- 1 Philadelphia 76ers vs Cleveland Cavaliers: four straight Cleveland wins in this matchup, and a home opener for the Sixers
- 2 Philadelphia 76ers: six players in double figures at the Garden, but 106 points is below last season’s average
- 3 Cleveland Cavaliers: 52 wins last season, seven of the last ten against Philadelphia and a fresh roster on opening night
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: Philadelphia 76ers vs Cleveland Cavaliers
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
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Philadelphia 76ers vs Cleveland Cavaliers: four straight Cleveland wins in this matchup, and a home opener for the Sixers 
Cleveland has beaten Philadelphia 76ers four games in a row and won seven of the last ten meetings. The most recent was a 115-101 Cavaliers win in Ohio, and the Sixers have dropped three of their last four home games against this opponent.
Thursday’s setup is new for both teams. Philadelphia 76ers is 1-0 after a 106-100 win over the defending champion Knicks at Madison Square Garden, and it plays its first home game of the season against a Cleveland team that hasn’t played a regular-season game yet. Tip-off at Xfinity Mobile Arena is 7pm ET on ESPN.
The market has gone with the home team. Philadelphia 76ers is priced around 1.72 on the moneyline and Cleveland around 2.18, with the spread between 2.5 and 3.5 points depending on the book. The total sits at 235.5.
Both rosters were rebuilt at the top over the summer. The Sixers added LeBron James and Jaylen Brown, the latter in a trade with Boston, to a core of Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid. The Cavaliers signed James Harden to play next to Donovan Mitchell and gave Mitchell a contract extension.
We think the price leans too heavily on one good night in New York. Cleveland won 52 games last season, finished fourth in the East and reached the conference finals. Philadelphia 76ers won 45, finished seventh and was swept in the second round by the Knicks team it beat on Tuesday.
Neither side gave much away in October exhibitions. The Sixers went 1-3 in preseason and the Cavaliers 1-2, so we’ve weighted last season and the head-to-head far more than anything from the exhibition schedule.
Philadelphia 76ers: six players in double figures at the Garden, but 106 points is below last season’s average 
Maxey led the opener with 28 points. Brown added 19 points, eight rebounds and six assists in his first regular-season game for Philadelphia 76ers, and James finished with 14 points, nine rebounds and six assists.
Embiid posted a double-double with 13 points and 11 rebounds. Anfernee Simons scored 13 and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope added 10, so six Sixers reached double figures in a game where nobody went past 30.
Last season’s numbers explain the summer spending. The 76ers scored 115.9 points per game, 14th in the league, and allowed 116.1, 19th. Brown averaged 28.7 points on 47.7% shooting in Boston, while Maxey put up 28.3 points and 6.6 assists a night.
The win in New York came from the defensive end. Holding the Knicks to 100 was a strong result, but 106 points is almost ten below what this team averaged last season, and Cleveland’s offense ranked fourth in the league. We’d want to see the offense with James and Brown click at home before paying a short price on it.
The playoff record from last spring cuts both ways. The 76ers beat Boston 4-3 in the first round, then didn’t win a game against New York in the second. In preseason the Sixers beat the Knicks 120-97 and lost their other three, including a 125-120 overtime defeat in which Embiid scored 27 points with eight rebounds.
Depth beyond the top six is still settling. Dean Wade, Labaron Philon Jr. and Ariel Hukporti also arrived over the summer, and the Sixers play their second game in three nights after Tuesday’s trip to Manhattan.
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Cleveland Cavaliers: 52 wins last season, seven of the last ten against Philadelphia and a fresh roster on opening night 
Cleveland’s playoff run last spring went through two seven-game series, against Toronto and then Detroit. The Knicks swept the Cavaliers in the conference finals, and Game 4 ended 130-93 in Cleveland.
Harden is the headline change. He averaged 8.0 assists last season and now shares the ball with Mitchell, who averaged 27.9 points and made 3.2 threes per game. Evan Mobley, who pulled down 9.0 rebounds a game, and Jarrett Allen stay together up front.
The rest of the summer business was about depth: Peyton Watson, Mario Hezonja, Khalifa Diop and Thomas Bryant joined the roster. Watson is projected to start at forward on Thursday.
The offensive gap between these teams last season was clear. Cleveland scored 119.5 points per game, fourth in the NBA, against 76ers’ 115.9. Defensively the two were closer, with the Cavaliers allowing 115.4 and the Sixers 116.1.
Preseason was mixed: a 124-113 loss to Boston, a 119-105 win over Orlando, then a 132-116 defeat to close it out. What carries more weight for us is the run in this matchup, four straight wins over 76ers, the last one by 14 points.
Probable lineup Philadelphia 76ers: Tyrese Maxey, VJ Edgecombe, Jaylen Brown, LeBron James, Joel Embiid
Probable lineup Cleveland Cavaliers: James Harden, Donovan Mitchell, Peyton Watson, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen
Free NBA Prediction: Philadelphia 76ers vs Cleveland Cavaliers
Our prediction: Cleveland Cavaliers +3.5 (1.87)
We accept that this is Philadelphia’s home opener and that its top four looked comfortable together at the Garden on Tuesday. That’s the best case for the favorite, and it’s why the Sixers are a short price.
Against it, Cleveland was seven wins better than Philadelphia over 82 games last season, scored 3.6 more points per game and has taken seven of the last ten meetings. The moneyline market prices this close to even, so getting 3.5 points with the Cavaliers gives us room in a game we expect to be decided late.
Rest also points the same way. The Cavaliers open their season on Thursday, while the Sixers play their second game in three nights. We’re backing Cleveland with the points.
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