- 1 Racing Santander vs Valencia: seven points at El Sardinero against the league’s quietest attack
- 2 Racing Santander: unbeaten at home, but 12 goals conceded in their last two away trips
- 3 Valencia: four goals in seven games and a new coach still finding his feet
- 4 Free Liga Prediction: Racing Santander vs Valencia
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Racing Santander vs Valencia: seven points at El Sardinero against the league’s quietest attack 
Seven points from seven games for Racing Santander. Every single one of them won at El Sardinero. That’s the first thing to understand about Sunday night’s La Liga meeting with Valencia, kick-off 21:00 Paris time.
The second thing is just as striking. Valencia have scored four league goals all season. Four, in seven matches. They sit 19th on four points, and the club changed coach in late September, handing the job to Javier Aguirre.
On paper, this is promoted side against established name. Racing won the Segunda Division last season and are back in the top flight for the first time since 2011-12. Valencia, for all their history, haven’t looked like a top-flight side for most of this campaign.
The record between them leans towards the visitors. Valencia are unbeaten in their last nine meetings with Racing, although the last one dates back to January 2012, when it finished 2-2. Across 92 meetings in all competitions, Racing have won 33, drawn 21 and lost 38.
History is one thing. Current form is another, and both sides come out of the international break with plenty to fix. Racing were thumped 5-0 at Celta Vigo just before it, three days after shipping seven at Barcelona. Valencia lost 3-2 at home to Real Sociedad.
So who blinks first? The answer probably depends on which version of Racing turns up: the one that’s leaked 21 goals, or the one that’s unbeaten at home.
Racing Santander: unbeaten at home, but 12 goals conceded in their last two away trips 
Jose Alberto Lopez’s side have two faces this season. Away from home, it’s been rough: defeats at Getafe, Rayo Vallecano, Barcelona and Celta Vigo, with that 7-2 and 5-0 back-to-back making for uncomfortable reading.
At El Sardinero, it’s a different team. Racing beat Elche 3-2 and Alaves 2-1 at home, and all seven of their points have come in Santander. Seven from three home games is a return plenty of established sides would take.
The attack carries most of the load. Yassir Zabiri, just 21, has scored six goals in seven appearances, and he’s the main reason Racing have found the net 11 times. That’s almost three times Valencia’s total. Sergio Canales, with one goal so far, should start again and give the side some experience in the middle of the park.
The defence is the worry. Twenty-one conceded in seven games is the kind of number that doesn’t bear close inspection, and Lopez needs a reaction after the Celta defeat. Simon Eriksson has a shoulder problem and needs a fitness check, but Andres Martin and Pedro Felipe are both available.
Both home wins came by a single goal, 3-2 against Elche and 2-1 against Alaves. That’s a pattern worth noting: Racing win at home, but they rarely do it quietly.
Racing don’t need to be perfect here. They need to be the home side they’ve been all season.
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Valencia: four goals in seven games and a new coach still finding his feet 
One win, one draw, five defeats. Valencia’s start has been genuinely poor, and there’s no sugarcoating it. Losses to Real Betis, Deportivo La Coruna, Barcelona, Sevilla and Real Sociedad have left them 19th, with a lone 1-0 win at Alaves to show for their trips.
Javier Aguirre has been brought in to fix it. The 67-year-old took over towards the end of September after his spell in charge of Mexico, and he knows La Liga well, having managed Mallorca from March 2022 to May 2024. He’s had the international break to work with the squad, which helps, but it’s still very early days.
The defence has actually held up better than the attack. Thirteen conceded in seven games isn’t great, yet it’s eight fewer than Racing. The real issue is at the other end: four goals scored, and neither Hugo Duro nor Ryunosuke Sato has scored this season. Both are expected to start up front on Sunday.
The injury list doesn’t help. Umar Sadiq, Sergi Canos, Diego Lopez and Dimitri Foulquier are all ruled out, while Luis Rioja and Arnaut Danjuma face late fitness tests. Losing Sadiq removes one of the few physical options Aguirre had in attack.
Away from Mestalla, Valencia have three points from three games, every one of them earned in that win in Vitoria.
That’s a problem they haven’t solved in seven weeks. A new voice in the dressing room can lift a group, but it can’t manufacture goals overnight.
Probable lineup Racing Santander: Agirrezabala; Mantilla, Belocian, Ramon, Salinas; Prati, Martin; Canales, Vicente; Garcia, Zabiri
Probable lineup Valencia: Dimitrievski; Maffeo, Tarrega, Haas, Gaya; Pepelu, Mayol, Rodriguez; Guerra; Duro, Sato
Free Liga Prediction: Racing Santander vs Valencia
Our prediction: Racing Santander to win
Racing have taken every point they own at El Sardinero, scoring five goals across their two home wins against Elche and Alaves. They have a forward in Zabiri who’s scoring almost a goal a game, and a crowd that’s waited 14 years to see this level of football again.
Valencia’s case rests mostly on reputation and a new coach bounce. Four goals in seven matches, a forward line that hasn’t scored, and four players ruled out don’t make for a convincing away trip. Their only win came at Alaves, a side Racing also beat.
Racing’s defence will probably concede, and that’s the risk in this pick. But Valencia have to create chances to punish it, and nothing in their season so far suggests they will do it often enough. We’re backing the home side to edge it.
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