- 1 Toulouse vs Troyes: a fixture Troyes have never won in the top flight
- 2 Toulouse: Tengstedt has scored in four straight, but the home form lags
- 3 Troyes: five defeats in a row and 16 goals conceded
- 4 Free Ligue 1 Prediction: Toulouse vs Troyes
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Toulouse vs Troyes: a fixture Troyes have never won in the top flight 
Troyes have never won a top-flight match in Toulouse. Toulouse are unbeaten in 13 meetings with them in all competitions, and the recent meetings include a 6-1 home win in July 2022 and a 4-1 in February 2023.
The fixture was originally set for Saturday and has been moved to Sunday 25 October, kick-off 4:15pm UK time, at the Stadium de Toulouse. It’s the eighth round of Ligue 1, and the two sides arrive in very different moods.
Toulouse are 11th on nine points (W2 D3 L2) and haven’t lost in four league games. They won 3-0 at Le Mans last time out, their first clean sheet of the season. The bookmakers have them at around 1.61 to win, with the draw at 4.20 and Troyes at 4.75.
Troyes are 17th on four points, with one win, one draw and five defeats. They’ve lost five in a row, conceded 15 goals in that run and sit two points behind Le Mans in 16th. Only Le Havre, on two points, are below them.
I’m not convinced a side whose top scorer has one league goal can turn that around at a ground where they’ve never won. Troyes have scored five times in seven games, and no one in the squad has more than one.
Toulouse: Tengstedt has scored in four straight, but the home form lags 
Casper Tengstedt has five league goals, two of them penalties, and he’s scored in each of Toulouse’s last four games. That run began with the 2-2 at Lorient and has continued through the 3-2 win over Le Havre, the 2-2 at Monaco and the 3-0 at Le Mans.
The odd part of Jens Berthel Askou’s season is where the points have come from. Toulouse are unbeaten away (W1 D3), with nine goals scored on the road. At home they’ve won once in three, a 3-2 against Le Havre, and lost 2-0 to Lyon and 1-0 to Lille.
They failed to score in two of those three home games. Lyon and Lille, though, are a different calibre of visitor from a Troyes side that has lost 2-0 at Angers and 2-0 at Lille in its last two trips.
Behind Tengstedt, the goals are spread. Jacen Russell-Rowe and Thomas Jørgensen have two each, with Christ Tapé, Aron Dønnum and Sion Oppong on one apiece.
Abu Francis is a doubt with a hamstring problem, and Oppong and Azizi are also listed as uncertain. Guillaume Restes should start in goal, with Messali and Tapé at full-back either side of McKenzie and Nicolaisen.
Toulouse have now scored in each of their last four league games, and they’ve scored 12 in total, more than double Troyes’ tally.
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Troyes: five defeats in a row and 16 goals conceded 
The season started well enough for Stéphane Dumont’s side. A 0-0 at home to Paris FC was followed by a 2-1 win at Lorient, and for two weeks Troyes held their own.
Then Strasbourg won 6-2 at the Stade de l’Aube. Troyes lost 2-0 at Lille, 2-0 at Angers, 2-0 at home to Marseille and 3-1 at home to Lens. The goals-against column now reads 16, the highest in the division.
The home record is worse than the away one. Troyes have taken one point from four games at the Aube and conceded 11 there. Away from home they’ve let in five in three.
Scoring is the larger worry. Mille, Le Douaron, Maronnier and Ripart (from the spot) have one goal each, and Timothée Nkada got his first of the season in the 3-1 loss to Lens. Five league goals in seven games won’t trouble many defences. Ripart is expected to lead the line, with Mille, Le Douaron and Nkada behind him.
The absences pile up too. Boura, Titi and Koné are listed out, and Gozzi is doubtful after going off against Lens. There’s some disagreement over Ouzenadji’s fitness, which is why Noah Donkor could come in at left-back.
Troyes are three points behind Angers and Strasbourg. A sixth straight league defeat would leave them relying on Le Havre, bottom on two points, to stay out of the last two places.
Probable lineup Toulouse: Restes; Messali, McKenzie, Nicolaisen, Tapé; Casseres, Schmidt; Dønnum, Jørgensen, Tengstedt; Russell-Rowe
Probable lineup Troyes: Beach; Maronnier, Monfray, Diaz, Ouzenadji; Diop, Karim; Mille, Le Douaron, Nkada; Ripart
Free Ligue 1 Prediction: Toulouse vs Troyes
Our prediction: Toulouse to win (odds 1.61)
Toulouse’s home form is the one thing that gives me pause. One win from three at the Stadium isn’t what a side unbeaten in four should have, and losing to Lyon and Lille in front of their own fans shows they can struggle when they’re asked to break a team down.
But Troyes have lost five straight, conceded 15 goals in that spell and scored five all season. Toulouse have a striker who has scored in four consecutive games, 13 meetings without defeat against this opponent, and they’ve just won 3-0 away at Le Mans.
I’d back Toulouse to win at 1.61. A Troyes side with no player on more than one goal and the worst defence in the league is the right opponent for Askou’s side to fix their home record.
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