- 1 Denver Broncos vs Seattle Seahawks: the champs walk into a thin secondary
- 2 Denver Broncos: two starting corners missing and an offense still stuck in neutral
- 3 Seattle Seahawks: 13-5-1 against the spread on the road under Macdonald
- 4 Free NFL Prediction: Denver Broncos vs Seattle Seahawks
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Denver Broncos vs Seattle Seahawks: the champs walk into a thin secondary 
Seattle allow 4.1 yards per play. Denver gain 4.9. That gap is the starting point for Thursday Night Football at Empower Field at Mile High, kick-off 8:15 p.m. ET, which is 02:15 Paris time on Friday.
Both sides sit at 3-2 after five weeks, and both were playing for a Super Bowl spot last January. Seattle won the whole thing. Denver lost the AFC title game to New England without Bo Nix. The records match. The profiles don’t.
The Seahawks score 26.8 points a game on 328 yards. The Broncos manage 18.5 points on 280.3 yards, and their offense sits in the bottom ten of the league by efficiency. On the other side of the ball, Seattle concede 21 points and 251.2 yards per game, while Denver give up 23.5 points and 375 yards. Break those numbers down and a clear edge emerges for the visitors.
So why is the line so tight? Seattle are only around 2.5 to 3 points on the road. The answer is turnovers and third downs. Seattle convert just 29.8 percent of their third downs, one of the worst rates in the league, and they gave the ball away four times in Sunday’s 32-29 home loss to San Francisco. Denver, meanwhile, rallied past the Chargers on the back of a defense that forced a fourth-down stop, a fumble and an interception on consecutive possessions.
The data paints a specific picture here: Seattle are the better team between the 20s, Denver are better at stealing games late. Both teams are on four days’ rest. And one injury cluster could tilt the whole thing.
Denver Broncos: two starting corners missing and an offense still stuck in neutral 
Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss both missed Week 5. That’s the headline, and it doesn’t bear close inspection from a Denver point of view. Surtain is dealing with an ankle problem, Moss with ribs, and both carry a questionable tag heading into a short week. Safety Talanoa Hufanga picked up a knock against the Chargers as well.
Without that trio, Denver’s pass defense loses its spine. The Broncos already allow 5.6 yards per play and 142.8 rushing yards per game at 4.8 a carry. Those are not the numbers of a unit that can afford to be shorthanded.
The offense isn’t bailing anyone out either. Sean Payton took over the play-calling in Week 5 and the result was 224 total yards. Bo Nix went 16 of 27 for 123 yards, with the tying score a five-yard touchdown to Courtland Sutton. J.K. Dobbins ran for 68 yards and a touchdown. That’s a win, sure. It isn’t a fix.
Credit where it’s due: Denver’s situational football is real. They convert 39.6 percent of third downs and score touchdowns on 63.6 percent of their red-zone trips. The Broncos are also 2-0 against the spread at home this season, and the Under has landed in four of their five games.
Can that formula work against the second-best defense in the league by EPA per play? It needs short fields. It needs pressure on Sam Darnold. And it needs the corners back. Pat Bryant and Jonah Coleman remain on injured reserve.
no renewal
Free for 2 weeks.
Seattle Seahawks: 13-5-1 against the spread on the road under Macdonald 
Seattle’s road record under Mike Macdonald tells you everything you need to know about this group: 13 covers from 19 games away from home. They travel well. They defend well. They don’t panic.
The Week 5 loss to the 49ers was ugly, but it was ugly in a specific way. Darnold completed 18 of 29 for 195 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions, and he was sacked five times. Emanuel Wilson and George Holani both fumbled, and both fumbles turned into San Francisco touchdowns. Even so, the Seahawks put up 29 points and their defense produced three sacks and three takeaways.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the reason this offense still scares people. Five catches for 102 yards and a score on Sunday, 603 receiving yards and seven touchdowns through five weeks, and 100-plus yards in all but one game. Facing a Denver secondary that might be missing both starting corners? That’s a matchup Seattle will target from the first snap.
The defense is the real anchor. Opponents convert just 29.4 percent of third downs against Seattle, third best in the league, and they average only 5.5 yards per pass attempt. Nix’s passing game sits at 6.1 yards per attempt and 199 yards per game. That’s not a profile that beats this coverage over four quarters.
The concerns are narrow but real. Zach Charbonnet won’t play as he works back from last season’s torn ACL, Drake Thomas is questionable with an ankle issue and the offensive line has to hold up after shipping five sacks. Seattle’s red-zone defense also allows touchdowns on 75 percent of trips. Fix the ball security and none of that should matter.
Probable lineup Denver Broncos: QB Bo Nix, RB J.K. Dobbins, WR Courtland Sutton (secondary: Pat Surtain II, Riley Moss and Talanoa Hufanga all questionable)
Probable lineup Seattle Seahawks: QB Sam Darnold, RB Emanuel Wilson, WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Zach Charbonnet out, Drake Thomas questionable)
Free NFL Prediction: Denver Broncos vs Seattle Seahawks
Our prediction: Seattle Seahawks to win (moneyline) @ 1.70
It’s not complicated: Seattle bring the better defense, the better receiver and the better road record, into a building where the home secondary is held together with tape. Denver’s offense has topped 224 yards once in a while but hasn’t sustained anything, and asking Nix to win a shootout against a unit allowing 4.1 yards per play is asking a lot.
We’d rather take the moneyline than lay the field goal. The spread has drifted from 1.5 to 3 in places, and a one-score Denver loss is a realistic script given how the Broncos close games. Seattle winning by a field goal still cashes this ticket.
The one risk worth naming is ball security. Four turnovers on Sunday is the kind of number that loses games, and Denver feed on exactly that. If Surtain and Moss are both declared out on Thursday, the case builds even further for the visitors.
in your pocket.
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