- 1 Celta Vigo vs Deportivo Alaves: a draw specialist at home to a side without a win since September
- 2 Celta Vigo: one win in all competitions, and Borja Iglesias still in the treatment room
- 3 Deportivo Alaves: Boye has five goals, the rest of the forward line has gone quiet
- 4 Free La Liga Prediction: Celta Vigo vs Deportivo Alaves
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
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- 11 About visuals
Celta Vigo vs Deportivo Alaves: a draw specialist at home to a side without a win since September 
Alaves won 4-3 at Balaidos on 22 March, the last time these sides met in Vigo. Celta had won 1-0 in Vitoria four months before that, and the meeting before ended 1-1 at Mendizorroza in January 2025.
Sunday’s return, on La Liga matchday nine, kicks off at 16:15 Paris time at Abanca-Balaidos. Celta Vigo are ninth on eight points with one win, five draws and two defeats. Deportivo Alaves are seventh on 11 points, three ahead of their hosts.
Those 11 points hide a sharp decline. Alaves took 10 of them from their first four games, including a 1-0 win over Villarreal and a 5-2 thrashing of Osasuna. They haven’t won since: 2-1 at Racing de Santander, 1-0 at home to Valencia, 0-0 at Athletic Bilbao and 2-1 at home to Atletico Madrid.
Celta’s problem runs the other way. Claudio Giraldez’s side rarely lose, but they’ve won once in all competitions this season, 5-0 against Racing. Their last league outing was a 0-0 draw with Elche on 11 October, and on Thursday they lost 2-1 to Juventus in the Europa League.
That Thursday game matters for the selection. Celta have kept just 55% of their starting XI across the last six games, the clearest rotation pattern of the two squads, while Alaves have retained 76%.
Across 18 meetings in all competitions, Celta have won nine, Alaves six, with three draws. The market makes Celta favourites at 2.15, with the draw at 3.25 and Alaves at 3.30, and we agree with the direction.
Celta Vigo: one win in all competitions, and Borja Iglesias still in the treatment room 
Celta’s league results include 0-0 draws with Elche and Real Sociedad, 1-1 draws with Malaga and Getafe, a 2-0 defeat to Athletic Bilbao and the 5-0 against Racing. Two clean sheets in that run came in the goalless draws.
The goals have dried up since Racing. Pablo Duran is the leading scorer with two, and he’s doubtful with a calf problem. Ferran Jutgla has one in ten appearances.
The injury list is the biggest drag on the attack. Borja Iglesias, Carl Starfelt, Miguel Roman, Jones El Abdellaoui and Antanon are all out, and Caceres is a doubt. Iglesias’s absence leaves Giraldez without his most reliable penalty-box finisher, while Starfelt’s muscle injury removes an experienced centre-back from a defence that kept clean sheets against Elche, Racing and Real Sociedad.
The Europa League schedule adds pressure. Celta also lost 1-0 at Omonia in September, and they travel to Celtic next week for their third league-stage game, so further rotation is likely either side of Sunday.
Ionut Radu should start in goal, with Moriba and Febas in midfield and Alvarez and Gonzalez either side of Jutgla. Celta have drawn five of their eight league games.
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Deportivo Alaves: Boye has five goals, the rest of the forward line has gone quiet 
Quique Sanchez Flores’s side opened the season with ten points from four games, then took one point from the next four. Three of those four games were lost by a single goal.
Lucas Boye has five goals in seven appearances and carries most of the scoring burden. Toni Martinez, his likely strike partner, hasn’t scored in seven.
The defence will be patched up. Angel Perez is suspended after his red card against Atletico, Facundo Garces is unavailable, Mikel Rodriguez is out with an ankle injury and Koski has been reported as missing with a muscle problem, although he appears in some projected line-ups.
Alaves conceded twice at Racing, a newly promoted side, and the 0-0 at San Mames is the only clean sheet in their winless run. In the four league games since the Osasuna win, they’ve scored two and conceded five.
Alaves have finished 10th, 15th and 14th in their three seasons since returning from the Segunda Division, and this is their fourth straight top-flight campaign. The fast start this season was above that level, and the last month has pulled them back towards it.
One constant in this fixture: Nahuel Tenaglia has started the last four meetings with Celta, and he should line up at wing-back again in a back three with Otto and Valentini in front of Antonio Sivera.
Probable lineup Celta Vigo: Radu; Nunez, Lago, Alonso; Rueda, Febas, Moriba, Galan; Alvarez, Jutgla, Gonzalez
Probable lineup Deportivo Alaves: Sivera; Otto, Koski, Valentini; Tenaglia, Ibanez, Blanco, Suarez, Rebbach; Martinez, Boye
Free La Liga Prediction: Celta Vigo vs Deportivo Alaves
Our prediction: Celta Vigo to win (odds 2.15)
Alaves are four league games without a win and arrive without Angel Perez, Garces and Mikel Rodriguez, and possibly Koski. Their attack depends on Boye, and Martinez hasn’t scored all season. Three single-goal defeats in four games show a side that’s competitive but not finishing games off.
Celta’s single win is the obvious objection, and the draw at 3.25 is a live outcome given five stalemates already. We’d weigh the opponent more heavily: Celta held Real Sociedad and Elche without a goal, and Alaves have scored two in their last four league matches.
Rotation after Juventus is a risk, but Celta have a larger squad to absorb it than an Alaves side missing three defenders. At 2.15, the home win is the pick, with a 1-0 or 2-1 scoreline the most likely route. Celta also won the last meeting in Vitoria 1-0 in November 2025, and they hold nine wins to Alaves’s six across 18 meetings.
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