- 1 Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United: a Thursday night in Istanbul against a full week of rest
- 2 Crystal Palace: 17 conceded in seven, and a fitness list that keeps growing
- 3 Newcastle United: a new manager, a new squad, and eight goals conceded on three away trips
- 4 Free Premier League Prediction: Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United: a Thursday night in Istanbul against a full week of rest 
Crystal Palace play Besiktas in Istanbul on Thursday night and then host Newcastle at Selhurst Park on Sunday afternoon. Newcastle haven’t played since 17 October and have no European fixture this season, so they’ll arrive with a full week of training behind them.
That gap in the schedule is the context for everything else. Palace’s last Premier League outing was a 5-0 defeat at Brighton on 18 October, three goals down inside ten minutes, and three days before that they’d lost 3-2 in Lyon in the Europa League.
Newcastle aren’t in much better shape. They lost 1-0 at home to Aston Villa on 17 October, Manzambi heading the only goal on 36 minutes, five days after a 4-1 defeat at newly promoted Coventry. That’s three defeats in their last four league games for Matthias Jaissle, who took over from Eddie Howe in August.
The table separates them by a single point. Newcastle are 11th on 8 points with ten scored and 14 conceded, while Palace are 14th on 7 points with nine scored and 17 conceded. Both goal differences are negative, and both defences have been the problem.
Sunday’s game kicks off at 14:00 UK time, on the day the clocks go back. The bookmakers make Newcastle slight favourites at around 2.40, with Palace at 2.70 to 2.85, and I think the more reliable read lies in the goals market rather than the result.
Crystal Palace: 17 conceded in seven, and a fitness list that keeps growing 
Pierre Sage’s side have conceded 17 league goals, more than anyone around them, and eight of those came in three home games. Their only home league win came on 11 October, 3-1 against Nottingham Forest after Dan Ndoye had put Forest ahead in the third minute.
That Forest game also shows where the goals come from. Daichi Kamada equalised before half-time, Lerma added a second in first-half stoppage time and Yeremy Pino made it three on 59 minutes. Kamada has a goal and three assists in the league, and Tyrick Mitchell leads the club with two league goals from wing-back.
The absences are stacking up. Chadi Riad is out with a knee injury, Ben Chilwell and Takehiro Tomiyasu are listed as out or doubtful, and Dean Henderson’s ankle problem has left Walter Benitez in goal. Axel Disasi’s availability is clouded by a suspension, with reports disagreeing on whether he’s served it.
Jean-Philippe Mateta came off the bench at Brighton for only his second appearance of the season after a hamstring injury, and he’s still listed as doubtful. Without him, Jørgen Strand Larsen is the expected centre-forward in a 3-4-2-1.
Palace also take only 10.14 shots per game, the lowest figure in the division, while winning more tackles per game than anyone. That’s a side built on running and duels, and it has to do both again on Sunday less than 72 hours after kick-off in Istanbul.
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Newcastle United: a new manager, a new squad, and eight goals conceded on three away trips 
Newcastle lost Anthony Gordon, Sandro Tonali and Bruno Guimarães in the summer, along with Howe himself. Jaissle was appointed on 5 August, and seven league games in, his side have won twice, at home to Hull 2-1 on 19 September and 2-0 at Tottenham on 29 August.
The away record is where the concern lies. Newcastle have won one of three league games on the road, scoring four and conceding eight, and they lost 4-1 at both Leeds and Coventry.
At Coventry they fell behind to an early Rudoni penalty and then conceded three more after half-time, with Sven Botman’s 70th-minute goal the only reply. Botman was booked against Villa after a VAR check for a possible red card, and he’s still expected to partner Malick Thiaw at centre-back.
Joe Willock is the top league scorer with two goals from 16 shots, and Harvey Barnes has a goal, two assists and 13 chances created. Yoane Wissa is expected to lead the line, with Lukas Hornicek in goal and Nico Gonzalez and Joelinton in midfield.
Anthony Elanga, Jacob Ramsey, Tino Livramento and goalkeeper Ewen Jaouen are all out. The squad isn’t deep, but a free week is a real advantage here, and across their last ten games in all competitions both teams have scored in seven of Newcastle’s matches.
Probable lineup Crystal Palace: Benitez; Ahanor, Richards, Canvot; Khalaili, Timber, Wharton, Mitchell; Pino, Kamada; Strand Larsen
Probable lineup Newcastle United: Hornicek; Miley, Thiaw, Botman, Hall; Nico Gonzalez, Joelinton; Barnes, Willock, Fernandez-Pardo; Wissa
Free Premier League Prediction: Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United
Our prediction: Both teams to score – Yes (around 1.50)
Neither defence gives us a reason to expect a clean sheet. Palace have conceded 17 in seven league games and eight in three at home, Newcastle have conceded eight in three away trips, and the two sides have kept one league clean sheet each all season.
Both attacks have also found ways to score in the games that matter here. Palace scored six in their three home league games and two more in Lyon a week ago, while Newcastle have scored in all three of their away league games and their matches have produced goals at both ends in seven of the last ten.
The obvious risk is Palace’s legs after Istanbul, which could hand Newcastle control of the game and a 1-0 or 2-0. I’d still take both teams to score at around 1.50, because a tired Palace defence is more likely to concede than a rested Newcastle one is to keep them out.
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