- 1 AS Roma vs Real Madrid: Mourinho comes home with half a team missing
- 2 AS Roma: top of Serie A, four conceded in six and a Gasperini system that doesn’t bend
- 3 Real Madrid: the longest injury list in the competition and two away defeats already in La Liga
- 4 Free Champions League Prediction: AS Roma vs Real Madrid
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
AS Roma vs Real Madrid: Mourinho comes home with half a team missing 
Four goals conceded in six matches. That’s Roma’s defensive record going into Wednesday, and it’s the first number Jose Mourinho will have looked at when he saw this draw.
The Portuguese walks back into the Stadio Olimpico on 14 October, 21:00 Paris time, as Real Madrid’s head coach. This is the ground where he won the Conference League and reached a Europa League final. Most of the crowd still likes him. They’ll want him beaten all the same.
The table frames it. Roma went into the weekend top of Serie A with 13 points from five games and haven’t lost at home this season. Madrid sat fourth in La Liga, six points off Barcelona, before Saturday’s scrappy 1-0 win over Villarreal, a game that finished with Vinicius Junior sent off for pulling an opponent’s hair. That red card only counts in Spain. Still not a great look.
On matchday one, Roma drew 1-1 in Istanbul with Fenerbahce while Madrid beat Inter 2-1 at the Bernabeu. Three points against one. On paper, Madrid are the stronger side.
On the team sheet, they aren’t. Kylian Mbappe is training alone after hyperextending his knee on France duty. Federico Valverde’s out with a grade-three ankle sprain. Raul Asencio, Rodrygo and Ferland Mendy are all missing too. With El Clasico at Camp Nou on 25 October, nobody in Madrid is gambling on anyone.
The bookmakers still make Madrid favourites at around 1.94. Roma sit near 4.05, the draw about 4.20. That gap looks far too wide for a side missing its best forward and its engine room. Can Madrid really be that short?
AS Roma: top of Serie A, four conceded in six and a Gasperini system that doesn’t bend 
Four wins and two draws from the last six. Roma beat Fiorentina 4-0 and Atalanta 2-1 at home, won 4-0 at Lecce and 2-0 at Torino, then drew 2-2 with Inter at the Olimpico. Gian Piero Gasperini has built something here, quickly.
The 3-4-2-1 is the most settled shape in Italy. Mile Svilar in goal, a back three that’s conceded 0.67 goals a game across that run, wing-backs who push high and keep pushing. It’s not complicated. It just works.
There are worries. Captain Bryan Cristante has inflammation in the collateral ligament of his right knee, and Gasperini has said the club won’t take risks. If he’s out, Marten de Roon makes his first Roma start alongside Manu Kone. De Roon knows the system better than anyone from their Atalanta years. He’s never done it in this shirt, though.
Donyell Malen, the club’s top scorer, pulled out of the Netherlands squad with a knee problem and is being monitored. If he doesn’t make it, Artem Dovbyk leads the line. That’s a drop-off. Not a disaster.
The good news is Paulo Dybala. Gasperini says he’s training as well as at any point since July and looks happy again. He put both his shots on target in Istanbul on matchday one. Against a Madrid centre-back pairing that’s barely played together, Dybala drifting into the gap between midfield and defence is the obvious threat.
And Evan N’Dicka’s domestic ban for the Como trip doesn’t carry into Europe. He’s available. The Olimpico crowd tends to lift Roma’s press in the first half hour, which is exactly when a makeshift back four is at its most vulnerable.
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Real Madrid: the longest injury list in the competition and two away defeats already in La Liga 
Madrid’s injury list is the longest in the Champions League. That’s not a figure of speech. Mbappe, Valverde, Asencio, Rodrygo and Mendy are all unavailable, and Eder Militao is back in group sessions but nowhere near match sharpness.
The away form is the second problem. Madrid lost 2-1 at Atletico and 1-0 at Betis in La Liga, and needed a late winner to scrape past Elche 3-2. Away from the Bernabeu, this side hasn’t looked like Mourinho’s usual machine. Far from it.
There’s some relief at the back. Dean Huijsen missed the Villarreal game through a domestic suspension but is available in Europe, and Ibrahima Konate has returned to full training after his knee problem with France. Antonio Rudiger is the only senior centre-back who’s been there every week. That pairing could be Huijsen and Rudiger, and they haven’t played much together. Roma will notice.
Up front, Carlos Espi is the likely stand-in for Mbappe. He’s scored late winners at Espanyol and Elche, which tells you he’s got a knack. Starting a Champions League away game in Rome is a different ask. Jude Bellingham, fresh from starring in England’s 7-0 win over Croatia, will carry most of the creative load with Arda Guler and Vinicius.
Madrid still score. They’ve averaged 2.33 goals across their last six and they won’t go quiet here. But they’ve conceded 1.17 a game in that stretch too, and without Valverde’s legs in midfield, Aurelien Tchouameni and Eduardo Camavinga will spend a lot of the night running backwards.
History won’t help them much either. Yes, Madrid won both meetings with Roma in the 2018 group stage, 3-0 and 2-0. Different squads, different coaches, different era.
Probable lineup AS Roma: Svilar; Mancini, N’Dicka, Hermoso; Molina, Kone, De Roon, Wesley; Dybala, Soule; Malen (Dovbyk if Malen isn’t fit).
Probable lineup Real Madrid: Courtois; Dumfries, Huijsen, Rudiger, Cucurella; Tchouameni, Camavinga; Guler, Bellingham, Vinicius Junior; Espi.
Free Champions League Prediction: AS Roma vs Real Madrid
Our prediction: Roma or draw, double chance (odds around 1.96)
Roma are top of Serie A, unbeaten at home and conceding 0.67 goals a game over their last six. Madrid have lost twice on the road in La Liga already and arrive without Mbappe, without Valverde and without a settled centre-back pairing. The market’s still pricing them like the full-strength version. They aren’t.
Roma don’t need to win this to land the pick. A draw does the job, and against a side that’s built around Gasperini’s structure and a home crowd that’ll be loud from the first whistle, that’s a floor we’re comfortable with. The upside is a home win, and with Dybala in this kind of form, it’s live.
Madrid will create chances through Bellingham and Vinicius. That’s fine. What they won’t have is the player who turns half-chances into goals, and on a night like this, that’s the difference. Roma or the draw at 1.96 is the call.
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