- 1 Stade Toulousain vs Aviron Bayonnais: the champions’ fortress against the Top 14’s surprise package
- 2 Stade Toulousain: the regulars return, and Ernest-Wallon has lost once since the start of last season
- 3 Aviron Bayonnais: four wins from five, but a 70-28 scar from their first big away test
- 4 Free Rugby Prediction: Stade Toulousain vs Aviron Bayonnais
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Stade Toulousain vs Aviron Bayonnais: the champions’ fortress against the Top 14’s surprise package 
Twelve home wins and one defeat. That was Stade Toulousain’s record at Ernest-Wallon last season, the best in the Top 14, and they’ve added two more wins from two this time around. Aviron Bayonnais are next through the door on Sunday night, kick-off 21:05 Paris time.
Now look at Bayonne’s road record from last season. Two wins from 13 trips. Twelfth in the league away from home.
That’s the backdrop. Here’s the twist: this is a genuine top-of-the-table fixture. Toulouse lead the Top 14, Bayonne sit third, just two points behind. Nobody had the Basques this high after five rounds, and they deserve credit for it.
Four wins from five. Toulon edged 27-26, Clermont thumped 46-24, a 20-17 win at Racing 92 and a late surge to beat Stade Francais 35-32 last weekend. The only defeat was a horror show at Pau, 70-28.
Toulouse? Four straight Bouclier de Brennus titles, and four straight wins since losing 30-27 at La Rochelle on opening night. They’ve beaten Bordeaux-Begles 48-12, Vannes 29-23 away, Montpellier 40-18 and, last weekend, Castres 8-7 on the road with a heavily rotated, very young side.
So is this the night Bayonne prove they belong up there? It’d take one of the upsets of the season.
Stade Toulousain: the regulars return, and Ernest-Wallon has lost once since the start of last season 
The 8-7 win at Castres won’t make anybody’s highlight reel. It doesn’t need to. Ugo Mola sent out a young side, they ground out the win, and the senior names got a weekend off. That’s how a squad this deep manages a season.
Those senior names are back for Sunday. That’s bad news for Bayonne.
At home, the numbers are brutal. Bordeaux-Begles were beaten by 36 points. Montpellier by 22. Two home games, 88 points scored, 30 conceded. When this side plays in front of its own crowd, it doesn’t just win. It suffocates.
The official season data has Toulouse at 30 points and four tries per game, with 45 line breaks across five rounds. Those figures are dragged down by the rotated XV at Castres, which makes them even more impressive.
The only blemish remains that opening-night defeat at La Rochelle, 30-27, a game they lost by a single score away from home. Since then: four from four.
Ernest-Wallon at night, a full-strength Toulouse, a title race already taking shape. There’s no sugarcoating it for the visitors.
no renewal
Free for 2 weeks.
Aviron Bayonnais: four wins from five, but a 70-28 scar from their first big away test 
Bayonne came into this season wanting to put a disappointing campaign behind them and get back into the play-offs. Five rounds in, they’re on course. Third place, 31 points per game, four tries per match. Nobody’s laughing at that.
The wins have been tight, though. Toulon by one. Racing by three. Stade Francais by three, and only thanks to a strong finish. The Clermont result was the only comfortable one, and that came at home.
Then there’s Pau. Seventy points conceded in round two. It was the one time Bayonne faced a top-end side on the road, and they got torn apart. That result doesn’t bear close inspection, and it hasn’t been forgotten.
The away record from last season hangs over this trip too. Two wins in 13. The win in Paris was a step forward, but Racing 92 aren’t Toulouse, and a narrow victory there proves nothing about Sunday.
Discipline could also bite. Bayonne have picked up five yellow cards and a red in five rounds. Fourteen men against Toulouse is a short route to a heavy defeat.
The spirit is real. The scale of this task is something else entirely.
Probable lineup Stade Toulousain: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Aviron Bayonnais: Not announced at time of publication
Free Rugby Prediction: Stade Toulousain vs Aviron Bayonnais
Our prediction: Stade Toulousain to win by more than 12.5 points (handicap -12.5)
The straight Toulouse win is priced at around 1.03. There’s nothing to back there. The handicap is the only sensible angle, and the evidence supports a margin: Toulouse have won their two home games this season by 36 and 22 points.
Bayonne’s only away test against an elite side ended 70-28 at Pau, and their road record from last season, two wins from 13, tells you how they’ve historically travelled. Their wins this season have mostly come by one or three points.
With the senior names back after the rotation at Castres, Toulouse at home should pull clear in the second half. Toulouse cover the 12.5.
in your pocket.
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