- 1 Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Bolton Wanderers: a promotion chaser against the league’s shakiest travellers
- 2 Wolverhampton Wanderers: 75% win rate at Molineux and a game in hand
- 3 Bolton Wanderers: 10 points from eight and a defence that folds on the road
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Bolton Wanderers
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Bolton Wanderers: a promotion chaser against the league’s shakiest travellers 
Bolton Wanderers have failed to score in 60% of their recent away matches. They’ve also shipped an average of 2.2 goals per game on the road. That’s the context for Tuesday’s trip to Molineux.
Wolverhampton Wanderers host Bolton on Tuesday 13 October at 20:45 Paris time, in round ten of the Championship. Both sides lost at the weekend, and both need a response. The gap between them, though, is wide.
Wolves sit fifth. They’re two points off third, four behind fourth-placed Middlesbrough, and they’ve got a game in hand on every team in the top half. Bolton are 17th, three points clear of the relegation zone.
It’s Wolves’ first season back in the second tier, and Cesar Peixoto’s side went into the international break on 14 points from seven games, with four wins and only one defeat. The return didn’t go to plan. A 1-0 loss at Middlesbrough on Saturday, settled by Will Lankshear on the hour, stopped a two-match winning run.
Bolton are newly promoted too, and they’re finding the hard yards tough. Saturday’s 2-1 home defeat to Stoke City, played with ten men from the 20th minute, sent them back the wrong way.
The data paints a specific picture here. At Molineux over their recent run, Wolves have averaged 2.5 goals scored and 0.75 conceded, and they haven’t failed to score in any of those home games. Bolton’s away numbers point in the opposite direction on both counts.
Wolverhampton Wanderers: 75% win rate at Molineux and a game in hand 
Molineux has been the foundation. A 4-1 win over Stoke, a 1-0 Black Country derby win over West Bromwich Albion, and three wins from four home outings in all competitions. That’s a side that knows what it’s about on home turf.
The away record is where the points have leaked. Wolves lost 4-2 at West Ham United, drew 2-2 at Birmingham City and went down 1-0 at Middlesbrough on Saturday. They also lost 1-0 at Everton in the EFL Cup.
Not a concern here.
Peixoto still has to work around two absences. Yerson Mosquera and Raul Jimenez are both injured, which means Adam Armstrong leads the line again. Rodrigo Gomes and Mateus Mane should keep their spots on the flanks, and Fer Lopez is pushing to start after scoring four goals in eight league games.
Lopez is the one to watch. With Jimenez out, the goals have to come from somewhere, and Lopez has been the most reliable source in open play. Two of Andre, Marshall Munetsi, Tommy Doyle, Jordan James and Jean-Ricner Bellegarde will fill the midfield berths.
The bigger picture favours Wolves too. The Saturday defeat at the Riverside was against a direct promotion rival. Bolton, on current form, are a different level of opposition. A side chasing automatic promotion can ill afford to drop points here.
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Bolton Wanderers: 10 points from eight and a defence that folds on the road 
Four straight league defeats, then two wins, then another loss. Bolton’s season has swung around without ever settling.
The run of defeats included a 4-0 thrashing at Millwall and a 3-2 loss at Sheffield United. Steven Schumacher’s side responded with a 1-0 win over Cardiff City and a 4-3 victory at Norwich City, their first away league win of the season. That one, though, still pushed their tally to ten conceded in four road games.
That record doesn’t bear close inspection. Across their recent away fixtures, Bolton average 0.8 points per game and concede 2.2 goals per match. Their expected goals against on the road sits at 1.55.
Saturday made it worse. Reduced to ten men in the 20th minute against Stoke, Bolton fell 2-0 behind to goals from Lamine Cisse and Ben Wilmot, and Theo Bair’s 92nd-minute strike came too late. A reaction is needed. Is Molineux the place to find it?
Chris Forino-Joseph remains out after missing the last three games, so Eoin Toal partners Ben Davies at centre-back. Sam Dalby continues up front, while Thierry Gale arrives in form after scoring five goals in three caps for Barbados during the international break. Gale is the danger man, no question. But he’ll need supply, and Bolton’s midfield has struggled to provide it away from home.
Probable lineup Wolverhampton Wanderers: Sa; Trippier, Djiga, Toti, Bueno; Andre, Munetsi; Gomes, Lopez, Mane; Armstrong
Probable lineup Bolton Wanderers: Bazunu; Larrazabal, Toal, Davies, Conway; Sheehan, Erhahon; Iling-Junior, Rodrigues, Gale; Dalby
Free Football Prediction: Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Bolton Wanderers
Our prediction: Wolverhampton Wanderers to win with a -1 Asian handicap
A straight Wolves win is priced at 1.38, which is too short to recommend on its own. The numbers support going further. Wolves average 2.5 goals per home game and have scored in every one of them, while Bolton concede 2.2 per game away and have failed to score in 60% of their road trips.
The last two meetings between these clubs ended 5-1 and 4-0 to Wolves. That was 2017 and 2018, so it’s history rather than evidence, but it fits the current gap in quality between a promotion chaser and a side three points above the drop.
Bolton keep games tight at times, and that’s the risk. Still, a ten-man defeat on Saturday, a defensive injury and an away record this poor point one way. Wolves by two or more, with the -1 handicap protecting a one-goal win. Check the price with your bookmaker before kick-off.
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