- 1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets: the NBA’s second-best defense against its top-scoring offense
- 2 Oklahoma City Thunder: 64 wins, a 3-1 edge over Denver and a spread record that never matched the win total
- 3 Denver Nuggets: the league’s best offense starts its season in Oklahoma City, unbeaten against the spread as a big underdog
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets: the NBA’s second-best defense against its top-scoring offense 
Oklahoma City allowed 107.9 points per game last season, second-fewest in the NBA. Denver scored 122.1, the most in the league. Those two numbers meet on Thursday at Paycom Center, tip-off 9:30pm ET on ESPN.
The schedule gives the Thunder a head start. They’re 1-0 after opening their season in San Antonio on Tuesday, a rematch of the Western Conference finals they lost in seven games. Denver hasn’t played yet, so this is the Nuggets’ opener and the first meeting of the season between two Northwest Division rivals.
Last season’s series went 3-1 to Oklahoma City, but the margins were tight. The Thunder won 121-111 on 1 February, 127-121 on 27 February and 129-126 on 9 March. Denver took the last one, 127-107 on 10 April.
The market makes Oklahoma City a clear favorite. The spread sits between 7.5 and 8.5 points depending on the book, with the Thunder around 1.87 at -7.5 and Denver around 1.97 at +7.5. On the moneyline, the Nuggets are available at roughly 3.45 to 3.50. The total is 235.5. Lines posted on Wednesday morning had Oklahoma City at -7.5, and several books have since moved to -8.5, so the number on Denver has grown by a point.
We’d separate two questions. Oklahoma City winning at home is the likely outcome, and the moneyline price reflects that. Oklahoma City winning by eight or more against a team that didn’t lose any of the four meetings by more than ten is a different proposition, and that’s where we see value.
Both teams carry absences into the game. The Thunder are without Otega Oweh, who’s out for the season with an Achilles injury, while Nikola Topic (back) and Thomas Sorber (knee) are day-to-day. Denver will play without Julian Strawther, out with a knee problem.
Oklahoma City Thunder: 64 wins, a 3-1 edge over Denver and a spread record that never matched the win total 
Oklahoma City finished last season 64-18. It scored 119.0 points per game and allowed 107.9, a net margin of 11.1 points a night.
That season ended in a Game 7 at home. The Thunder led the Western Conference finals 3-2 and lost the deciding game to San Antonio 111-103. Tuesday’s opener sent them back to the Spurs’ building to start the new campaign, and they left it 1-0.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads a projected starting five that also includes Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Ajay Mitchell and Jared McCain. The injury list is mostly at the back end of the rotation: Oweh, Topic and Sorber are depth pieces rather than starters.
The betting record doesn’t match the standings. Oklahoma City went 39-43 against the spread last season, and 29-28 when laying 8.5 points or more. As a moneyline favorite it was 62-15, and 51-9 at prices of -306 or shorter, so the Thunder win these games far more often than they win them by margin.
Against Denver specifically, the three Oklahoma City wins came by 10, 6 and 3 points. Two of the three would have failed to cover tonight’s number, and the fourth meeting was a 20-point Nuggets win in April.
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Denver Nuggets: the league’s best offense starts its season in Oklahoma City, unbeaten against the spread as a big underdog 
Denver won 54 games last season and led the NBA in scoring at 122.1 points per game. The weakness was the other end: the Nuggets allowed 116.9 points, 21st in the league.
Nikola Jokic heads a projected lineup with Jamal Murray, DeMar DeRozan, Aaron Gordon and Cameron Johnson. DeRozan and Johnson give the Nuggets two more starters who can create their own shot next to Jokic.
The spread numbers favor the visitor. Denver went 44-38 against the spread last season and 4-0 when getting 8.5 points or more. As an outright underdog it won 12 of 24 games, and 4 of 5 at prices of +246 or longer.
Denver games also ran high. Fifty-one of its 82 games last season went over the total, while Oklahoma City’s games went over 45 times.
The roster has lost some depth. Strawther is out with his knee injury, and guard Lonnie Walker IV, released by Denver earlier this month, has since signed with Besiktas in Turkey. Neither was a starter, and the top five is intact for the opener.
Probable lineup Oklahoma City Thunder: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jared McCain, Ajay Mitchell, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren
Probable lineup Denver Nuggets: Jamal Murray, DeMar DeRozan, Cameron Johnson, Aaron Gordon, Nikola Jokic
Free NBA Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets
Our prediction: Denver Nuggets +7.5 (1.97)
We expect Oklahoma City to win this game. The Thunder have already played once, they’re at home, and their defense was the second-best in the league last season. Taking the Nuggets outright at 3.45 or longer would be a stretch.
The spread is where we disagree with the market. All three Oklahoma City wins over Denver last season came by 10 points or fewer, two of them by less than 7.5, and Denver won the other meeting by 20. Oklahoma City covered just 29 of 57 times as an 8.5-point favorite or bigger, while Denver went 4-0 as an underdog of that size.
A Denver team with Jokic, Murray and the league’s top-ranked offense from last season shouldn’t be priced as a side that loses by eight on opening night. We’re taking the Nuggets with the points, and we’d want +7.5 or better.
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