- 1 Coventry City vs Fulham: 17th against 18th, one point apart
- 2 Coventry City: Rudoni in form, but a thin squad behind him
- 3 Fulham: one win in seven, none of it away from Craven Cottage
- 4 Free Premier League Prediction: Coventry City vs Fulham
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Coventry City vs Fulham: 17th against 18th, one point apart 
Seventeenth meets eighteenth at the Coventry Building Society Arena on Saturday. Coventry have six points from seven games, Fulham have five, and Coventry only dropped to 17th on Monday night, when Tottenham’s 3-1 win over them lifted Spurs above on goal difference.
That defeat followed the best afternoon of Coventry’s season. Frank Lampard’s newly promoted side beat Newcastle 4-1 on 12 October, their first home Premier League win in roughly a quarter of a century, with Rudoni, Chérif, Simms and Mfuni all scoring.
Fulham have had a different kind of autumn. Álvaro Arbeloa’s side didn’t win a league game until 17 October, when Alex Iwobi’s deflected shot on 33 minutes beat Hull 1-0 at Craven Cottage. The win came at a cost: Ryan Sessegnon was sent off in stoppage time and is suspended for Saturday.
The two clubs have met twice before, both in the Championship in 2021-22, and Coventry won both: 4-1 at home on 2 October 2021 and 3-1 at Craven Cottage on 10 April 2022. Both games had goals at each end, though only a handful of players from either squad remain relevant to this one.
Kick-off is 15:00 UK time. The bookmakers have Fulham as slight favourites at 2.30, with Coventry at 2.90 and the draw at 3.40, and I think that price on the visitors asks too much of a side that hasn’t won away from home all season.
Coventry City: Rudoni in form, but a thin squad behind him 
Rudoni has scored in each of Coventry’s last two league games, the opener from the penalty spot against Newcastle and the equaliser at Tottenham on 49 minutes. His two league goals make him the club’s top scorer, and his nine chances created put him at the centre of most of what Coventry do well.
The Tottenham game turned after that equaliser. Spurs had led through Maddison on 14 minutes, went back in front through Marmoush on 58 and added a third from Ben Davies deep in stoppage time, and it was Coventry’s sixth straight defeat against Tottenham.
Lampard’s selection problems are real. Aurele Amenda (calf), Haji Wright (muscle), Josh Eccles and Luke Woolfenden (knee) are all out, Taiwo Awoniyi is reported to be suspended, and Kesler-Hayden is a doubt with a muscle problem.
The home record is mixed. Coventry lost 1-0 to Hull on 29 August and 5-0 to Brighton on 13 September before the Newcastle win, and their other league victory came away, 1-0 at Nottingham Forest on 19 September.
Lampard has named the same starting XI in each of the last two games, with Rushworth in goal, Pinnock and Bobby Thomas at centre-back and Chérif up front. Across their last ten matches in all competitions Coventry have averaged 1.3 goals scored and 1.9 conceded, which explains why their games rarely stay quiet.
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Fulham: one win in seven, none of it away from Craven Cottage 
The Hull game was Fulham’s first league win of the season, and it came at home. Their away results read like a side that can defend but can’t finish: 0-0 at Liverpool on 12 September, then a 2-1 defeat at Ipswich on 10 October.
Goals have been scarce for a reason. Seven league goals in seven games is the return, and Joshua King leads the way with two, from 17 shots with nine on target. Iwobi, Gonzalo García, Palacios and the suspended Sessegnon have one each.
Iwobi is the creative source, with 16 chances created, and he’s expected to start on the right of a front three behind Gonzalo García. Oscar Bobb and King complete the attacking line in most projections, although both are reported to be carrying knocks.
Sessegnon’s ban leaves a gap at left-back, and Hugo Larsson’s groin injury has him listed as either doubtful or out. Antonee Robinson (ankle) and Tom Cairney (knee) are also doubts, which could leave Arbeloa short of experience in both full-back spots and in central midfield.
Over their last ten matches in all competitions Fulham have averaged 1.4 points per game, but that drops to one point per game away from home. The defence, with ten league goals conceded, is the stronger half of the team, and the 1-0 against Hull was their first clean sheet since the 0-0 at Anfield.
Probable lineup Coventry City: Rushworth; van Ewijk, Pinnock, B. Thomas, Dasilva; Grimes, Yirenkyi; Mason-Clark, Rudoni, Thomas-Asante; Chérif
Probable lineup Fulham: Leno; Castagne, Affengruber, Bassey, Robinson; Charles, Berge; Iwobi, King, Bobb; Gonzalo García
Free Premier League Prediction: Coventry City vs Fulham
Our prediction: Coventry City win or draw (double chance) – 1.57
Fulham are favourites because of the badge and the squad, not because of their results. They’ve won once in seven league games, they’re without a win away from home, and they travel without Sessegnon and possibly Larsson.
Coventry have the striker in form in Rudoni, a crowd that has just seen a 4-1 win over Newcastle, and two wins from two against Fulham, even if both came in the second tier. Double chance on the home side at 1.57 keeps the draw on our side, and the draw at 3.40 is a live outcome between two teams that struggle to score.
The worry is Coventry’s injury list, and the 5-0 against Brighton showed what happens when they’re overrun. Fulham haven’t overrun anyone this season, though, and I’d rather back the side that has scored five goals in its last two games than the one that has won one match since August.
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