- 1 Union Saint-Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer-Sheva: a home game in Düsseldorf, with nobody in the stands
- 2 Union Saint-Gilloise: four goals conceded in eight league games, and a goal-line clearance that kept a point
- 3 Hapoel Beer-Sheva: one point, one goal, and no away win in Europe in ten attempts
- 4 Free Europa League Prediction: Union Saint-Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer-Sheva
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
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Union Saint-Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer-Sheva: a home game in Düsseldorf, with nobody in the stands 
Union Saint-Gilloise will play Thursday’s home game in Germany. The Belgian club normally takes its European fixtures to Leuven, because its own ground in Brussels doesn’t meet UEFA’s requirements, but the mayor of Leuven refused permission for this one, citing the risk of unrest linked to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
The club looked for a venue closer to Brussels that could take supporters and was told that wasn’t possible for safety reasons. So the match goes to the Merkur Spiel-Arena, Fortuna Düsseldorf’s ground, a stadium that holds more than 54,000 people and will be empty. Kick-off is 17:45 UK time.
That matters more for Union than for their visitors. Hapoel Beer-Sheva already played to an empty away end in Alkmaar last week, where the authorities banned travelling Israeli fans, so a silent stadium isn’t new to them. Union, on the other hand, lose the one thing a home tie normally gives a side of their size.
The table explains why it still shouldn’t change the outcome much. Union have four points from two games after a 3-0 win in Plzeň and a 1-1 draw with Real Sociedad, and they sit 12th. Beer-Sheva have one point, from a goalless home draw with Dinamo Zagreb, and lost 2-1 at AZ on matchday two.
The clubs have never met. What the numbers do show is a Union side that’s unbeaten in ten games in all competitions and has conceded twice in its last six, against an Israeli team that hasn’t won any of its last ten European away games, eight of them defeats. I’d expect the venue to take some noise out of the night, not the gap between the sides.
Union Saint-Gilloise: four goals conceded in eight league games, and a goal-line clearance that kept a point 
David Hubert’s side are fourth in the Jupiler Pro League with 20 points from eight games, two behind leaders Gent, and they haven’t lost yet. Six wins and two draws have come with 22 goals scored and four conceded, which is the clearest single fact about this team: they don’t give much away.
The run includes a 3-0 home win over Anderlecht on 30 August, a 5-0 against Lommel and a 2-0 win at Antwerp on 20 September. The one blip came on 11 October, when OH Leuven drew 1-1 at Union after Opoku had scored for the hosts on 17 minutes and then turned the ball into his own net on 66. Louis Patris was sent off in stoppage time that day, but a domestic red card doesn’t carry into Europe. Union then beat KFC Nijlen 3-0 in the Belgian Cup on Saturday.
In Europe, Union won 3-0 in Plzeň on 17 September with goals from Mofokeng after 18 minutes, Biondic before the break and Kricfalusi’s header from a corner just before the hour. Against Real Sociedad, Turrientes put the Spaniards ahead early in the second half after a mistake by Van de Perre, Sekou Keita equalised late when Zubeldia flicked on a free-kick, and in stoppage time Massiré Sylla cleared Orri Óskarsson’s effort off the line with Koffi beaten.
Sylla is worth a paragraph of his own. The 21-year-old Senegalese defender joined from Lyn in January, spent that night containing Mikel Oyarzabal and finished it in pain. He said afterwards that he’d never seen this team give up since he arrived.
Hurtevent, Zorgane, Kricfalusi, Schoofs, Kevin Rodríguez and Kevin Mac Allister are all listed as unavailable. That takes out a goalscorer from matchday one and a midfielder who captained the side in Plzeň. Union’s answer this season has been set-pieces: ten of their last 15 goals in major European competition came from dead balls, and their 18 shots on target across the first two matchdays is the joint-highest figure in the competition.
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Hapoel Beer-Sheva: one point, one goal, and no away win in Europe in ten attempts 
Beer-Sheva came close to a bigger stage this season. They knocked out Víkingur and then Red Star Belgrade, winning both legs against the Serbians 1-0 and 2-0, before losing the Champions League play-off to Sabah: 2-1 up at home on 19 August, then beaten 5-2 after extra time in the return six days later.
In the Europa League, a 0-0 at home to Dinamo Zagreb on 16 September was followed by last Thursday’s defeat in Alkmaar. Koopmeiners put AZ ahead just after half-time, Forson Amankwah levelled about six minutes later, and Meerdink won it from the spot on 75 minutes after Diop brought down Kovács, a decision confirmed by VAR.
So two European games have produced a single goal. That’s the figure I keep returning to, because it fits a longer pattern: ten European away games without a win, eight of them lost. Ran Kozuk has only been in charge for seven matches, with three wins, three draws and a defeat, and he hasn’t had long to change that.
In the Israeli top flight, Beer-Sheva are fourth with 16 points from seven games, and they’ve won their last two: 2-0 at Ironi Tiberias on 10 October and 2-1 at home to Hapoel Jerusalem on Saturday, when Igor Zlatanović scored twice in the last 16 minutes, the second from the penalty spot, after Jerusalem’s Ofek Nadir had been sent off. Earlier in September, though, Maccabi Tel Aviv won 4-1 in Beer-Sheva, and that’s the closest domestic match to the level they’ll face on Thursday.
Three players are out: João Victor, Idan Nachmias and Dan Biton. Zlatanović is expected to lead the line between Ahmed and Abu Rumi, with Peretz anchoring the midfield. Peretz has eight bookings in 14 games, and a holding midfielder playing on the edge against a side built on set-pieces is a risk Kozuk can’t do much about.
Probable lineup Union Saint-Gilloise: Koffi; Sylla, Chibani, Havenaar; Smith, Van de Perre, Zeneli, Patris; Olaru; Biondic, Mofokeng
Probable lineup Hapoel Beer-Sheva: Marciano; Amador, Diop, Vítor, Mizrahi; Peretz, Yehoshua, Forson; Ahmed, Zlatanović, Abu Rumi
Free Europa League Prediction: Union Saint-Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer-Sheva
Our prediction: Both teams to score – No (1.95)
Union are around 1.41 to win, which is too short to be worth taking on its own, so the better route is through the side of the game that’s been most consistent: Union’s defence. They’ve conceded four goals in eight league games and two in their last six matches in all competitions, and their home league numbers average 0.38 goals against per game.
Beer-Sheva have scored once in two Europa League games and haven’t won any of their last ten European away trips. Their attack depends heavily on Zlatanović, and the empty stadium removes any lift a travelling support might have given them. The honest case against this pick is Union’s injury list, which forces Hubert to change a back line that’s been settled.
Union have a 3-0 win in Plzeň and a clean-sheet habit in Belgium, and against a side this short of goals away from home, I’d take both teams to score at No, priced at 1.95.
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