- 1 Besiktas vs Kocaelispor: a perfect home record against the meanest defence in the league
- 2 Besiktas: 14 league goals, but two key midfielders are missing
- 3 Kocaelispor: four goals conceded in six games, and none at home
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Besiktas vs Kocaelispor
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Besiktas vs Kocaelispor: a perfect home record against the meanest defence in the league 
Seven home games, seven wins. Nineteen goals scored, three conceded. That’s what Besiktas have done at Tupras Stadyumu across all competitions this season, and it’s the first thing to understand before Sunday’s Super Lig meeting with Kocaelispor, kick-off 18:00 Paris time.
The second thing is that Kocaelispor aren’t a soft touch. Selcuk Inan’s side have won four of their opening six league matches and conceded only four goals, the fewest in the division. Both clubs sit on 12 points.
So this isn’t a giant hosting a makeweight. It’s two sides with genuine early-season credentials, and one of them is going to have its defining strength tested hard.
Besiktas come in off a setback. They lost 3-2 at Amed SK just before the international break, only their second league defeat of the campaign, and Galatasaray are already four points clear at the top, albeit with a game more played. Vincenzo Italiano won’t want that gap to grow.
There’s a detail in Kocaelispor’s record worth noticing straight away. All four of the goals they’ve conceded have come away from home. On the road, they’ve lost at Basaksehir on opening day and 1-0 at Galatasaray, with the only goal arriving in the 71st minute. They’ve been beaten, but they haven’t been opened up.
When these two met in Istanbul last season, Besiktas won 3-1. The question this time is whether the home attack can break down a block that’s been this disciplined.
Besiktas: 14 league goals, but two key midfielders are missing 
The international break hasn’t been kind to Italiano. Orkun Kokcu picked up a toe injury with Turkey, and Milot Rashica hurt his right thigh playing for Kosovo against Austria. Both are out. Wilfred Ndidi is also a doubt.
That’s a lot of midfield quality to lose in one go. If Kokcu and Ndidi both miss out, Juventus loanee Fabio Miretti is in line to start alongside Junior Olaitan. Besiktas will need Miretti to keep the ball moving quickly against a team that sits deep.
The attack is still strong. Fourteen league goals is the fourth-best tally in the division, and the run before the Amed defeat included a 6-2 home win over Corum Belediyespor, a 2-1 derby victory at Fenerbahce and a 3-0 win over Erzurumspor. A 4-1 Europa League win over Marseille in the same spell showed they can do it against good opposition too.
Vlahovic leads the line, with Trossard and Cerny providing the width. That’s real firepower.
The numbers before the break back that up. Besiktas had won four in a row across all competitions before the trip to Amed, and the three Super Lig wins in that run produced 11 goals between them. When this attack gets going, it doesn’t stop at one.
The worry is at the other end. Conceding three at Amed showed Besiktas can be got at on the road, even if that hasn’t happened at home. Italiano’s men have to stay switched on, because one breakaway goal for the visitors would change the whole afternoon.
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Kocaelispor: four goals conceded in six games, and none at home 
Defending is what this Kocaelispor side does best. Four goals against in six league matches is the meanest record in the Super Lig, and it’s been built on organisation rather than luck.
The results line up behind it. A 2-0 home win over Amed SK, 2-1 at Konyaspor, 1-0 against Samsunspor and 2-0 over Gaziantep before the break. They don’t score many, but they rarely need to.
The trouble is the injury list. Tanguy Zoukrou, Massadio Haidara, Rigoberto Rivas and Tobias Gulliksen are all reported to be sidelined. Bruno Petkovic is struggling with a muscle problem and goalkeeper Aleksandar Jovanovic is out with a knee injury. That’s a lot of experience potentially missing in one afternoon.
The response to setbacks has been impressive, though. After the narrow defeat in Istanbul against Galatasaray, Inan’s players went home and beat Gaziantep 2-0 without much fuss. This is a team that knows what it’s about and doesn’t panic.
Without Petkovic, the attacking burden falls on Aye up front, supported by Agyei and Sousa. That’s not a frontline that frightens anyone at Tupras Stadyumu.
Can they hold their shape for 90 minutes against this attack? They managed 70 minutes at Galatasaray. Doing it at a ground where Besiktas have conceded three goals in seven games is a tall order, but it’s also exactly the kind of game this side is set up for.
Probable lineup Besiktas: Nubel; Murillo, Agbadou, Topcu, Yilmaz; Ozcan; Cerny, Miretti, Olaitan, Trossard; Vlahovic
Probable lineup Kocaelispor: Oztasdelen; Yildiz, Dijksteel, Ortakaya, Maglica; Show; Agyei, Susoho, Kutlu, Sousa; Aye
Free Football Prediction: Besiktas vs Kocaelispor
Our prediction: Both teams to score – No (odds around 1.90)
Besiktas to win is the likeliest outcome, but at around 1.25 to 1.30 there’s no value in it. The better angle is the shape of the game. Besiktas have conceded just three goals in seven home matches, and Kocaelispor rarely score many on the road, with Petkovic doubtful and their regular goalkeeper out.
At the other end, Kocaelispor’s defence has been the best in the league, which points towards a tight scoreline even if Besiktas get the job done. A home win by one or two goals with nothing in reply fits both teams’ patterns.
Both teams to score “No” at around 1.90 is our pick. Under 2.5 goals, also around 1.90, is a reasonable alternative. We see Besiktas edging it 1-0 or 2-0.
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