- 1 Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys: no Hurts, four straight defeats and a home underdog on Monday night
- 2 Philadelphia Eagles: 17.7 points a game, and 78.7% passing with a backup quarterback
- 3 Dallas Cowboys: 25.2 points a game, with 76 rushing yards to show for it
- 4 Free NFL Prediction: Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys: no Hurts, four straight defeats and a home underdog on Monday night 
Jalen Hurts won’t play on Monday night. The Eagles quarterback is out with blood clots, Saquon Barkley is dealing with a hamstring injury, and Tanner McKee starts again behind an offence that scored 14 points against Carolina last Sunday.
Philadelphia Eagles have lost four straight: 27-7 in Chicago, 24-20 at home to the Rams, 19-17 against Jacksonville in London and 25-14 at home to Carolina. They opened the season 2-0 and are now 2-4, level with Dallas at the bottom of the NFC East.
The Cowboys have their own problems. They lost 23-13 at Green Bay on 18 October, their third defeat in four games, and their defence allows 26.5 points and 382.5 yards per game, 25th and 30th in the league.
It’s a long way from last season, when Philadelphia Eagles went 11-6 and Dallas finished 7-9-1. The one meeting in Dallas went to the Cowboys, 24-21 in Week 12.
Dallas are 4.5-point favourites at Lincoln Financial Field, 1.46 on the moneyline with the Eagles at 2.80, and the total sits at 44.5. Kick-off is 8:15pm ET on ESPN. We think the quarterback gap settles this one, even with a Dallas defence that has given up yards to nearly everyone.
Philadelphia Eagles: 17.7 points a game, and 78.7% passing with a backup quarterback 
Philadelphia Eagles score 17.7 points per game, 28th in the league, and gain 255.5 yards, 30th. Their passing game averages 173.3 yards and their run game 82.2.
Against Carolina, McKee went 26 of 45 for 215 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions. DeVonta Smith caught seven passes for 75 yards, while Dameon Pierce ran 12 times for 35 yards at 2.9 a carry.
With Barkley hurt, the run game has stopped carrying any weight. The Eagles passed on 78.7% of their plays in Week 6, the highest rate in the league, under new offensive coordinator Sean Mannion. A backup quarterback throwing 45 times isn’t the offence this team was built around.
The defence has been better, allowing 22.8 points per game, 16th in the league. It has also been on the field longer than all but one other unit, and it shows late: Philadelphia Eagles allow around 10 points per fourth quarter, including 12 against Carolina.
The four-game slide has followed a pattern. The Eagles scored 7 in Chicago, 20 against the Rams, 17 in London and 14 against Carolina, and only the Rams game went past 17.
Turnovers haven’t come either. The Eagles have three takeaways all season, all interceptions, which leaves a defence spending long spells on the field with little to show for it.
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Dallas Cowboys: 25.2 points a game, with 76 rushing yards to show for it 
Dallas can score. They put 37 on Washington, 34 on Houston on the road and 31 on Baltimore, and they average 25.2 points per game, with 10 passing touchdowns and eight on the ground.
The last two weeks have been worse. Dallas lost 24-16 at home to Tampa Bay and then 23-13 in Green Bay, where Dak Prescott went 34 of 54 for 258 yards, one touchdown and two first-half interceptions, and the Cowboys converted two of four red-zone trips.
The run game gives Prescott little help. Dallas average 76 rushing yards per game, 31st in the NFL, and Javonte Williams managed 41 yards on 11 carries at Lambeau. George Pickens caught six passes for 73 yards.
Weather is the other factor. Four of Dallas’s six games have been played indoors, and in the two outdoor games Prescott averaged 5.1 and 4.8 yards per attempt, his lowest of the season. Philadelphia in late October is outdoors.
Their one road win came at Houston, 34-30 on the fourth weekend of the season. The other two away trips ended in defeat, 28-20 at the Giants in Week 1 and 23-13 at Green Bay, and in both games Dallas scored 20 or fewer. Their only other win came at home, 37-20 against Washington.
The Dallas defence allows 232.7 passing yards and 149.8 rushing yards per game, and has given up 18 touchdowns. Against most offences that would make the Cowboys a risky favourite. Against this Philadelphia attack, it matters less.
Probable lineup Philadelphia Eagles: QB Tanner McKee, RB Dameon Pierce, WR DeVonta Smith (Saquon Barkley’s status uncertain with a hamstring injury; full depth chart not announced at time of publication)
Probable lineup Dallas Cowboys: QB Dak Prescott, RB Javonte Williams, WR George Pickens (full depth chart not announced at time of publication)
Free NFL Prediction: Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys
Our prediction: Dallas Cowboys to win (moneyline) at 1.46
We’re backing Dallas to win. The Cowboys score 25.2 points a game, while Philadelphia have managed 7, 20, 17 and 14 in their four straight defeats, and now face Dallas without Hurts.
The weather and Prescott’s outdoor numbers are the case against us, and they’re the reason we’re not laying the 4.5 points. Dallas’s defence has given up at least 20 points in all six games, so this may well be closer than the spread suggests.
Still, a backup quarterback throwing on nearly four plays in five, backed by a defence with three takeaways all season, isn’t enough to beat a side scoring at Dallas’s rate. Philadelphia’s late-game defensive numbers point the same way, and we expect the Cowboys to win in the fourth quarter.
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