- 1 Sparta Prague vs Lillestrom: the fastest starters in Prague against a Norwegian side that keeps falling behind
- 2 Sparta Prague: 13 goals in their last six home games despite a long injury list
- 3 Lillestrom: one league win in four, but only one defeat in six away from home
- 4 Free Europa League Prediction: Sparta Prague vs Lillestrom
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Sparta Prague vs Lillestrom: the fastest starters in Prague against a Norwegian side that keeps falling behind 
Sparta Prague have led at half-time in each of their last five competitive games. They’ve won all five, scored at least twice in every one, and kept four clean sheets. That’s the form Brian Priske’s side carry into Thursday’s Europa League meeting with Lillestrom at the epet ARENA, kick-off 18:45 Paris time.
It wasn’t always this smooth. Between 8 August and 6 September, Sparta lost four of six matches, including a 3-0 defeat to Lyon in the return leg of the Champions League third qualifying round. That result sent them into this competition, and for a few weeks the season looked like it might drift.
Then the turnaround. The highlight was a 4-1 win at Ararat-Armenia on matchday one, where defender Tobias Guddal scored twice before half-time and John Mercado and Patrik Vydra added more after the break. At the weekend they beat Pardubice 2-0 to sit third in the Czech league.
Lillestrom are on a very different journey. This is their first appearance in the main stage of a European competition since a UEFA Cup second-round exit in 2000-01. The return didn’t go to plan: a 2-1 home defeat to Torreense, a club that plays in Portugal’s second tier.
So we have one side purring and one side still finding its feet at this level. The bookmakers have Sparta at 1.33 to win, which is too short for us. The more interesting angle is how many goals this game produces.
Sparta Prague: 13 goals in their last six home games despite a long injury list 
At the epet ARENA, Sparta have won five of their last six competitive matches. They’ve scored 13 goals in that spell. They’ve also conceded six, which is worth keeping in mind.
The fast starts are what make this side dangerous. Opening the scoring in all five games of the current run means opponents have had to chase, and when they’ve chased, Sparta have punished them. Mercado has been central to that, scoring again against Pardubice alongside Jaroslav Zeleny.
What’s remarkable is that they’re doing it with a stretched squad. Magnus Kofod Andersen, Ondrej Penxa, Jakub Martinec, Elias Cobbaut and Emmanuel Uchenna are all long-term absentees. Adam Karabec missed the weekend with an ankle problem picked up on international duty, and Matej Rynes and Josimar Alcocer are doubts.
There’s good news at the back. Adam Sevinsky returns after serving a suspension in Yerevan. Sparta also have a league game three days after this, so some rotation is likely.
Will that matter? Probably less than you’d think. The system is working, and the players coming in know the role.
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Lillestrom: one league win in four, but only one defeat in six away from home 
Here’s the thing about Lillestrom: they travel better than they’ve played at home lately. They’ve lost just one of their last six away fixtures across all competitions and won three of them. That record deserves some respect.
The Torreense defeat was the opposite. Hans Erik Odegaard’s side conceded twice inside 50 minutes, and Thomas Olsen’s 79th-minute goal was little more than a consolation. Even when Torreense went down to ten men after Nuha Jatta’s red card in the 85th minute, Lillestrom couldn’t take advantage. Slow starts cost them. Again.
Domestic form is mixed. Their only win in the last four was a 5-1 cup thrashing of third-tier Baerum. Then came a 3-0 defeat at Viking and, at the weekend, a 2-2 draw with Molde where they came from behind twice. They sit sixth in the Eliteserien.
That Molde game says a lot. They concede early, they fight back, and they end up in open games. That’s a pattern that suits goals.
Centre-back Espen Garnas (knee) and winger Camil Jebara (groin) are out, with Linus Alperud a doubt. Olsen, who scored on matchday one, should lead the line. Like Sparta, Lillestrom have a league match three days later, so changes are possible here too.
Probable lineup Sparta Prague: Ramaj; Beijmo, Sorensen, Markgraf, Lopez; Delaney, Clem; Kral, Elyounoussi, Robert; Cornelius
Probable lineup Lillestrom: Dahlberg; Ranger, Foss, Gabrielsen, Elkaer; Ottosson; Bassi, Nyheim, Kitolano, Felix Va; Olsen
Free Europa League Prediction: Sparta Prague vs Lillestrom
Our prediction: Over 2.5 goals @ 1.57
Sparta have scored at least twice in each of their last five matches and have netted 13 times in six home games. With Lillestrom conceding early in both their European opener and their last league game, it’s reasonable to expect the hosts to reach two goals again.
The third goal is where Lillestrom come in. They scored in the defeat to Torreense, came back twice against Molde and have a good away record. Sparta have conceded six in those six home games, so the visitors should be able to find the net at some point, especially if the game opens up once the hosts are ahead.
At 1.33, a Sparta win offers no value for us. Over 2.5 goals at 1.57 backs the same storyline, an in-form home side pulling clear, while also rewarding the possibility of a Lillestrom response. That’s our pick.
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Information changes
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