- 1 Hull City vs Brentford: two red cards and a hole in Keith Andrews’ midfield
- 2 Hull City: two goals conceded at home, five games without a win
- 3 Brentford: unbeaten away, but no away win since February
- 4 Free Premier League Prediction: Hull City vs Brentford
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Hull City vs Brentford: two red cards and a hole in Keith Andrews’ midfield 
Brentford finished their 2-1 defeat to Liverpool last weekend with nine men, and both players who walked were central midfielders. Vitaly Janelt and Yegor Yarmoliuk are suspended for Sunday’s trip to the MKM Stadium, which leaves Keith Andrews without the pair who normally sit in front of his back four.
That defeat was Brentford’s first of the season. They’re sixth on 10 points from seven games (W2 D4 L1), with 13 goals scored and eight conceded. Hull are three places and one point behind them in ninth, on nine points, with eight scored and seven let in.
The fixture was moved from Saturday to Sunday for television, and kick-off is now 2pm UK time, live on Sky Sports. Robert Jones is the referee.
This is the first time the two clubs have met in the Premier League. The last meeting came in the Championship in February 2020, when Brentford won 5-1 at Hull and Saïd Benrahma scored a hat-trick. Keane Lewis-Potter played for Hull that day. He’s now on the other side and has two league goals this season.
The wider history is closer than that scoreline suggests. Across nine meetings Hull have won four, Brentford three, with two draws. I think the head-to-head counts for less than the two men missing from Brentford’s engine room.
Hull City: two goals conceded at home, five games without a win 
Hull came up through the play-offs in May, beating Middlesbrough 1-0 at Wembley, and opened their first top-flight season in nine years by beating Manchester United 2-0 at home. They haven’t won since, in five games, including a 1-0 EFL Cup exit at Sunderland.
The home record is what keeps them in the top half. Hull haven’t lost at the MKM this season, and they’ve conceded two league goals there, the second-best home defence in the division behind Brighton. Those two came in the 2-2 draw with Everton on 11 October. Aston Villa left with a 0-0.
Sergej Jakirović doesn’t pretend his side will control games. Hull average 32% possession, and they play into the channels early. Oli McBurnie is the target for most of it, though he’s played 622 minutes without a league goal.
Mohamed Belloumi is the player who changes games for them. He has three goals and two assists, and he came off the bench to equalise against Everton. Semi Ajayi and Joe Gelhardt have one league goal each.
The injury list is long. Eliot Matazo (ACL), Matt Targett, Ilyas Ansah, Darko Gyabi, Charlie Hughes and Nobel Mendy are all out, and Jack Butland, Mohamed-Ali Cho and Lucas Gourna-Douath are doubts. Lucas Herrington, 19, should keep his place in the back five.
The 1-0 defeat at Fulham on 17 October was their second straight away league defeat after the 2-1 loss at Newcastle on 19 September, and they failed to score at Craven Cottage.
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Brentford: unbeaten away, but no away win since February 
Brentford’s away record this season reads as draws and only draws, 2-2 at Bournemouth on 12 September and 2-2 at Aston Villa on 10 October among them. They haven’t won a league game away from home since February.
At home it’s been better. They beat Chelsea 3-0 on 18 September and pushed Liverpool all the way before losing 2-1 last weekend, with Janelt and Yarmoliuk both sent off.
Janelt has two league goals on top of his work out of possession, and Yarmoliuk is the other half of that pairing. Without both, Jensen and Sangaré are expected to start at the base of midfield.
The injury news doesn’t help. Josh Dasilva (hamstring) and Kaye Furo (foot surgery) are out, while Antoni Milambo and Jannik Schuster are doubts. Kevin Schade, Brentford’s top scorer with three, has been carrying a shoulder problem, though he’s expected to start.
Igor Thiago leads the line again. He’s had 17 shots this season, and the goals haven’t matched the volume yet. Schade, Lewis-Potter and Anthony are set to play behind him.
Kelleher has been behind a defence that has let in eight in seven, with Diouf, Schuster, Ajer and Kayode the expected back four if Schuster is fit.
Probable lineup Hull City: Tzolakis; Giles, Herrington, Egan, Ajayi, Coyle; Thomas, Slater, Crooks, Belloumi; McBurnie
Probable lineup Brentford: Kelleher; Diouf, Schuster, Ajer, Kayode; Jensen, Sangaré; Schade, Lewis-Potter, Anthony; Thiago
Free Premier League Prediction: Hull City vs Brentford
Our prediction: Under 2.5 goals (odds 2.10)
Hull’s three home league games have finished 2-0, 0-0 and 2-2. Two of those three stayed under the line, and Jakirović’s 5-4-1 sits in, keeps the ball in front of it and gives up very little through the middle. Hull’s seven league games have produced 15 goals in total.
Brentford’s away draws have been open: 2-2 at Bournemouth and 2-2 at Villa both went over. But those came with Janelt and Yarmoliuk on the pitch. Without them, Andrews is more likely to keep his full-backs deeper and settle for a point on a ground where nobody has won this season.
The home side don’t score many and don’t let many in, and Brentford arrive short of bodies in the one area they can least afford it. I’d back Under 2.5 goals at 2.10.
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