- 1 Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna: Baena’s late winners against a side with no clean sheets
- 2 Atletico Madrid: 19 league goals and five in a row, but Koke and Romero out
- 3 Deportivo La Coruna: five without a win and no Aubameyang until late November
- 4 Free La Liga Prediction: Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
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- 11 About visuals
Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna: Baena’s late winners against a side with no clean sheets 
Álex Baena came off the bench at Espanyol on Saturday and scored in the 89th minute. It won the game 1-0, it was his fifth league goal of the season, and it made it five La Liga wins in a row for Atlético Madrid.
Deportivo come to the Metropolitano on Saturday night, kick-off 20:00 UK time, without a league win since 5 September. Antonio Hidalgo’s side have drawn three and lost two since that 3-2 win at Villarreal, and they’ve slipped to tenth on 11 points.
Atlético are second on 22 points, five behind Barcelona and one ahead of Real Madrid, whom they beat 2-1 here on 20 September. Diego Simeone’s side have won three and drawn one at home this season, scoring ten and conceding three.
Tuesday’s trip to Stuttgart cost them something. They drew 1-1 after Julián Álvarez equalised just after half-time, his first goal of the season, but Morten Hjulmand was sent off in the 64th minute and Atlético played the last half-hour with ten men.
Deportivo’s problem is at the back. They’ve conceded in every one of their nine league games, and they’ve scored in eight of them. Their 13 goals for and 12 against make them one of the more open sides in the bottom half.
The most recent meeting was a Copa del Rey last-16 tie at Riazor on 13 January 2026, which Atlético won 1-0 through a 61st-minute Griezmann free kick. I’d expect more goals than that on Saturday.
Atletico Madrid: 19 league goals and five in a row, but Koke and Romero out 
Atlético average 2.1 league goals a game and concede 0.9, and four of their nine matches have finished with a clean sheet. Their last four home league meetings with Deportivo finished 1-0, 1-0, 3-0 and 2-0, the latest settled by a Kevin Gameiro penalty in April 2018.
The scoring has been shared out. Baena leads with five, and Johan David and Álex Grimaldo have three each. Grimaldo scored the penalty against Real Madrid and the opener at Alavés on 10 October, and Pablo Barrios scored in the first minute against Manchester United in the Champions League three days later.
Koke is out with a left hamstring injury and isn’t expected back until early November. Cuti Romero, who headed the late winner at Alavés, has a low-grade adductor strain and has been ruled out of this game.
Hjulmand’s red card came in Europe, so he’s available. Giuliano Simeone and Hjulmand are both expected to start in midfield, with Kang-in Lee the alternative if Simeone rests.
Álvarez’s goal in Stuttgart should help. Before Tuesday he hadn’t scored all season, and Simeone has Alexander Sørloth, Ademola Lookman and David as options if he rotates up front.
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Deportivo La Coruna: five without a win and no Aubameyang until late November 
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is Deportivo’s top scorer with five league goals, and he won’t be back until around 22 November after meniscus surgery. Without him they drew 1-1 at home to Levante on 16 October, Bil Nsongo scoring in the 63rd minute before Levante equalised in the 82nd.
Five days earlier they lost 3-2 at Real Sociedad, with Soriano and a Yeremay penalty getting their goals. That defeat, a 1-1 with Betis and a 1-0 home loss to Sevilla make up most of a run that’s brought three points from 15.
Away from home they’ve been more productive. Deportivo have won one, drawn two and lost one on the road, scoring seven and conceding seven, and the win was that 3-2 at Villarreal in September.
The injury list is long. Bright Ede (hamstring), Zakaria Eddahchouri (wrist) and Marc Casado (collarbone) are out, and Noe Carrillo is a doubt. Yeremay has recovered from a head wound and should start.
Deportivo haven’t kept a clean sheet all season. They average 1.4 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per league game, and they’ve scored in eight of nine.
Probable lineup Atletico Madrid: Oblak; Llorente, Pubill, Le Normand, Hancko, Grimaldo; Barrios, Hjulmand, G. Simeone, Baena; J. Álvarez
Probable lineup Deportivo La Coruna: Leo Román; Ximo Navarro, José Giménez, Noubi, Quagliata; Amatucci, Villares, Soriano; Adama Traoré, Yeremay; Nsongo
Free La Liga Prediction: Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna
Our prediction: Over 2.5 goals @ 1.53
Atlético at 1.25 to win is too short to bother with. The goal line is where I’d go. Atlético’s four home league games have produced 13 goals, 3.25 a game, and Deportivo’s nine league games have produced 25.
The old head-to-head points the other way: Atlético’s last four home league wins over Deportivo were all to nil, and only one of them had more than two goals. Those games are years old, though, and this Deportivo side has conceded in all nine matches this season while scoring in eight.
I’d back over 2.5 goals at 1.53. Atlético should score two or three, and Deportivo have scored in all four of their away league games.
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