- 1 Excelsior vs FC Groningen: two sides level on points, and both know where the goals come from
- 2 Excelsior: finishing above their numbers, and a home crowd waiting for a win
- 3 FC Groningen: fast starters with a stretched back line
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Excelsior vs FC Groningen
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Excelsior vs FC Groningen: two sides level on points, and both know where the goals come from 
Excelsior and FC Groningen arrive at Stadion Woudestein on exactly the same number of points. Both average 2.1 league goals per game. The bookmakers can’t split them either: 2.58 for the hosts, 2.55 for the visitors, 3.64 for the draw. Kick-off is Sunday at 16:45 Paris time.
Break down the numbers and the differences show up elsewhere. Excelsior concede 1.3 per game, sixth-best in the Eredivisie. Groningen concede 1.9. On paper, that’s a clear edge for the hosts at the back.
The trouble is momentum. Excelsior took nine points from their first four games, then just two from the next three: a 1-2 home loss to FC Utrecht and a 2-2 draw at Ajax either side of the break. Groningen went the other way, losing two on the spin early before collecting five points from nine, capped by a 3-0 win over PEC Zwolle.
The head-to-head is perfectly balanced. Two wins each in the last four meetings, no draws. Excelsior won 3-2 in Groningen in May. Groningen won 2-0 in Rotterdam last December.
And there’s one Groningen trend that stands out above everything else. They’ve opened the scoring in six of their league games this season, and 11 of their 15 goals have come before half-time. No side in the division front-loads its goals like this. Can Excelsior survive the first 45 minutes? That’s the question shaping the whole afternoon.
Excelsior: finishing above their numbers, and a home crowd waiting for a win 
Fifteen league goals from an expected goals total of 9.68. That gap tells you everything about how Ruben den Uil’s side have got to 11 points and the last European spot in the table.
It’s clinical finishing. It’s also not something you can bank on for a full season. Excelsior rank 13th for xG and 14th for shots per game (11.3), so they aren’t creating at the rate their scoreline suggests.
Irakli Yegoian is the man making it work. He’s been directly involved in close to half of the club’s goals, with five assists across the last ten games. The odd detail: six of his seven direct involvements have come away from home. At Woudestein, he hasn’t had the same impact.
That matters, because Excelsior’s home record is middling. A 1-2 loss to PSV, a 2-1 win over Sparta Rotterdam and the 1-2 defeat to Utrecht on 13 September. One win in three. Not much of a fortress.
Aymen Sliti is the in-form option. Four goals and two assists in his last eight matches for club and country, and he’s coming off a strong international window. Noah Naujoks, who scored twice in the opener against Cambuur, still hasn’t returned from injury.
The defensive base is real, though. Conceding 1.3 per game puts them in the top six in the league, a genuine foundation for a side that only came back up from the second tier in 2025. They’ll need it.
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FC Groningen: fast starters with a stretched back line 
Dick Lukkien’s side don’t hang around. Eleven first-half goals out of 15, the highest proportion in the Eredivisie, and they’ve broken the deadlock in four of the last five meetings with Excelsior.
The win over PEC Zwolle was their most complete display of the season. It also brought their first clean sheet in 12 matches, going back into last season. That stat makes uncomfortable reading. One shutout in a dozen tells you this defence leaks as a rule, not as an exception.
And the injury list hits exactly that area. Malcolm Jeng, Tyrique Mercera, Nikolas Brandis, Wouter Prins and Elvis van der Laan are all defenders, and all of them are out. Travis Hernes is missing too, while 18-year-old Ryan Metu sits out a seventh straight game. Five defenders gone. That’s a lot of improvising at the back.
Up front, Thom van Bergen is flying. Six goal contributions in seven matches, 28 shots this season, man of the match against Zwolle. He’s on course to beat his personal best of 15 contributions from 2023-24. Brynjolfur Willumsson matches him with four league goals.
The away record backs up the confidence. Groningen have won their last two trips to Excelsior by a combined 4-0. With Ajax and NEC up next, they’ll want points banked before that run.
Probable lineup Excelsior: Van Gassel; Moreira, Widell, Plug, Janssen; Yegoian, Meissen, Hartjes; Sliti, Garden, Thorsteinsson
Probable lineup FC Groningen: Vaessen; Csinger, Hateboer, Blokzijl, Schreuders; Land, De Jonge; Clement, Van Bergen, Van der Werff; Willumsson
Free Football Prediction: Excelsior vs FC Groningen
Our prediction: Both teams to score
The 1X2 market sits at 2.58, 3.64 and 2.55, which tells you nobody can separate these two on the result. We don’t try. The goals market is where the case builds.
Groningen score early and often, with 11 first-half goals and Van Bergen in the best form of his career. But they’ve kept one clean sheet in 12 matches and are missing five defenders. Excelsior have scored in every league game they’ve played at home this season and finish well above their chance quality.
Both sides average 2.1 goals per game, the last two meetings produced seven goals, and the visiting back line is held together with tape. Both teams to score is the pick.
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