- 1 Monaco vs Freiburg: two beaten sides, two leaky defences
- 2 Monaco: Brunner back for Europe, six games in a row with a goal conceded
- 3 Freiburg: Scherhant scores again, but the back line has conceded in four of six
- 4 Free Conference League Prediction: Monaco vs Freiburg
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Monaco vs Freiburg: two beaten sides, two leaky defences 
Freiburg went into Saturday top of the Bundesliga and came out of it third, a point behind Bayern Munich. Patrik Schick’s goal on 76 minutes gave Bayer Leverkusen a 2-1 win and ended a nine-game unbeaten run that stretched back to last season’s Europa League final.
Monaco arrived at Lorient on Sunday as the only side in Ligue 1 without a league defeat and lost 1-0 to a Cadiou penalty on 61 minutes, given after Denis Zakaria fouled Sylla. They’re on 14 points from seven games.
So two sides who won on the opening night of the Conference League league phase meet at the Stade Louis II on Thursday, kick-off 20:00 UK time, each having lost three days earlier. Both have three points from Matchday 1: Monaco won 2-1 at CSKA Sofia and Freiburg beat Jablonec 3-2 at home.
It’s the first competitive meeting between the clubs. Filipe Luis took charge of Monaco after leaving Flamengo, while Julian Schuster passed 100 games as Freiburg coach last week.
Monaco reached the league phase by beating Gornik Zabrze 3-2 away and 4-1 at home. Add the win in Sofia and they’ve scored at least twice in all three of their European games this season, and conceded in all three as well.
The market makes Monaco slight favourites at 2.10, with Freiburg at 2.87 and the draw around 3.40. I can’t split them on the result. What I’m sure about is that both defences have been easy to score against for a month.
Monaco: Brunner back for Europe, six games in a row with a goal conceded 
Monaco haven’t kept a clean sheet since beating Marseille 2-0 on 30 August. Since then they’ve conceded once at PSG in a 2-1 win, once at Strasbourg, once against Lens, twice against Toulouse, once at CSKA and once at Lorient.
Brunner is the man they rely on for goals. He has six in all competitions, four of them in Ligue 1, and he opened the scoring after three minutes in Sofia. His suspension only applies to domestic games, so he’s available on Thursday.
Ansu Fati scored the winner in Bulgaria on 43 minutes, and Minamino started that game after recovering from a torn cruciate ligament. Edan Diop and Matthis Abline both scored in the 2-2 draw with Toulouse on 10 October, so the goals are coming from several places.
Eric Dier is injured and Idumbo is still being treated. Balogun isn’t registered for the Conference League, which makes Brunner even more central to what Filipe Luis can do in this competition. Mamadou Coulibaly was on the bench in Sofia after a hamstring problem.
The expected 4-2-3-1 puts Zakaria and Camara in front of a back four of Teze, Sané, Salisu and Mawissa, with Golovin behind Brunner. Zakaria gave away the penalty at Lorient.
Lorient was a poor afternoon, played without the suspended Brunner. At home Monaco have beaten Marseille and Lens and drawn with Toulouse, scoring twice in each of those games.
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Freiburg: Scherhant scores again, but the back line has conceded in four of six 
Freiburg’s last six results are 2-1 down at Leverkusen, 3-2 against Jablonec, 2-1 against Schalke, 2-2 at Frankfurt, 5-0 against Borussia Monchengladbach and 1-0 at Paderborn. Both teams scored in the first four of those.
Jablonec scored twice at the Europa-Park Stadion last Thursday, the second in stoppage time through Kuol. Vincenzo Grifo had opened the scoring from a free kick on 15 minutes and Maximilian Eggestein got the third on 65 minutes, but Freiburg never looked comfortable at the back.
Eggestein has three Bundesliga goals and one in the Conference League. Yuito Suzuki has four in the league and is available here, because his red card against Schalke carries a domestic ban only. Scherhant returned from a muscle problem at Leverkusen and scored after 14 minutes.
That lead lasted five minutes. Maza equalised on 19 minutes, it stayed 1-1 at half-time, and Schick won it with a quarter of an hour left. Freiburg had also conceded twice in the 2-2 draw at Frankfurt on 19 September.
Florent Muslija has ruptured a cruciate ligament and isn’t registered, while Ogbus and Yilmaz are injured. The XI expected on Thursday is the same one Schuster started against Jablonec.
Freiburg won 3-1 at Motherwell and 4-1 at home in the play-off, so they’ve scored at least three in all three of their European games this season. They’ve also conceded in all three.
Probable lineup Monaco: Hradecky; Teze, Sané, Salisu, Mawissa; Camara, Zakaria; Minamino, Golovin, Fati; Brunner
Probable lineup Freiburg: Backhaus; Kübler, Ginter, Rosenfelder, Günter; Eggestein, Osterhage; Irié, Suzuki, Grifo; Höler
Free Conference League Prediction: Monaco vs Freiburg
Our prediction: Both teams to score (odds 1.50)
Monaco have conceded in each of their last six competitive games and scored in five of them. Freiburg have seen both sides score in four of their last six. Put those together at the Stade Louis II and I’d be surprised if either goalkeeper kept a clean sheet.
The one thing that worries me is Monaco’s blank at Lorient. But Brunner, who has six goals this season, sat that one out and is back for this one, and Freiburg have Grifo, Suzuki and Eggestein all scoring regularly.
I’m not picking a winner between two teams this evenly matched. Both teams to score at 1.50 is the bet that fits what both defences have shown since the start of September.
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