- 1 FC Koln vs Borussia Monchengladbach: a Rhine derby between two defences that can’t stop leaking
- 2 FC Koln: three games without a win and both senior strikers out
- 3 Borussia Monchengladbach: 16 conceded, zero points and Blessin already unhappy
- 4 Free Football Prediction: FC Koln vs Borussia Monchengladbach
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
FC Koln vs Borussia Monchengladbach: a Rhine derby between two defences that can’t stop leaking 
Sixteen goals conceded in four Bundesliga games. Zero points. That’s Borussia Monchengladbach right now, the worst start in the club’s history, and they walk into the Rhine derby at the RheinEnergieStadion with a brand-new head coach and a list of injuries as long as your arm.
Kick-off is at 15:30 Paris time on Sunday 11 October. Gladbach are bottom. FC Koln aren’t much better off, 13th on four points and without a win in three. Lose this one and they could slip into the bottom three themselves.
It’s a derby with no shortage of anxiety. Koln opened the season with a 3-2 comeback win over Hoffenheim and have looked a lesser side ever since: a 4-1 hammering at Stuttgart, a 1-1 draw with Werder Bremen and then a 2-1 defeat at Hamburger SV, a team that hadn’t picked up a single point before that afternoon. That one stung.
Gladbach’s numbers are worse. Much worse. A 3-0 loss at Leipzig, a 4-3 home defeat to promoted Elversberg, a 5-0 thrashing at Freiburg that cost Eugen Polanski his job, then a 4-3 home loss to Mainz under interim coach Jan-Moritz Lichte. Alexander Blessin, the former St Pauli boss, now has to fix it. His first competitive game is a derby away from home. No pressure, then.
What do both sides have in common? Goals against. Koln have conceded nine in four, Gladbach sixteen. Neither team has kept a clean sheet in the league. The recent history of this fixture is tight too: Gladbach have won just one Rhine derby this decade, with two defeats and two draws. Nobody’s running away with this one.
FC Koln: three games without a win and both senior strikers out 
Rene Wagner’s side lost their two best finishing options in one go. Thijs Dallinga, who scored twice in the opening-day win over Hoffenheim, is out with an anterior cruciate ligament injury. Ragnar Ache has a thigh problem. That’s the entire first-choice strike force gone.
Marius Bulter is expected to lead the line instead. He’s a willing runner, but this is a big ask. Six league goals in four games isn’t a bad return for Koln, and a fair chunk of that came from Dallinga. Without him, the goals have to come from Said El Mala and the wide areas.
The back line has its own holes. Right-back Alessio Castro-Montes has a thigh issue and centre-back Timo Hubers is still rehabbing after knee surgery. Jahmai Simpson-Pusey and Luka Lochoshvili should pair up in the middle, with Sebastian Sebulonsen and Gideon Mensah at full-back.
Here’s the problem. This defence has shipped nine goals in four league games, four of them in a single afternoon at Stuttgart. It conceded twice at Hamburg, a side that had failed to score in its first three games. That takes some explaining.
Still, Koln are at home, and Gladbach are in a worse state. A win here would lift them clear of the danger zone and change the mood at the club overnight. Can they handle being favourites? Their recent record says not comfortably.
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Borussia Monchengladbach: 16 conceded, zero points and Blessin already unhappy 
Blessin has seen enough already. After a 1-1 friendly draw at his old club St Pauli during the break, he went public with his frustration, complaining that his side allowed too many chances and were sluggish in transition. That’s a new coach telling you exactly where the problem lies.
The numbers back him up. Sixteen goals conceded in four league games, the second-worst defensive record in the Bundesliga behind Union Berlin. Five at Freiburg. Four at home to Elversberg. Four more at home to Mainz. There’s no sugarcoating it.
And yet Gladbach score. Three against Elversberg, three against Mainz. Six goals in four games is exactly the same tally as Koln. This isn’t a side that can’t create. It’s a side that can’t defend what it creates.
The injury list makes Blessin’s job harder. Left wing-back Jens Castrop is recovering from a shoulder problem, right wingers Franck Honorat and Nicolas Kuhn both have muscle injuries, and midfielder Enzo Leopold is out for the season with an ACL tear. Ko Itakura is a doubt, though Blessin is hopeful. Isac Lidberg, who scored in the defeat to Mainz, is set to lead the line, with Tim Kleindienst a close call.
Expect a back three, with Joe Scally and Lukas Ullrich pushed out wide. A new system, a new coach and a weakened squad, all in a derby. It won’t get easier from here, but it can’t get much worse.
Probable lineup FC Koln: Schwabe; Sebulonsen, Simpson-Pusey, Lochoshvili, Mensah; Skhiri, Krauss; Maina, Moore, El Mala; Bulter
Probable lineup Borussia Monchengladbach: Nicolas; Itakura, Leszczynski, Diks; Scally, Sander, Neuhaus, Ullrich; Bolin, Hack; Lidberg
Free Football Prediction: FC Koln vs Borussia Monchengladbach
Our prediction: Both teams to score
Neither side has kept a clean sheet in the Bundesliga this season. Koln have conceded in all four games, Gladbach in all four, for a combined 25 goals against. Both attacks have scored six. When two defences this fragile meet, picking a winner is a gamble. Picking goals at both ends isn’t.
Gladbach have scored three goals in two of their four league games despite everything going wrong. Koln, even without Dallinga and Ache, scored at Hamburg and against Werder. Derby nerves and a new defensive system under Blessin point to errors, not control.
Both teams to score is the pick. Two sides with leaky back lines, two attacks that keep finding a way, and a derby atmosphere that rarely produces a tidy 1-0. Check the price before kick-off, but this is the angle.
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