickly.
The starting group was Irving, Max Christie, Flagg, P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford. Dallas shot 51% from the field overall and 29% from three, so the damage came from outside: the Mavericks scored well enough inside the arc and struggled badly beyond it.
Irving missed all of last season with the ACL tear, which goes some way to explaining a 26-win campaign. His 24 minutes in Houston were on the low side for a starting guard, and we’d expect his playing time to stay limited two nights later rather than jump straight back to a full load.
There’s a new structure around the team. Masai Ujiri now runs basketball operations, Dusty May has taken over as head coach after winning a national championship at Michigan, and Zaccharie Risacher arrived from Atlanta. The Mavericks went 1-3 in preseason.
Several big men were game-time decisions before the opener: Dereck Lively II and Santi Aldama among them, along with Tarik Biberovic and Jett Howard. Against Zubac on the glass, Dallas needs Gafford and Lively both available, and that hasn’t been confirmed.
Probable lineup Indiana Pacers: Tyrese Haliburton, Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, Pascal Siakam, Ivica Zubac
Probable lineup Dallas Mavericks: Kyrie Irving, Max Christie, Cooper Flagg, P.J. Washington, Daniel Gafford
Free NBA Prediction: Indiana Pacers vs Dallas Mavericks
Our prediction: Indiana Pacers to win (1.56)
We’re siding with Indiana at home. The Pacers had five players score 16 or more on Wednesday, and they won a game on the road after trailing by 10 at the half. Dallas lost by 18 and trailed by 32 at one stage.
Flagg is the reason we don’t go further with a spread. He can score 30 on his own, and Irving should get sharper with minutes. If Dallas avoids another quarter like the second one in Houston, this stays close for longer than the projection suggests.
We’d still expect Indiana’s balance, with Haliburton running the offense and Zubac controlling the paint, to decide it. At 1.56, the Pacers moneyline is the cleanest way to back that view.
in your pocket.
Real-time notifications & alerts
_________
About our free predictions
- What we publish on MathOdds are analyses, nothing more. We share a view, a reading of the moment, but never a guarantee. Sport remains what it is: unpredictable. A red card, an injury, a last-minute goal, and the script changes completely.
- Let’s be clear: there is no such thing as a risk-free bet. Even when it looks “obvious”, nothing ever is. And yes, that means you can lose. It’s even inevitable at some point.
- The smartest approach is to stay reasonable. Bet small, set a budget and stick to it. Never use money you need to live on. And above all: don’t chase your losses: that rarely ends well.
- A bet should remain a game, not a job or a source of income. If it starts taking up too much space in your daily life, causes stress or frustration, take a break. And if needed, talk to a support organisation: that’s what they’re there for.
- Ultimately, responsibility lies with you. Reading our content means accepting that risk exists and will never disappear, no matter how good the analysis.
- Essential reminder: gambling is prohibited for minors and must comply with the laws of your country. Need help? Visit begambleaware.org.
No commitment from us
Our predictions carry no contractual value. They have no legal standing. In short: you cannot rely on them to claim anything if a bet doesn’t come through.
Information changes
A prediction is always based on what we know at the time of writing. But between publication and kick-off, a lineup can change, a player picks up an injury, the weather turns, and the analysis can quickly be outdated. We cannot be held responsible for that.
Your responsibility
Before placing a bet, simply check that gambling is legal in your country. If it isn’t, that’s your responsibility, not ours.
Responsible gambling
We can’t say it enough: gamble responsibly. If you’re struggling to stay in control, don’t wait to seek help.
Legal age
MathOdds content is intended for adults only. By browsing here, you confirm you meet the legal age requirement for gambling in your jurisdiction.
About visuals
The images and logos of Indiana Pacers and Dallas Mavericks on MathOdds are used solely to illustrate our articles. They do not imply any official affiliation with a federation or sports organisation, and we claim no rights over them. Those rights belong to their original owners. If any visual raises a concern, contact us and it will be removed without delay.
Leave a Reply