- 1 Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal: a blunt attack against the champions
- 2 Nottingham Forest: 5.3 goals below expected and sweating on Gibbs-White
- 3 Arsenal: nine wins from ten, but nothing before half-time
- 4 Free Premier League Prediction: Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal: a blunt attack against the champions 
Eight big chances. One goal. That’s what Nottingham Forest produced at Selhurst Park last weekend, and they still went home beaten 3-1.
The data paints a specific picture here. Forest have scored five league goals in six games, joint second-worst in the division, and they’re running 5.3 goals under their expected tally. No side in the Premier League has a bigger gap between chances made and chances taken.
Arsenal arrive at the City Ground on Sunday (kick-off 17:30 Paris time) chasing a third straight win. They’ve taken nine wins from ten across all competitions, and the 3-0 dismissal of Lille on Tuesday was done and dusted inside a seven-minute spell.
There’s a twist, though. The champions haven’t scored a first-half goal in any of their last five games in the league or the Champions League. Slow starts haven’t cost them much yet. Only once, in fact.
And then there’s the venue. Arsenal were held 0-0 at the City Ground in each of the last two seasons, and Forest have lost just one of their last six home meetings with the Gunners. Is this the ground where the champions’ second-half habit finally bites? The rest of the numbers say probably not.
Forest sit 15th, two points clear of the drop zone. Arsenal are three points behind leaders Manchester City. The gap in quality is obvious, but the goalless history at this ground means the market can’t simply wave it away.
Nottingham Forest: 5.3 goals below expected and sweating on Gibbs-White 
Oliver Glasner’s return to Crystal Palace went about as badly as it could. Forest carved out eight big chances in south London and converted one. There’s only one recorded case of a Premier League side creating more big chances in a game and still losing, and that was Blackburn back in 2012.
That tells you everything you need to know about where this team is. The approach work isn’t the issue. The finishing is.
The bigger worry is the manager’s own run. Glasner has won five of his last 29 Premier League matches in charge of Palace or Forest, losing 15 of them. That makes for uncomfortable reading, and it isn’t a stretch that started this summer. Forest’s league form reads L-D-D-W-L-L, with home defeats to Leeds and Coventry, both by a single goal.
Now the team news. Morgan Gibbs-White picked up a minor muscular problem at Selhurst Park and hadn’t trained before Friday. He’s created seven big chances and 15 open-play chances in the league this season, more than anyone else in the division in both columns. Without him, the supply line dries up.
Even if he plays, he won’t be at full speed. Nikola Milenkovic is back in training after a knee issue, which helps the back line, but Igor Jesus (calf) and Nicolo Savona (knee) are still out. Losing Jesus hurts more than it looks: he’s the forward who’d usually be on the end of what Gibbs-White creates.
Credit where it’s due on one front. Forest’s home record against Arsenal is stubborn, and back-to-back 0-0 draws here show they can frustrate this opponent. But stubborn and dangerous aren’t the same thing.
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Arsenal: nine wins from ten, but nothing before half-time 
Twenty of Arsenal’s 21 goals this season have come from open play. That’s the highest ratio of any Premier League team, and it’s a real shift for a side that used to lean so heavily on set-pieces.
The Lille win showed it in full. Jurrien Timber, Eberechi Eze and Bukayo Saka all scored from open play, and all three goals arrived in a seven-minute burst. Before that, Arsenal had come back from the 3-0 beating at Brighton to see off Leeds 2-1 at the Emirates.
The flaw is the clock. Five games running without a first-half goal is a habit, not a fluke. Against a Forest side that’s kept Arsenal out for 90 minutes on each of the last two visits, a slow start brings the old script back into play.
The absences are real, too. Piero Hincapie faces weeks out with an ankle injury picked up in the warm-down after the Leeds game, Christos Tzolis has a hamstring problem and William Saliba (back) is only training on his own. Martin Zubimendi hurt his ankle in that same warm-down and is described as much better, but he isn’t expected to start.
The good news? Saka, Martin Odegaard and Kai Havertz all came off the bench against Lille and changed that game, and they’re set to return to the starting XI. Fresh legs, quality in the final third. A side that knows what it’s about.
Defensively, the head-to-head backs them up. Arsenal are unbeaten in six against Forest and have kept four clean sheets in a row in this fixture. That’s not a coincidence when the opponent can’t finish.
Probable lineup Nottingham Forest: Sels; Aina, Diomande, Murillo; Munoz, Schlager, McAtee, Williams; Gibbs-White, Ndoye; Delap
Probable lineup Arsenal: Raya; White, Konsa, Gabriel, Calafiori; Guimaraes, Rice; Saka, Odegaard, Eze; Havertz
Free Premier League Prediction: Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal
Our prediction: Arsenal to win (odds around 1.58)
Break down the numbers and a clear edge emerges for Arsenal. Forest are the league’s most wasteful finishers, their chief creator is either missing or carrying a muscle problem, and their manager has lost 15 of his last 29 Premier League games. That’s a lot of weight on one side of the scale.
The 0-0 history at the City Ground is the only real argument against, and it’s the reason we aren’t touching a big handicap. Arsenal may need the second half again, as they have for five games now. But with Saka, Odegaard and Havertz back from the start and four straight clean sheets against this opponent, the champions should find a way through.
We’re backing the away win around 1.58. It isn’t a long price, but it reflects the gap between a team creating and finishing and one that only does half of that job.
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