- 1 FC Groningen vs Ajax: an unchanged home side against a tired, depleted visitor
- 2 FC Groningen: unbeaten in four with the same eleven four matches running
- 3 Ajax: three without a win, five senior absentees and a Thursday trip to Split
- 4 Free Football Prediction: FC Groningen vs Ajax
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
FC Groningen vs Ajax: an unchanged home side against a tired, depleted visitor 
Ajax travel to the Euroborg without Kasper Dolberg, out long-term with a torn cruciate ligament, and without Steven Berghuis, Daley Blind, Caio Henrique and Anton Gaaei. Simon Adingra is back from injury but not fully fit.
The game kicks off at 16:45 Paris time on Sunday 18 October, in Eredivisie Gameweek 9. One point separates the sides: Ajax have 15 from eight games (four wins, three draws, one defeat) and FC Groningen have 14 (four wins, two draws, two defeats). Michel’s side are five points behind leaders Feyenoord.
The form lines cross. Groningen are unbeaten in four league games, a run that includes a 3-0 win over PEC Zwolle and a 5-1 win at Excelsior on 11 October. Ajax are winless in three in all competitions: 2-2 against Excelsior, 1-1 at home to NEC and a 2-1 defeat at Hajduk Split in the Conference League on Thursday.
That slowdown followed a productive spell. Ajax scored at least three goals in five of six matches before the current run, including 5-1 wins over Fortuna Sittard and Willem II. In the three games since, they’ve averaged one goal per match.
Groningen won this fixture 3-1 in March 2026, their first home win against Ajax in six years. Ajax won the return 2-0 in May, and the longer record is lopsided: 22 Ajax wins, four draws and five Groningen wins across 31 meetings.
The market prices Ajax at 1.85, Groningen at 3.40 and the draw at 3.90. Groningen’s selection stability, set against an Ajax squad coming off a Thursday night in Croatia, is where we see the price as too generous to the visitors.
FC Groningen: unbeaten in four with the same eleven four matches running 
Dick Lukkien’s side started badly, losing 5-1 at PSV and 3-2 at home to Fortuna Sittard. Since then: 2-2 against FC Twente, 1-1 at Go Ahead Eagles, 3-0 against Zwolle and 5-1 at Excelsior.
The 5-1 defeat at PSV remains the heaviest of Groningen’s season. PSV also beat Ajax 3-1 in Amsterdam, so it’s the one opponent both clubs have lost to in the league this term.
The win over Zwolle brought their first clean sheet of the season. Groningen still concede regularly, but they’ve scored at least once in every league game listed above.
Two forwards share the goals. Thom van Bergen and Brynjolfur Darri Willumsson have five league goals each, Van Bergen has seven direct goal involvements, and David van der Werff has three assists from the right side.
Groningen have kept 95% of their starting XI across the last six games and named an identical eleven four matches in a row. Etienne Vaessen and Marco Blokzijl have started every one of the last five meetings with Ajax.
The injury list is long but settled. Travis Hernes, Tyrique Mercera, Elvis van der Laan, Malcolm Jeng (Achilles) and Rijk Janse are out, and Metu is doubtful, none of them part of the side that has gone unbeaten.
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Ajax: three without a win, five senior absentees and a Thursday trip to Split 
Michel’s Ajax opened with a 4-0 win at Telstar, lost 3-1 at home to PSV, then scored ten in back-to-back 5-1 wins. The draws with Excelsior and NEC followed, and the defeat in Split was their first loss in any competition since the PSV game in early September.
Tolu Arokodare has four league goals, including in consecutive matches, and Julian Brandt also has four. Davy Klaassen has three, while Oscar Gloukh has scored once.
The absences hit both the creative and defensive sides of the squad. Berghuis and Blind are two of the most experienced players at the club, Caio Henrique (thigh) and Gaaei remove options at full-back, and Dolberg’s ACL injury leaves Arokodare as the only established centre-forward.
Rotation is the other factor. Ajax have retained 62% of their starting XI over the last six games, and with the Conference League on Thursday nights, Michel has had to shuffle midfield and attack repeatedly.
Klaassen, Sofyan Amrabat and Brandt should form the midfield, with Thilo Kehrer and Youri Baas at centre-back. Klaassen has started the last three meetings with Groningen.
Probable lineup FC Groningen: Vaessen; Schreuders, Blokzijl, Rente, Hateboer; De Jonge, Clement; Van der Werff, Van Bergen, Ondrejka; Willumsson
Probable lineup Ajax: Ter Stegen; Rosa, Kehrer, Baas, Wijndal; Klaassen, Amrabat, Brandt; Tsygankov, Arokodare, Gloukh
Free Football Prediction: FC Groningen vs Ajax
Our prediction: Draw (odds 3.90)
Groningen are unbeaten in four with an unchanged side, scoring in every one of those games. Ajax have drawn two and lost one of their last three games in all competitions, with an average of one goal per game across that run. The draw has been the most frequent result for the visitors over the past month.
Ajax’s quality is the case against us, and the 22-5 head-to-head record is hard to ignore. But Groningen beat them 3-1 at this ground in March, and Ajax arrive without Dolberg, Berghuis, Blind and Caio Henrique three days after a defeat abroad.
Groningen still concede, so we don’t back them outright at 3.40. A 1-1 or 2-2 fits both teams’ recent pattern best, and at 3.90 the draw offers the value in this market. That price is longer than the 3.40 on a Groningen win, despite the hosts’ unbeaten run and Ajax’s three games without a victory.
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