- 1 Kairat Almaty vs Panathinaikos: four blank European nights before a penalty in Riga
- 2 Kairat Almaty: second in Kazakhstan, but one goal in six European games this summer
- 3 Panathinaikos: 17 scored, four conceded and top of Greece
- 4 Free Conference League Prediction: Kairat Almaty vs Panathinaikos
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Kairat Almaty vs Panathinaikos: four blank European nights before a penalty in Riga 
Kairat Almaty went four European matches without scoring between 4 and 27 August. Levski Sofia beat them 1-0 home and away in Champions League qualifying, then Anderlecht won 3-0 in Almaty and 3-0 in Brussels in the Europa League play-off.
The drought ended in Riga last Thursday. Marc Gual scored from the spot after five minutes once VAR had a look, and Salah-Eddine Oulad M’Hand levelled for Riga seven minutes later. It finished 1-1, one point from matchday one.
Panathinaikos arrive at the Almaty Central Stadium top of the Greek Super League, with 18 points from seven games and two clear of Olympiakos. They’ve scored 17 and conceded four in the league, and Sunday’s 5-1 win over Asteras Tripolis was the latest of those.
Their only defeat in the last eight was 1-0 at Olympiakos on 11 October. Around it sit wins over PAOK (3-1), Kifisia (3-1), Panetolikos (3-0), Kalamata (1-0 away), Kifisia again in the cup (2-0 away), Borac in Europe and Asteras on Sunday.
The two clubs have never met. Kick-off is 15:30 UK time on Thursday 22 October, and both sides play again on Sunday: Kairat away at Aktobe, Panathinaikos away at Volos.
Bookmakers have Kairat at 5.00 and Panathinaikos at 1.62. I’ve no quarrel with that gap.
Kairat Almaty: second in Kazakhstan, but one goal in six European games this summer 
At home in the league, Kairat look a different side. They beat Irtysh 5-0 on Saturday and Zhetysu 1-0 the week before.
Before that Irtysh win they were second in the Kazakh Premier League on 60 points from 27 games, four behind Ordabasy, with 52 scored and 20 conceded. September was rougher: Tobol won 4-1 in Almaty on 13 September and Astana beat them 1-0 four days later.
Edmilson and Gual share the goals with 10 each in all competitions. Gual joined from Rio Ave on 12 June and the penalty in Riga was his latest.
Europe has been another matter. Against Omonia, Levski and Anderlecht, Kairat scored once in six matches, a 1-0 home win over Omonia on 29 July. Anderlecht’s 3-0 in Almaty on 20 August is the last home European game they’ve played.
Rafael Urazbakhtin’s side picked up three bookings in Riga, Jaakko Oksanen, Yerkin Tapalov and Aleksandr Martynovich all going into the book. One caution apiece isn’t enough for a ban, and no injuries have been reported.
Over their last 10 matches Kairat have taken 1.60 points per game, rising to 1.80 at home. In Almaty they’ve scored 2.00 per game but conceded 1.40, with a 60% home win rate across that stretch.
The fixture list doesn’t help after this. Atalanta away on 5 November, Mjällby and Universitatea Craiova at home, then Twente away in December. Thursday is one of three home dates, and against the strongest of their three home visitors.
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Panathinaikos: 17 scored, four conceded and top of Greece 
Four goals conceded in seven league games, Sunday’s 5-1 included. That’s the defensive base Panathinaikos take on a long trip east.
Against Asteras the goals were shared out: de Vrij on 27 minutes, Louza on 31, Cyriel Dessers on 62, Calabria on 72 and Tetteh on 83. Louza also set up two.
Dessers had already scored from the spot after 10 minutes against Borac on matchday one, and Kings Kangwa made it 2-0 on 70 minutes from Santino Andino’s pass before Miloš Jojić pulled one back. Vicente Taborda missed a penalty in the sixth minute of that game, so it could have been more comfortable.
The worry is Azzedine Ounahi. He came off after 19 minutes against Asteras, and there’s been no word on how long he’ll be out.
The bench offers cover. Tetteh, Taborda, Rastoder, Chirivella and Jagušić all came on against Asteras, and Tetteh scored, with a trip to Volos to come on Sunday.
Away from Athens they’ve won three of their last four with three clean sheets. In qualifying they won 2-1 at Paks, 2-1 at CSKA 1948 and 2-1 at Hradec Králové.
Over the last 10 games Panathinaikos have averaged 2.70 points, and the underlying numbers match the results: 2.24 expected goals per game for, 0.86 against.
After Almaty come CSKA Sofia at home on 5 November, then Nordsjaelland and Freiburg away and Brighton at home in December. A win here would put them in a strong spot before the hardest part of the draw.
Probable lineup Kairat Almaty: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Panathinaikos: Not announced at time of publication
Free Conference League Prediction: Kairat Almaty vs Panathinaikos
Our prediction: Panathinaikos to win (1.62)
One goal in six European matches before Riga, and that goal came from the spot. Kairat’s 5-0 over Irtysh says something about the Kazakh league, but Anderlecht won 3-0 in this stadium two months ago and Panathinaikos have conceded four times in seven league games.
The trip to Kairat Almaty is long and Ounahi may be missing, which is the honest case against the pick. I’d still back a side that won at Paks, CSKA 1948 and Hradec Králové this summer, all by the same 2-1 score.
Panathinaikos at 1.62 is the bet. I’d want a lot more from Kairat in Europe before taking them on at home.
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