- 1 Aston Villa vs Fenerbahce: a Villa side that can’t keep a clean sheet meets a Fenerbahce side that rarely concedes
- 2 Aston Villa: 2.5 goals a game scored, 1.67 conceded, and still no home league win
- 3 Fenerbahce: three conceded in six, but Greenwood and Muriqi carry a real threat on the road
- 4 Free Champions League Prediction: Aston Villa vs Fenerbahce
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Aston Villa vs Fenerbahce: a Villa side that can’t keep a clean sheet meets a Fenerbahce side that rarely concedes 
Both teams have scored in each of Aston Villa’s last six matches. Every single one. That’s the stat that frames Wednesday night at Villa Park, and it’s the one Fenerbahce will have circled.
Kick-off is 21:00 Paris time on 14 October, matchday two of the league phase. Villa have three points after winning 3-2 in Bruges. Fenerbahce have one, from a 1-1 draw with Roma in Istanbul.
These two met in the Europa League in January and Villa won 1-0 in Istanbul. One goal, one clean sheet, job done. Don’t expect a repeat. This Villa side doesn’t do clean sheets anymore.
Here’s the odd part. Villa travel brilliantly. They’ve won at Tottenham, at Club Brugge, at Coventry in the Carabao Cup and at Sevilla in a friendly, scoring three every time. At home? No Premier League win yet this season. Arsenal beat them 1-0, Nottingham Forest won 2-1, and Brentford drew 2-2 on Saturday.
Fenerbahce arrive in good shape. They won 3-0 at Rizespor on Saturday, put eight past Eyupspor last month and got through Champions League qualifying by beating Sturm Graz twice and winning 2-1 in Lyon. Their defence has conceded three goals in six matches.
The match market has Villa around 1.74, Fenerbahce near 5.18 and the draw at 4.10. Is a team with no home league win really that short? We’d rather look elsewhere.
Aston Villa: 2.5 goals a game scored, 1.67 conceded, and still no home league win 
Saturday’s 2-2 draw with Brentford summed Villa up. Goals at one end, goals at the other, and a home crowd going home without three points. Again.
The numbers are stark. Villa have scored 15 goals in their last six games, 2.5 a match, and conceded ten. Both teams have found the net in all six. Over 2.5 goals has landed in all six too. This is the most predictable unpredictable team in England.
The attack is in good order. Nicolas Jackson, John McGinn and Emiliano Buendia all scored in Bruges on matchday one, and Pau Torres set up two goals from centre-back that night. Johan Manzambi, the £52m summer signing, has settled quickly in midfield. Villa create chances. They always do.
The problem is what happens behind them. Brighton put four past them in August. Forest won at Villa Park. Brentford, who’d just beaten Chelsea 3-0, scored twice on Saturday. That’s ten goals conceded in six games, and they haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of them.
There’s no fresh injury news to report, which means the same group that won in Bruges should line up again. That’s good for continuity. It’s bad news if you’re hoping the defence suddenly tightens up.
Can Villa Park finally become a fortress on a European night? Maybe. But even when Villa win, they concede. That’s the bit that matters here.
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Fenerbahce: three conceded in six, but Greenwood and Muriqi carry a real threat on the road 
Three goals conceded in six matches. Fenerbahce’s defence has been the story of their autumn, with clean sheets at Rizespor, against Eyupspor, at Gaziantep and in a friendly at Turan Tovuz.
The attack hasn’t been bad either. Fifteen goals in six, 2.5 a game, though eight of those came in one afternoon against Eyupspor. Take that out and the picture’s more modest. Still, they’ve only failed to score once in that run, the 0-0 at Gaziantep.
Mason Greenwood is the main man. He’s got two goals and two assists this season and has fired 15 shots, which tells you how much of the attack runs through him. Vedat Muriqi gives them a physical focal point, and Kerem Akturkoglu and Marco Asensio supply from deeper. That’s a frontline that can hurt Villa’s back four.
They’ve also shown they travel in Europe. Winning 2-1 in Lyon in the qualifying round was no small thing, and they went to Sturm Graz and won 1-0. This isn’t a side that freezes away from home.
The one real blemish is the 2-1 home defeat to Besiktas in early September. Derbies are derbies, though. Since then they’ve drawn with Roma in the Champions League and lost nothing.
Will Fenerbahce keep Villa out? Probably not. Nobody has managed it in six games. But will they score at Villa Park? Everybody else has.
Probable lineup Aston Villa: Not officially announced at time of publication. Expected spine: Pau Torres and Lindelof at centre-back, Kamara in midfield, McGinn and Buendia supporting, Nicolas Jackson up front.
Probable lineup Fenerbahce: Not officially announced at time of publication. Expected attack: Greenwood and Muriqi up front, with Akturkoglu and Asensio supplying from deeper.
Free Champions League Prediction: Aston Villa vs Fenerbahce
Our prediction: Both teams to score – Yes (odds around 1.65)
Villa have conceded in all of their last six matches and scored in all of them. Both teams have scored every single time. That isn’t a trend. It’s an identity. And it’s priced at 1.65 here because Fenerbahce’s defensive numbers are scaring people off.
Those numbers come largely from the Turkish league, and Villa’s attack is a different beast. Jackson, McGinn and Buendia all scored in Bruges, and Villa have scored in every one of their last six games, 15 goals in total. They’ll score. That half of the bet looks very safe.
The other half depends on Fenerbahce finding a goal, and with Greenwood, Muriqi and Asensio against a defence that’s shipped ten in six, they’ll get chances. Villa’s 1.74 for the win is short for a team without a home league win this season. Both teams to score at 1.65 is the smarter play.
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